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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

packfan98 said:
Well, the UKMET put SC and GA back into play. I definitely wasn't expecting that. Here's the "snowfall" map, but most of this would be ip/fzrn:
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
Yeah and hopefully more sleet than ZR!

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Jason Simpson.........

Going to go out a limb here and call for no significant snow or ice in Alabama through the first part of next week. There is a window for a little freezing rain or sleet late Friday/early Saturday, but that's it - and even that is marginal and looks low-to-no impact right now.

I've read several comments from folks who hear we're getting snow or we're getting ice from somewhere...it's not impossible, but it is not a realistic scenario as I see it this Wednesday morning, February 10th.

Might I change my mind? Maybe. Probably not, though. Sometimes there are slam dunk, obvious threats on the horizon. Nothing that the medium range forecast guidance shows me is obvious. The pattern supports colder-than-average weather. It supports some wet weather. As to whether those will time out just right to produce a winter storm for Alabama, it's not perfectly clear.

So, to recap:

Jason doesn't expect the weather to be all that bad Friday night/Saturday. A little ice/sleet? Possible. Travel problems? Unlikely.

Jason also calls bull on most everything the GFS model has
been showing for Alabama and Southern Tennessee for the weekend/early next week.

Jason says he does not expect the modeling that shows a major winter weather event or temperatures in the single digits to be correct. A much more legitimate solution is similar to the cold we've already had this winter: 20s at night, 30s/40s by day.

Jason also thinks we probably have a better shot at thunderstorms with next week's system than an ice or snow storm.
 
Faco Thomas said:
I'm very shocked the UKMET showed this sort of solution. I was expecting that the Midlands of SC would get another cold rain event. Assuming the UKMET doesn't completely change within the next 12-24,I probably have to rethink about this being a pure rain event for the Augusta/Aiken/Columbia area.
Click to expand...
This has potential to be a STRONG Cad event. 1040+ mb high with snowpack to the north is how you get CAD that supports wintry wx down into the midlands. Even if it cuts CAE has potential to see some onset ice. If it doesn't cut then the whole Midlands could be in store for something larger.
 
PARSONBROWN said:
Jason Simpson.........

Going to go out a limb here and call for no significant snow or ice in Alabama through the first part of next week. There is a window for a little freezing rain or sleet late Friday/early Saturday, but that's it - and even that is marginal and looks low-to-no impact right now.

I've read several comments from folks who hear we're getting snow or we're getting ice from somewhere...it's not impossible, but it is not a realistic scenario as I see it this Wednesday morning, February 10th.

Might I change my mind? Maybe. Probably not, though. Sometimes there are slam dunk, obvious threats on the horizon. Nothing that the medium range forecast guidance shows me is obvious. The pattern supports colder-than-average weather. It supports some wet weather. As to whether those will time out just right to produce a winter storm for Alabama, it's not perfectly clear.

So, to recap:

Jason doesn't expect the weather to be all that bad Friday night/Saturday. A little ice/sleet? Possible. Travel problems? Unlikely.

Jason also calls bull on most everything the GFS model has
been showing for Alabama and Southern Tennessee for the weekend/early next week.

Jason says he does not expect the modeling that shows a major winter weather event or temperatures in the single digits to be correct. A much more legitimate solution is similar to the cold we've already had this winter: 20s at night, 30s/40s by day.

Jason also thinks we probably have a better shot at thunderstorms with next week's system than an ice or snow storm.
Click to expand...
He seems angry
 
FamouslyHot said:
This has potential to be a STRONG Cad event. 1040+ mb high with snowpack to the north is how you get CAD that supports wintry wx down into the midlands. Even if it cuts CAE has potential to see some onset ice. If it doesn't cut then the whole Midlands could be in store for something larger.
Click to expand...
I would say the Icon have been very very consistent and now Ukmet and V16 Gfs just moved toward its idea. Wow the effect of the snow cover further north.
 
I think it'd be pretty fitting if as it turned out, we end up flip flopping from mainly having the GFS (although the Euro had also said yes a couple times), to the Euro/UKMET/ICON.
 
PARSONBROWN said:
Jason Simpson.........

Going to go out a limb here and call for no significant snow or ice in Alabama through the first part of next week. There is a window for a little freezing rain or sleet late Friday/early Saturday, but that's it - and even that is marginal and looks low-to-no impact right now.

I've read several comments from folks who hear we're getting snow or we're getting ice from somewhere...it's not impossible, but it is not a realistic scenario as I see it this Wednesday morning, February 10th.

Might I change my mind? Maybe. Probably not, though. Sometimes there are slam dunk, obvious threats on the horizon. Nothing that the medium range forecast guidance shows me is obvious. The pattern supports colder-than-average weather. It supports some wet weather. As to whether those will time out just right to produce a winter storm for Alabama, it's not perfectly clear.

So, to recap:

Jason doesn't expect the weather to be all that bad Friday night/Saturday. A little ice/sleet? Possible. Travel problems? Unlikely.

Jason also calls bull on most everything the GFS model has
been showing for Alabama and Southern Tennessee for the weekend/early next week.

Jason says he does not expect the modeling that shows a major winter weather event or temperatures in the single digits to be correct. A much more legitimate solution is similar to the cold we've already had this winter: 20s at night, 30s/40s by day.

Jason also thinks we probably have a better shot at thunderstorms with next week's system than an ice or snow storm.
Click to expand...
This was before the 12Z runs. Have no clue why he's being like that. The potential is huge. He's going against the NWS too.
 
Faco Thomas said:
I'm very shocked the UKMET showed this sort of solution. I was expecting that the Midlands of SC would get another cold rain event. Assuming the UKMET doesn't completely change within the next 12-24,I probably have to rethink about this being a pure rain event for the Augusta/Aiken/Columbia area.
Click to expand...

Nah, I'm sure the EURO will come in with another cutter and snap the last grasp of hope we had. I honestly couldn't care less what the Icon or Canadian show. It's UKMET, EPS, EURO, GEFS in that order for me. You're right though I agree, I'm very surprised the UKMET trended strong cold there.
 
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