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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Bsud said:
What makes you think it's cold rain?

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It could certainly flop back to ice. But with that look on that run I think you’d get cold rain. Maybe northern Pickens Greenville Spartanburg north and east see a little ice. A lot can and will change


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At this point, I think a sig winter wx event is bound to happen, especially for the CAD regions. As has been stated above there is just way to much snowpack to our north for the CAD regions of NC, SC, and GA not to see something. Areas to the west like Middle TN and N AL are more up in the air. I could see them possibly being too warm for the sig snowfalls or ice that some models are spitting out. Only because they are depending on TPV. But W TN. TX, and LA stand a better chance at least at this point. Not really looking forward to ice though. Would love to see this trend towards more snow/sleet but CAD always seems to spell ice for CLT, RAH, and even the Midlands at this juncture. I think the Triad areas may be able to escape an all or mostly ZR event. Time will tell. Definitely am intrigued to say the very least.
 
ryan1234 said:
At this point, I think a sig winter wx event is bound to happen, especially for the CAD regions. As has been stated above there is just way to much snowpack to our north for the CAD regions of NC, SC, and GA not to see something. Areas to the west like Middle TN and N AL are more up in the air. I could see them possibly being too warm for the sig snowfalls or ice that some models are spitting out. Only because they are depending on TPV. But W TN. TX, and LA stand a better chance at least at this point. Not really looking forward to ice though. Would love to see this trend towards more snow/sleet but CAD always seems to spell ice for CLT, RAH, and even the Midlands at this juncture. I think the Triad areas may be able to escape an all or mostly ZR event. Time will tell. Definitely am intrigued to say the very least.
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I think CLT-GSO could get lucky and escape with IP
 
packfan98 said:
hmm...Euro starts to cut and then seems to get shunted due east between 138 and 144. The next frame continued the primary low into Ohio instead of forming a secondary low of the SC coast. Look for that in future runs if the shortwave energy weakens any more.
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If it cuts or nots is a big deal for me. If it cuts, I don't have a lot of faith that whatever cold makes it east can hold on for the WAA created by a storm to our west. Then it's likely to be freezing rain "best" case scenario, likely at onset. Too amped is bad. The SE ridge ain't helping matters.
 
Today is a good example of how much trouble models have with CAD. Most guidance today had the CLT metro getting to the upper 50s today, but I’m stuck at 50 right now after briefly getting to 52. No precip... just a constant, light NE wind. So actual temperatures are off from guidance just 24 hours ago by 6-8 degrees and this is very weak CAD right now
 
Chazwin said:
Today is a good example of how much trouble models have with CAD. Most guidance today had the CLT metro getting to the upper 50s today, but I’m stuck at 50 right now after briefly getting to 52. No precip... just a constant, light NE wind. So actual temperatures are off from guidance just 24 hours ago by 6-8 degrees and this is very weak CAD right now
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Yeah, the temp actually dropped in the last 2 hours. It's supposed to be in the mid 50's tomorrow but I don't see that happening TBH.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Sleet vs ZR is always a difficult forecast because even if you get the profiles and precip rates exactly right, the distribution of cloud condensation nuclei types can still hamper this and give you one or the other even if you leave almost everything between 2 different setups exactly the same.
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The 12/2002 ice storm had ALOT more sleet than forecasted! It was supposed to be all ZR, but thank goodness, there was a lot of sleet! Never saw 1 flake of snow in GSP, unlike up towards Gastonia and up. Was a great storm! Just re emphasizing your point, it’s trick up until go time
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is a “king” View attachment 73542View attachment 73543
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This is why no one can look at any of these runs and say that there’s is any sort of trend one way or another...that was the case with both yesterday’s warm runs and today’s colder runs. Personally I’m trying to look back to 3 days ago and see the location of the TPV on the runs that we’re holding back west longer or even having move west. I’m wanting to say that it’s actually verified to be very far to the east just based on memory though.
 
Stormlover said:
GEFS mon night View attachment 73555
Thur night
View attachment 73557
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I honestly believe there's some potential with the second wave for areas a bit further east than those getting snow from the 1st wave on Monday/Tuesday. It really depends on if the ridge can relax some and make things a bit flatter. It's nice to see the GEFS supports it's own operational model with the 2nd system.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Less impressive vs other models but colder then 00z View attachment 73538View attachment 73539
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The “king” doesn’t like folding in one run it likes to take its time so people don’t look at it too funny.. in reality we all know how the euro has been performing lately and as kylo said earlier it’s nothing like what it used to be in my book
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
The “king” doesn’t like folding in one run it likes to take its time so people don’t look at it too funny.. in reality we all know how the euro has been performing lately and as kylo said earlier it’s nothing like what it used to be in my book
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What I was thinking or more specifically, maybe slowing down (stabilizing) from the more radical changes/flips run-to-run. :)
 
For you UKMET lovers, thought I'd drop this. F5 has a 10km UKMET that goes out to hr 168 (not sure if it is the same model data, just extended, or if it has updated under the hood, so to speak.

H5 evolution (vort panels not loading on F5 for some reason):


Precip:


The ice is something to behold on that one, but no ice accum panels on F5
 
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