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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

GaWx said:
Big difference in 12Z Doc. It actually looks like a lot more than a ? step!
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I agree it’s a baby step or even a crawl in the right direction, but still it’s like yet another completely different solution from a model that, for as long as I’ve been following computer models, has been fairly steady without wild swings. We’ve been seeing this all season. There has to be something going on to cause the swings
 
Beyond basically day 3-4, we're flying totally blind in this pattern. Models are literally clueless wrt what to do w/ this TPV in southern Canada and I mean that in every sense of the word. If you're looking for run-run trends in the models look in the day 2-5 timeframe here, after that it's basically fantasy.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Beyond basically day 3-4, we're flying totally blind in this pattern. Models are literally clueless wrt what to do w/ this TPV in southern Canada and I mean that in every sense of the word. If you're looking for run-run trends in the models look in the day 2-5 timeframe here, after that it's basically fantasy.
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Apparently, but why?
 
JJr said:
Apparently, but why?
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There's very strong high-latitude blocking directly north of this feature, we basically have a rex block in Canada atm, those are notoriously difficult to predict and always give the models fits more than a few days out, we saw this in December when a giant ridge went up over the same exact place where this vortex currently is. This TPV lobe is also over a relatively more data sparse region of central Canada where fewer people live and observing sites are located, making it more difficult to properly sample this feature. I think the Rex blocking is playing the biggest role in the uncertainty here w/ some minor contribution from data availability
 
Lol this won’t work
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Webberweather53 said:
Beyond basically day 3-4, we're flying totally blind in this pattern. Models are literally clueless wrt what to do w/ this TPV in southern Canada and I mean that in every sense of the word. If you're looking for run-run trends in the models look in the day 2-5 timeframe here, after that it's basically fantasy.
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yep this times a million, I just hope that back in the 8-10 day range when all the models basically had the same look for a few runs they were having a moment of clarity lol.....really we wont know what is going to happen next weekend till mid week at best at this point since the models seem to have no idea either.....
 
It’s amazing how much CAD there’s been, you’d think we’d win from one soon
 
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