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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

PV for the Euro 12Z today for the the 13th is east of where it was this time yesterday. CAD might be stronger on Euro compared to yesterday

Edit: See a bit more SE ridging on this run,, so I'm not sure if how much we will improve on the Euro 12Z today compared to yesterday

ecmwf_z500a_us_5.pngecmwf_z500a_us_4.png
 
PARSONBROWN said:
Jason Simpson.........

Going to go out a limb here and call for no significant snow or ice in Alabama through the first part of next week. There is a window for a little freezing rain or sleet late Friday/early Saturday, but that's it - and even that is marginal and looks low-to-no impact right now.

I've read several comments from folks who hear we're getting snow or we're getting ice from somewhere...it's not impossible, but it is not a realistic scenario as I see it this Wednesday morning, February 10th.

Might I change my mind? Maybe. Probably not, though. Sometimes there are slam dunk, obvious threats on the horizon. Nothing that the medium range forecast guidance shows me is obvious. The pattern supports colder-than-average weather. It supports some wet weather. As to whether those will time out just right to produce a winter storm for Alabama, it's not perfectly clear.

So, to recap:

Jason doesn't expect the weather to be all that bad Friday night/Saturday. A little ice/sleet? Possible. Travel problems? Unlikely.

Jason also calls bull on most everything the GFS model has
been showing for Alabama and Southern Tennessee for the weekend/early next week.

Jason says he does not expect the modeling that shows a major winter weather event or temperatures in the single digits to be correct. A much more legitimate solution is similar to the cold we've already had this winter: 20s at night, 30s/40s by day.

Jason also thinks we probably have a better shot at thunderstorms with next week's system than an ice or snow storm.
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He's almost certainly correct. Lets see some model predictions inside of 48 hours and there will be a reason to get excited.
 
Given what we're seeing out of the globals already & how badly they've underestimated this shallow, cold air mass in the southern plains, I'd give a small nod to sleet over freezing rain in the NC piedmont for the moment, esp west of Raleigh-Durham in places like Charlotte & Greensboro. Oth, it's honestly still too early to be confident in that but that's my current gut feeling based on what I'm seeing evolve here. I'm definitely not liking where I currently stand here in Fayetteville though.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given what we're seeing out of the globals already & how badly they've underestimated this shallow, cold air mass in the southern plains, I'd give a small nod to sleet over freezing rain in the NC piedmont for the moment, esp west of Raleigh-Durham in places like Charlotte & Greensboro. Oth, it's honestly still too early to be confident in that but that's my current gut feeling based on what I'm seeing evolve here. I'm definitely not liking where I currently stand here in Fayetteville though.
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GSP looking like sleet as well? I know we are usually borderline here between sleet and ZR
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given what we're seeing out of the globals already & how badly they've underestimated this shallow, cold air mass in the southern plains, I'd give a small nod to sleet over freezing rain in the NC piedmont for the moment, esp west of Raleigh-Durham in places like Charlotte & Greensboro. Oth, it's honestly still too early to be confident in that but that's my current gut feeling based on what I'm seeing evolve here. I'm definitely not liking where I currently stand here in Fayetteville though.
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You think CAD areas of NEGA are in a good spot?
 
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