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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

John1122 said:
12z was rain in Memphis Thursday morning while most other modeling has been consistently showing ice. The Euro has been doing really badly at the surface with this Arctic airmass. It was showing Union City at 37 at 7pm Tuesday evening and it verified at 29. Missing by 8 degrees at 6 hours is a huge miss. In couple of days leading up to this it's moved the ice from southern Ohio/Indiana to the Tennessee Kentucky border. I don't know why, but it's been swinging wildly at short leads this year and even more wildly at long leads. At one point during the Christmas snow event lead up it had about a 5 run stretch from just a few days out where it showed basically every kind of weather possible in December imby. I noted at the time that at least one run had to be right because it was changing so much that it showed everything that could happen. Ironically it's closest run before inside 24 hours to what actually happened was when it showed it at D9. The GFSV16 also showed it at day 9 but was pretty rock solid with it all the way home.

This was today's 12z run that showed rain in Memphis and Northern Mississippi, now it's showing heavy freezing rain about 80 miles south of where it had been showing it. The snow you're referring to was around 5 days after this event.

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I thought you were talking about the Monday storm 2/15. I agree the Euro had rain here until the recent run for Thursday 2/11.
 
iGRXY said:
A lot of doom and gloom just for the GFS to bring the storm back and the Icon to get colder. None of these models are worth anything beyond 72 hours. Not the ensembles, not the OP, none of them. They change on a dime, they look nothing like they did the previous run, they spit out a whole knew solution or evolution to get to a solution.
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Why God supplied us with the Groundhog. Woolyworm to for those in NW NC. This winter just as accurate
 
Webberweather53 said:
Getting closer to what Ollie wanted, now we just need the vortex to go back to what it was on previous runs. Hopefully we get enough cold air injected east of the mtns to give many a sleet fest instead of ZR. That's still very doable in this pattern
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Lets hope so. But some poor person('s) on here is gonna get a zr smackdown most likely if this all plays out.
By the way what is the 10:1 for sleet? If you get an inch of qpf isn't it like 4 inches of sleet? Is that the ratio.
 
So now the models have went from showing a storm, to not showing a storm, now are heading back to showing a storm. Now just waiting for a brief Southward trend followed by an abrupt and massive NW trend leaving only extreme Northern NC and VA in on the fun. Pretty much sums up this Winter.
 
Still early to make any hard and fast conclusions but there are a few things the models are telling us;
1. the TPV just wants to meander for a while and seems in no hurry
2. the extreme cold for the people east of the Apps just ain't going to happen anytime soon
3. there is a heck of a lot of energy flying around
4. finally, it seems all the models are struggling with high placement, strength and TPV location
As Larry said, the weather gonna do what the weather gonna do
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol if it’s right it’s lights out in CAD regions, it’s a outlier in a way tho with how cold the CAD is
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Is it the outlier...?

Euro has been useless at this range all winter...but if there is a 1040 high in this spot with a snow pack to our north with true arctic cold...I'm just saying.

I want this to all fall apart and we get into 60F's and frisbee golf weather but it's hard to ignore what we are seeing. I think it ultimately does fall apart somehow, we are lucky that way.

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KyloG said:
Is it the outlier...?

Euro has been useless at this range all winter...but if there is a 1040 high in this spot with a snow pack to our north with true arctic cold...I'm just saying.

I want this to all fall apart and we get into 60F's and frisbee golf weather but it's hard to ignore what we are seeing. I think it ultimately does fall apart somehow, we are lucky that way.

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I’d consider a couple inches of sleet a big win in a setup like this and very attainable imo. Been a while since we’ve had a sleet storm from nearly start to finish around here.
 
I could be wrong, but I feel like these models are gonna flip flop all the way until Sat/Sun and then out of nowhere show the artic air again blasting in and we are gonna get hit hard with winter weather early next week. It has to happen eventually, right? ?
 
Just a couple reasons why I think a winter storm is honestly more likely than not, even east of the apps.
1. The models are flipping more than a gymnastics team at a regional tournament. You get completely different looks almost every run now. First the TPV was going to be too far west, then it was too slow moving east, then it was too weak once it started speeding up, then it randomly wants to stop in the Great Lakes and not move for 2 days. they just don't know what to do with it at this point.
2. A 1050 HP looks likely at this point with substantial cold both to our north and northwest.
The Snow pack over the northeast and midatlantic is massive and models are not going to be good at picking up on that even in a normal wedge without this massive blast of arctic air.
3. The globals have tried to flex the SER all winter in the medium range and everytime it starts getting beat down once we get into the 3-4 day range and things come in colder. We have had 2 or 3 events this year where the air mass was exceptionally marginal but still ended with a 32/33 degree rain instead of the 36-39 degree rain like they showed. Including last weekend's events that had way more cold air the closer we got to the event. That's the theme of this winter.
4. Globals do not handle normal CAD well at all. They underestimate the level of cold air at the surface, the try to erode it too fast, they try to drive LP directly into it. Now a 1040 HP sitting in the Northeast with a snow pack just screams colder than modeled.
5. Finally these models, including the Euro, are already underestimating just how cold the air mass truly is by being off as much as 10-20 degrees at initialization back over the midwest and central US.

Point of this post is to show you that right now we have the coldest air in the North America sitting just to our north, with a snow pack, models flip flopping every run, and a consistent trend of getting colder the closer we get to events. That tells me that a winter storm both in the western southeast and in the CAD areas is a lot more likely than what the models are showing on their individual runs.
 
gawxnative said:
It is almost going to be "nowcasting" in North 1/3 of GA, with CAD vs Overrunning.. Shift in track of surface low 50-75 miles will make all the difference
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Would like to believe our model technology is a little better than nowcasting for an event like this, but do believe we are talking 48-72hrs out before having some medium confidence in the forecast.
 
iGRXY said:
Just a couple reasons why I think a winter storm is honestly more likely than not, even east of the apps.
1. The models are flipping more than a gymnastics team at a regional tournament. You get completely different looks almost every run now. First the TPV was going to be too far west, then it was too slow moving east, then it was too weak once it started speeding up, then it randomly wants to stop in the Great Lakes and not move for 2 days. they just don't know what to do with it at this point.
2. A 1050 HP looks likely at this point with substantial cold both to our north and northwest.
The Snow pack over the northeast and midatlantic is massive and models are not going to be good at picking up on that even in a normal wedge without this massive blast of arctic air.
3. The globals have tried to flex the SER all winter in the medium range and everytime it starts getting beat down once we get into the 3-4 day range and things come in colder. We have had 2 or 3 events this year where the air mass was exceptionally marginal but still ended with a 32/33 degree rain instead of the 36-39 degree rain like they showed. Including last weekend's events that had way more cold air the closer we got to the event. That's the theme of this winter.
4. Globals do not handle normal CAD well at all. They underestimate the level of cold air at the surface, the try to erode it too fast, they try to drive LP directly into it. Now a 1040 HP sitting in the Northeast with a snow pack just screams colder than modeled.
5. Finally these models, including the Euro, are already underestimating just how cold the air mass truly is by being off as much as 10-20 degrees at initialization back over the midwest and central US.

Point of this post is to show you that right now we have the coldest air in the North America sitting just to our north, with a snow pack, models flip flopping every run, and a consistent trend of getting colder the closer we get to events. That tells me that a winter storm both in the western southeast and in the CAD areas is a lot more likely than what the models are showing on their individual runs.
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Is it possible there's a winter storm in the western southeast and east of the apps and someone in the middle like Atlanta gets left out?
 
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