Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[JLL1973]

anyone have a euro ice map for the midsouth area

 

[Webberweather53]

GSP looking like sleet as well? I know we are usually borderline here between sleet and ZR

Sleet vs ZR is always a difficult forecast because even if you get the profiles and precip rates exactly right, the distribution of cloud condensation nuclei types can still hamper this and give you one or the other even if you leave almost everything between 2 different setups exactly the same.

 

[Storm5]

So you are saying the NWS doesn't know what they are talking about? How on earth can you claim he's almost certainly correct if you won't know until 48 hours out?

Both sides have an argument. Take it to the banter thread please


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[Jessy89]

Euro isn’t really anything like the ukmet. Looks like cold rain mostly


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[Webberweather53]

The Euro's piss poor performance in the southern plains this week gives me little reason to believe its surface output in the Carolinas if significant CAD is realized.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Nasty NC CAD ice storm per Euro.

 

[deltadog03]

EURO a big improvement everywhere.

 

[Jessy89]

Asheville east and north have ice


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[Snowfan]

Euro was a inland cutter and looks nothing like the UKMET.

 

[deltadog03]

The Euro's piss poor performance in the southern plains this week gives me little reason to believe its surface output in the Carolinas if significant CAD is realized.

I think there is a very REAL shot at getting that down to me as well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Less impressive vs other models but colder then 00z

 

[Snownut]

Euro isn’t really anything like the ukmet. Looks like cold rain mostly


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What makes you think it's cold rain?

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[iGRXY]

As bad as the euro has been with temps and these are sitting in the mid 30’s in the upstate, this isn’t a very good sign if you don’t want an ice storm. Euro took a big step to that here

 

[Snowfan]

I think the ICON/UKMET is more realistic tbh. With all of the snow cover up north, I believe the CAD will be stronger than forecasted on most of the global.s

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Euro firing warning shots for a big ice threat imo. Not a full cave but it’s much colder and shows The ice threat even with its low skill handling of low level cold

 

[packfan98]

hmm...Euro starts to cut and then seems to get shunted due east between 138 and 144. The next frame continued the primary low into Ohio instead of forming a secondary low of the SC coast. Look for that in future runs if the shortwave energy weakens any more.

 

[Webberweather53]

I think there is a very REAL shot at getting that down to me as well.

Yeah absolutely, there certainly is if we make a few tweaks to the synoptic setup. This kind of air mass coupled w/ the snow cover we'll have all the way down to Virginia is very encouraging for a deep, extensive CAD that could make it very deep into SC & GA.

 

[Snownut]

As bad as the euro has been with temps and these are sitting in the mid 30’s in the upstate, this isn’t a very good sign if you don’t want an ice storm. Euro took a big step to that here

I still think these models are underestimating the CAD as they usually do.

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[Mitch West]

It's colder on the Euro, that's all that matters at this point. Like @Myfrotho704_ said, no full cave, but it was a "trend" to the other models (besides the GFS). We can work with that start for now.

 

[iGRXY]

There’s just too much HP over top and snow pack to think things aren’t going to be way colder than these globals are showing and they’re split between major ice storm and right above freezing