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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

The fact that global don’t really know how to develop CAD well makes me think those ensembles with ice are probably the way to go .. along with ICON and others .. I think no matter the trends coming up .. this will always trend colder in the end .. it will be interesting to see what this first CAD does and how models preform
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
The fact that global don’t really know how to develop CAD well makes me think those ensembles with ice are probably the way to go .. along with ICON and others .. I think no matter the trends coming up .. this will always trend colder in the end .. it will be interesting to see what this first CAD does and how models preform
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Boardwide ice storm?
 
Almost every member shows some sort of frozen precip. What could possibly go wrong?
 

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Myfrotho704_ said:
UK looks more threatening vs last run, but the temp map won’t load so it must have showed something lol View attachment 73364
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It'll be interesting to see if getting rid of that vorticity tail and across southern Canada and shifting the short wave ridge south might help get the sfc high progress east and lock in a little more. Also will be interesting to see if that removal of the vorticity is on the euro
 
Is Georgia, S.C. and N.C. even anywhere close to a winter storm anytime soon or is it just not gonna happen? Is it just a few details from being something big?
 
Stephenb888 said:
Is Georgia, S.C. and N.C. even anywhere close to a winter storm anytime soon or is it just not gonna happen? Is it just a few details from being something big?
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I mean Georgia(especially Central, Northern, or Western GA) might have a chance depending if the Arctic front move further eastward, tho it would will be in a form of sleet and freezing rain. But for the Carolinas outside of the Mountains, I say it's basically over and even the CAD areas(upstate South Carolina and Central North Carolina) will likely get rain with temperatures in the mid/upper 30s.
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS says SER keeps the bulk of cold out of FL/GA/SC/NC much of the run.
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I mean the Western half of Georgia might still a chance depending on the situation While the GEFS does keep all of Georgia average/above average, the western half of Georgia are not that far away from being way colder than what the models show. While I say TX, LA, MS ,TN, and western half of AL have the best chance of getting a winter storm, I wouldn't rule the eastern half of AL and western of GA yet. Just some weakening of SE ridge could make all of the difference in the world for the Interstate 75 corridor areas from Atlanta/Macon and point west.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
I'm actually genuinely confused (and frustrated) that the GEFS has this massive arctic breakout and then... just holds it there and doesn't propogate eastward. It is honestly the most maddening thing. How is that even possible?? I refuse to believe that will happen. Just no way.
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The apps suck donkeydoodledoo, they block any ounce of legit arctic cold but support marginal ass CADs, lol
 
mydoortotheworld said:
I'm actually genuinely confused (and frustrated) that the GEFS has this massive arctic breakout and then... just holds it there and doesn't propogate eastward. It is honestly the most maddening thing. How is that even possible?? I refuse to believe that will happen. Just no way.
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We'll see but a very warm Maritime Continent, La Nina (esp. in Feb), and the last few years of climo say the SER holding off Arctic air is very believable, especially deep into the SE. Consider the constant westward shifts the last week or so on the models. Cold air is being hindered.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
I'm actually genuinely confused (and frustrated) that the GEFS has this massive arctic breakout and then... just holds it there and doesn't propogate eastward. It is honestly the most maddening thing. How is that even possible?? I refuse to believe that will happen. Just no way.
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There is really nothing to force it east. Trough axis remains to our west through at least D8 so we have to play the long game of getting the cold air to move into the NE then wedge in. In other words we stink
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS says about the only BN air in GA/FL/SC/NC on any day is during afternoon during any CAD event in main SC/NC/NE GA CAD regions. The run really sucks if you like SE cold.
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Like I said, this mostly of applies to eastern GA and, Florida the Carolina. For Atlanta/Macon and points west, I say it's not a done deal yet. Just a 50-100 shift east will make all of the difference in the world for them. But yeah, overall things are looking horrible for cold/winter precipitation for those who live in Carolinas and Florida.
 
SD said:
I wouldn't give up this soon
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Thanks its just they're sayin we will be getting the tail end on our local news and it looks like models even with that are delaying the cold but we will see
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