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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

MSnowAtl said:
Is all of this Freezing Rain or some sleet mixed in?
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Since the high is retreating in THIS depiction, probably more ice for around our areas versus what the Icon would have been.
 
I mean if you think about it the ensembles show a super wide range of possibilities but almost all have something wintry from a Miller B .. the operstionals are going to be crazy
 
I noticed the GEFS looks worse yet again w/ the TPV lobe on the 6z vs the 0z run. Oth, I've noticed over the last several runs that the "worse" runs wrt TPV lobe location have usually been the 6z & 18z suites which don't include new RAOB data. I'm honestly more inclined to just pay attention to the 0z & 12z suites only at this juncture for that reason.
 
I full on expect models to start kicking the early week cold/East of the Apps for Sun/Mon/Tues down the road to mid-late next week or just disolve/kinda of burn out the TPV/Shuffle it to unfavorable position.
This has been happening repeatedly. All this TPV/Glory Pattern started showing up for today 2/9 as a deep south winter weather event/record Cold way back over a week-10 days ago. Then it kicked the can to the end of this week 2/13-2/14, then the can got kicked to early next week 2/15-2/16. We are getting inside the 5-7 day window of that time period ( 2/15-2/16). So I'm just sitting here waiting for Lucy to pull the football again today or tommorow. 6z GFS kinda hints at doing this outside the Carolina Ice storm . We will see /learn a lot from 12z today till 12z tommorow.
 
I’ve only seen the surface maps & 2m maps for the 0z doc, but based on the temps, I’d have to believe a lot of the precip falling for folks below freezing (temps less than 28 or so) would be sleet.
 
Good point Webb. All models, but yes euro as well have trouble with identifying/forecasting Low level artic air, espeacilly duration:

Did ya'll catch this Saturday on the 6z GFS?
1612869570052.png
 
The set up next week reminds me of Feb 2014 in a way where I absolutely think if we hold that same look, we will definitely end up having more of a frozen look more South.
 
NCSNOW said:
I full on expect models to start kicking the early week cold/East of the Apps for Sun/Mon/Tues down the road to mid-late next week or just disolve/kinda of burn out the TPV/Shuffle it to unfavorable position.
This has been happening repeatedly. All this TPV/Glory Pattern started showing up for today 2/9 as a deep south winter weather event/record Cold way back over a week-10 days ago. Then it kicked the can to the end of this week 2/13-2/14, then the can got kicked to early next week 2/15-2/16. We are getting inside the 5-7 day window of that time period ( 2/15-2/16). So I'm just sitting here waiting for Lucy to pull the football again today or tommorow. 6z GFS kinda hints at doing this outside the Carolina Ice storm . We will see /learn a lot from 12z today till 12z tommorow.
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Agreed. These fantasy ice storms never materialize...outside of the far N/W parts of the state. I expect at most a sleet pellet or two followed by heavy 35-40F rain.
 
KyloG said:
Agreed. These fantasy ice storms never materialize...outside of the far N/W parts of the state. I expect at most a sleet pellet or two followed by heavy 35-40F rain.
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All models have this now and have anchored in a big HP in the perfect location. This isn’t like previous events where things are marginal and the feed source just isn’t either strong enough or not in the right location. You can expect some form or either sleet or freezing rain right now
 
So the 6z GFS shows two ice storms. The first one occurring on Saturday for central NC up into VA. Lots of 1/4 to maybe 1/2" type stuff. Then the second for Monday and Tuesday. This would be a little stronger with the CAD allowing parts of the upstate, south NC, and east NC to get freezing rain; while central NC gets sleet. Lets see what happens...
 
iGRXY said:
All models have this now and have anchored in a big HP in the perfect location. This isn’t like previous events where things are marginal and the feed source just isn’t either strong enough or not in the right location. You can expect some form or either sleet or freezing rain right now
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Models have bee dreadful at this range. This will be no different. Yeah, the HP will have to slide east eventually but something will happen and this will turn into another rain event....hopefully.
 
NCSNOW said:
I full on expect models to start kicking the early week cold/East of the Apps for Sun/Mon/Tues down the road to mid-late next week or just disolve/kinda of burn out the TPV/Shuffle it to unfavorable position.
This has been happening repeatedly. All this TPV/Glory Pattern started showing up for today 2/9 as a deep south winter weather event/record Cold way back over a week-10 days ago. Then it kicked the can to the end of this week 2/13-2/14, then the can got kicked to early next week 2/15-2/16. We are getting inside the 5-7 day window of that time period ( 2/15-2/16). So I'm just sitting here waiting for Lucy to pull the football again today or tommorow. 6z GFS kinda hints at doing this outside the Carolina Ice storm . We will see /learn a lot from 12z today till 12z tommorow.
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I would agree with this most times, however, the Arctic air is in the lower 48 now and it came down east of the Rockies. With blocking trending stronger the closer we get to verification all winter, that would argue for a more muted SE ridge (as we’ve seen repeatedly) and for that air to come east. As for storm chances... I personally think that we in the western 2/3 of the Carolinas and N GA will probably have a significant winter storm in the next week to 10 days. However, like I said, I don’t believe a specific storm will be latched onto by the models until around 72 hours out.
 
Chazwin said:
I would agree with this most times, however, the Arctic air is in the lower 48 now and it came down east of the Rockies. With blocking trending stronger the closer we get to verification all winter, that would argue for a more muted SE ridge (as we’ve seen repeatedly) and for that air to come east. As for storm chances... I personally think that we in the western 2/3 of the Carolinas and N GA will probably have a significant winter storm in the next week to 10 days. However, like I said, I don’t believe a specific storm will be latched onto by the models until around 72 hours out.
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Yea eventually that TPV will move East due to the “boot” from the Aleutian low and a decaying -NAO ridge, really don’t like that look for CAD, that’s a cold looking CAD lol
 
That ice storm next week looks to mean business. I'm trying to remember the last big ice storm us here in upstate was? I'm wanting to think 2005 but I'm not sure.

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Chazwin said:
I would agree with this most times, however, the Arctic air is in the lower 48 now and it came down east of the Rockies. With blocking trending stronger the closer we get to verification all winter, that would argue for a more muted SE ridge (as we’ve seen repeatedly) and for that air to come east. As for storm chances... I personally think that we in the western 2/3 of the Carolinas and N GA will probably have a significant winter storm in the next week to 10 days. However, like I said, I don’t believe a specific storm will be latched onto by the models until around 72 hours out.
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Yeah and an ice storm is the last sig storm we need!

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We have both globals on board for a major winter storm next week and ccx we are 6 days out. I'm anxious to see what the short range models are going to show, if they start showing the ice storm then we may be in big trouble.

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