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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Someone in the Carolinas is gonna take a huge L from freezing rain early next week, it seems pretty much inevitable at this point, I just hope it’s not me. Gotta feel somewhat comfortable in the central to NW Piedmont with all that snow cover to the north and the globals already showing temps this cold, suggests sleet fest over ice storm even if the synoptically forced cold advection isn’t super amazing. Same can’t be said for places like Fayetteville, Florence, & Columbia tho.
 
So we can already see that from the 12z runs that the models still have no idea what in the world is going to happen. Taking all the models into account, there is no trend for anything. After warming at 0z, the CMC came in colder at 12z which tells me it’s ensembles will be all over the place. The GFS and GFS v16 is two completely different solutions, which means the GEFS will most likely be all over the place as well. The only model that seems to showing any type of consistency every 6 hours is the ICON...which I have bashed repeatedly. After looking at the teleconnections this morning, the only constants are that both the AO and NAO remain solidly negative.
 
I’m not buying this cutter solution from the gfs or maybe I’m just wish casting that this low pressure would stay in the northern gulf and head east instead of cutting leaving Alabama to the Carolinas out from the looks of it you would think the entire south East would be getting a major winter storm and I know if it can freaking snow in the Gulf of Mexico from what the gfs is showing areas east should finally get there first and last chance of winter weather
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh126-144.gif
 
Chazwin said:
So we can already see that from the 12z runs that the models still have no idea what in the world is going to happen. Taking all the models into account, there is no trend for anything. After warming at 0z, the CMC came in colder at 12z which tells me it’s ensembles will be all over the place. The GFS and GFS v16 is two completely different solutions, which means the GEFS will most likely be all over the place as well. The only model that seems to showing any type of consistency every 6 hours is the ICON...which I have bashed repeatedly. After looking at the teleconnections this morning, the only constants are that both the AO and NAO remain solidly negative.
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If we get a big cad then take the temp fields from the globals with a massive grain of salt, they’ve been horribly underestimating the intensity and extent of shallow cold air in the southern plains due to Rocky Mtn CAD, and I wouldn’t expect anything different here in the Carolinas if cad materializes.
 
Chazwin said:
So we can already see that from the 12z runs that the models still have no idea what in the world is going to happen. Taking all the models into account, there is no trend for anything. After warming at 0z, the CMC came in colder at 12z which tells me it’s ensembles will be all over the place. The GFS and GFS v16 is two completely different solutions, which means the GEFS will most likely be all over the place as well. The only model that seems to showing any type of consistency every 6 hours is the ICON...which I have bashed repeatedly. After looking at the teleconnections this morning, the only constants are that both the AO and NAO remain solidly negative.
Click to expand...
I thought it was vanishing my friend? I read that in pervious post!
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I’m not buying this cutter solution from the gfs or maybe I’m just wish casting that this low pressure would stay in the northern gulf and head east instead of cutting leaving Alabama to the Carolinas out from the looks of it you would think the entire south East would be getting a major winter storm and I know if it can freaking snow in the Gulf of Mexico from what the gfs is showing areas east should finally get there first and last chance of winter weather
View attachment 73490
Click to expand...

It cuts because it's riding the boundary that the upper level subtropical ridge is creating at the surface.
 
The most likely outcome east of mountains for some. Probably onset ice to rain. With ice holding on longer In some areas like eastern NC. That would be my call at this hour today. On a side note I’m pretty dang satisfied this winter I’ve seen 3 snows this winter Gatlinburg Christmas Maggie valley Jan 8th-9th And Maggie valley this past weekend. So I can’t complain If we don’t see another snow this winter. But I always want more lol.


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For those in NE Georgia hoping to avoid ZR, seeing temps in the mid to upper 30s showing up on the globals is definitely not comforting IMO. If that CAD holds, I'm sure those temps are going to be a lot closer, if not all the way to freezing once this gets in the range of the short-range models.
 
Here's the Canadian freezing rain totals. Maybe not so outrageous given the temps. **but we all know this will change. Maybe even to have the CAD signal strengthen as we get closer. So maybe this stuff shifts south (which I wouldn't mind --> give me more sleet).
aaab.JPG
 
chase5ash said:
For those in NE Georgia hoping to avoid ZR, seeing temps in the mid to upper 30s showing up on the globals is definitely not comforting IMO. If that CAD holds, I'm sure those temps are going to be a lot closer, if not all the way to freezing once this gets in the range of the short-range models.
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I truly believe that the front is going to push through ATL cause the SER is going to relax and the CAD in play...we will be sliding my friend.
 
Avalanche said:
Local mets here have backed off of it almost entirely. Said to be a nw piedmont to Virginia problem. Cold rain here in the Triad/Triangle.
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I'm sure they are probably counting on the massive cutter to the Great Lakes that the EURO is showing to verify.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we get a big cad then take the temp fields from the globals with a massive grain of salt, they’ve been horribly underestimating the intensity and extent of shallow cold air in the southern plains due to Rocky Mtn CAD, and I wouldn’t expect anything different here in the Carolinas if cad materializes.
Click to expand...
I couldn’t agree more. The globals have been off by as much as 20 degrees out there which is absolutely fascinating to me because with the technology of more than 20 years into the 21st century, you would never expect a model to be that far off
 
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