Storm5
Member
My post had nothing to do with ensembles . I was simply pointing out the differences with the OPs
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
My post had nothing to do with ensembles . I was simply pointing out the differences with the OPs
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Storm5
Member
The gfs is all alone . It’s own ensembles don’t even support it. It’s not going below zero next weekend
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PARSONBROWN
Member
HSV
The long-term portion of the forecast continues to be a real
challenge between two competing airmasses and deterministic model
runs. Neither the GFS nor ECMWF want to give ground and trend towards
the other solution. The GFS continues to bring a bone chilling cold
airmass into the area. The minimum temperature output from the GFS
for Saturday morning would be the coldest airmass in the last 25
years. The model indicates a low of 3 degrees for Huntsville. The
last time the Huntsville area experienced a low of 3 degrees or below
was back in January of 1996. Even in this bitterly cold run of the
GFS, it looks like the only chance for wintry weather would be a
brief changeover to a mixture of rain/snow late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. Additionally, it`s very rare to have these kind
of airmasses without snow on the ground although it can happen.
The long-term portion of the forecast continues to be a real
challenge between two competing airmasses and deterministic model
runs. Neither the GFS nor ECMWF want to give ground and trend towards
the other solution. The GFS continues to bring a bone chilling cold
airmass into the area. The minimum temperature output from the GFS
for Saturday morning would be the coldest airmass in the last 25
years. The model indicates a low of 3 degrees for Huntsville. The
last time the Huntsville area experienced a low of 3 degrees or below
was back in January of 1996. Even in this bitterly cold run of the
GFS, it looks like the only chance for wintry weather would be a
brief changeover to a mixture of rain/snow late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. Additionally, it`s very rare to have these kind
of airmasses without snow on the ground although it can happen.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
That warm bubble over GA and SC!
The programmers clearly didn't want to ruin its reputation in this pattern. ?
Oh I know but the CMC is a huge outlier and tbh shouldn’t be taken serious, would be funny if something like it happened tho lol
Been quite consistent with cad
JLL1973
Member
You are correct . Gfs is on an island all by itself. Gfs is showing 0 next weekend. Not even going to be close. Probably lower 20s in reality
Stormlover
Member
The Canadian is on an island by itself, the euro is now getting closer to the GFS, though still a good ways off. It it's trend continues...
I want to see how this ULL over and near BC continues to back off the main TPV. Euro is trending further and further apart with it. So it was further South and east with the TPV
You know the mets at NWS offices throughout the country have to be struggling right now when trying to put together forecasts right now. A lot of times from reading their discussions you’ll notice that beyond 5 days, they’ll often use a blend of the models in the forecast. How can that be effective right now when you have so much discrepancies in the different models??
Stormlover
Member
Can we get a shortwave that stays in Texas and moves south in classic miller B fashion ? 
From RAH (basically what we already know):
Forecast confidence lessens considerably thereafter for the Friday
through Sunday period. While it appears that a stream of moisture
and waves of low pressure will be lifting NE along the SE US coastal
region during this time (thanks to yet another upper trough
deepening over the Southern Plains), the GFS suggests that enough
cold air may slip into our area behind Thursday`s system to warrant
p-type concerns with the wx system next weekend. It`s worth
pointing out though...that the GFS recently has been too aggressive
with pushing cold air into our area during the more distant parts of
the forecast, and then seems to pull back on the magnitude of the
cold air as events draw near. So for now, will mentioned p-type mix
in the wx grids for next weekend, but confidence in this happening
is well below average. Nevertheless...stay tuned
Forecast confidence lessens considerably thereafter for the Friday
through Sunday period. While it appears that a stream of moisture
and waves of low pressure will be lifting NE along the SE US coastal
region during this time (thanks to yet another upper trough
deepening over the Southern Plains), the GFS suggests that enough
cold air may slip into our area behind Thursday`s system to warrant
p-type concerns with the wx system next weekend. It`s worth
pointing out though...that the GFS recently has been too aggressive
with pushing cold air into our area during the more distant parts of
the forecast, and then seems to pull back on the magnitude of the
cold air as events draw near. So for now, will mentioned p-type mix
in the wx grids for next weekend, but confidence in this happening
is well below average. Nevertheless...stay tuned
Do you happen to know if the Miller B composite is the same for February as it is for early in January?
I would presume so considering wavelengths are similar.