Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[deltadog03]

Ukmet shows how this could be super nasty for many areas. However, I expect it, and all the models to flop around until maybe this weekend.

 

[Snowfan]

I was actually about to give up but after the UKMET trended to the ICON, I started to think the ICON is maybe on to something. Interesting to see what the Euro shows.

 

[SnowNiner]

It is slightly negative and looks to hang around slightly neg/neutral for the near future.View attachment 73515View attachment 73515

This may be a separate discussion in the flaming dumpster fire February thread. But the NAO has really been very weak most of the winter. One standard deviation? Perhaps that's why it's really hasn't done much for us this year other than keep us cool. No solid, consistent 50/50 low, only good Atlantic ridging.

 

[Snownut]

If that ukmet verifies, then the CAD areas are in trouble. That would cause lots of ice

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[NorthDFWwx]

Yeah this could make up for 5 years of nothing in one swoop the way it's looking

I've been trying not to get into the hype but it's becoming impossible lol

Same here.

 

[CaryWx]

UKMET just threw a face card down on the table in front of the euro. Let's see what happens

 

[FamouslyHot]

This may be a separate discussion in the flaming dumpster fire February thread. But the NAO has really been very weak most of the winter. One standard deviation? Perhaps that's why it's really hasn't done much for us this year other than keep us cool. No solid, consistent 50/50 low, only good Atlantic ridging.

I'd say it's done some good keeping us cool rather than baking in a SE ridge, but it hasn't helped to deliver strong cold due to the Pacific. Now for this storm the NAO I would say is a non-issue. The location of the TPV is what will be the main driver of this event.

 

[Jessy89]

If that ukmet verifies, then the CAD areas are in trouble. That would cause lots of ice

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Where was the track of the low on the ukmet? If we can get it off the coast we could get mostly sleet or even snow. But seems unlikely because it’s probably gonna cut


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[KyloG]

Wouldn’t get your hopes up on the Euro....for whoever is rooting for ice. It’s been terrible at this range all winter. This ain’t the Euro from our youths...

 

[MichaelJ]

Here are the NAO charts from Weatherbell

 

[Chazwin]

It is more likely Freezing Rain with sleet in NC like Charlotte for now.

I agree... any snow with this type of set up would come from an initial band due to WAA. Which could be intense, but also wouldn’t be picked until inside the very short term

 

[Tarheelwx]

While I can only see the Pivotal Freebies, it would appear the UKMET is very, very close to the Canadian except for a much quicker transfer to the coast and therefore pulling deeper cold air in east of the mountains. This is very close to my thinking, but a bit further south.
TW

 

[lj0109]

12Z Icon once again holds serve with a legit ZR threat deep into the Carolinas and Georgia. Interesting to see the UKMet showing this signal as well. As @deltadog03 @Stormsfury @Webberweather53 and others have stated, the waffling will most definitely continue the next few days but its tough to ignore the potential significant CAD signal showing this far out. Thanks to all for the continued great discussion.

 

[Parker]

Obviously, this is a lot of ice, but look at the GEFS chart for Memphis. DAMN

 

[ATLwxfan]

Mellish says he would not trust the models at all until 72 hours. They are not able to interpret our current weather patterns.


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[Meteorologist1999]

What did the GEFS members show?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Already some differences right off the bat

 

[deltadog03]

The good DOC is up...let's see what the song choice will be.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here comes the differences

 

[Faco Thomas]

Already some differences right off the bat View attachment 73526

It appears the 12Z Euro starts with the PV already east of the 0Z run with a slightly stronger Northwestern Ridge. The Euro can't even the very short range pattern right. So it's safe that we may should/should've tossed the 0Z Euro being that it probably was a fluke.