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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Nick_boynton_ said:
The “king” doesn’t like folding in one run it likes to take its time so people don’t look at it too funny.. in reality we all know how the euro has been performing lately and as kylo said earlier it’s nothing like what it used to be in my book
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ICON is the new King, anyways. My new ride ‘n die! All hail the King!!!

ICON was a crazy solution, though. Basically one of the deepest CAD depictions I’ve seen. It’s possible, but seems a bit extreme.
 
Tarheel1 said:
The 12/2002 ice storm had ALOT more sleet than forecasted! It was supposed to be all ZR, but thank goodness, there was a lot of sleet! Never saw 1 flake of snow in GSP, unlike up towards Gastonia and up. Was a great storm! Just re emphasizing your point, it’s trick up until go time
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You’re right. I was in Concord at the time and we were only forecasted to get a little sleet mixed in at the onset. Instead we got snow right at the start and then around a 1/2 inch of sleet before it switch out that steady light freezing rain accrued I can’t imagine how the ice accrual would have been if it had all started as all ZR
 
KyloG said:
Here are all the members just as precip starts. You could argue the CAD might be stronger on the ones showing cad but on the blowtorch members that's not cad modeled incorrectly.

View attachment 73568View attachment 73569
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Dang! That's a lot of different looks. So volatile with the smallest feature changing the sensible weather in the CAD regions.
 
packfan98 said:
Dang! That's a lot of different looks. So volatile with the smallest feature changing the sensible weather in the CAD regions.
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Yep agreed, it could go either way but I look at that and think the cold is having a hard time making east...

Maybe the western areas, I77 corridor, gets a crazy harsh ice storm, but for the RDU folks it's going to be tough. We haven't had a significant impacting ice storm in 20 years. They are just so rare and it's rare for a reason.
 
KyloG said:
Here are all the members just as precip starts. You could argue the CAD might be stronger on the ones showing cad but on the blowtorch members that's not cad modeled incorrectly.

View attachment 73568View attachment 73569
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The SER has been the most consistently modeled element in the last 7 days of runs.


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KyloG said:
Here are all the members just as precip starts. You could argue the CAD might be stronger on the ones showing cad but on the blowtorch members that's not cad modeled incorrectly.

View attachment 73568View attachment 73569
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Gonna have to press [x] doubt on those warm members. You're having to bank on a super amped cyclone running straight into a giant cold high to the north w/ a deep snow cover over the lower Lakes & NE US which will stabilize the boundary layer and force the storm track SE & even then those warm members erode the CAD in < 12 hours, which is extremely hard to do even if a giant low like that is realized.

Like I said earlier, good luck w/ that.

As much as I'd like to see that happen I doubt it unless the synoptic pattern dramatically changes
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I'm pulling the Carpet Burn Watch off the Table: Said I would wait till 12z today and decide if it needed to be upgraded to a warning: We are inside the 5 day benchmark with a enough consensus and still plenty of volatility to not be able to exactly nail down specefics.
However This is the 1st time in the almost 2 weeks we've been tracking this TPV out of the Strat event that began a few weeks back, that an actual threat of a winter storm hasn't faded, the rug get yanked out from underneath us as we approached the 120hr mark(5 days). Thanks to the iCON,Ukmet and lesser extent New GFS old GFS and parts of the Eps. Highly likely the CAD region will see Warning Criteria Ice at a minimum in several locations. My hunch is this will be more widespread and intense than what is being shown, talked about nws , tv mets etc.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Gonna have to press [x] doubt on those warm members. You're having to bank on a super amped cyclone running straight into a giant cold high to the north w/ a deep snow cover over the lower Lakes & NE US which will stabilize the boundary layer and force the storm track SE & even then those warm members erode the CAD in < 12 hours, which is extremely hard to do even if a giant low like that is realized.

Like I said earlier, good luck w/ that.

As much as I'd like to see that happen I doubt it unless the synoptic pattern dramatically changes
View attachment 73571

View attachment 73572
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That's a stout ridge to the east though? It really has nowhere to go.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3433600.png
 
KyloG said:
That's a stout ridge to the east though? It really has nowhere to go.

View attachment 73575
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Fair point. I think if the shortwave is a little weaker and more progressive we can get a more favorable Miller B transfer off the SC coast. The GFS has been overamped several times this winter at this lead time. It will be interesting to see what feature wins - Strong HP, SER, TPV confluence, etc... From what I've seen in the runs today, the confluence has been hanging in there a little stronger pushing everything a little further south (including the SER). Tricky part is if it hangs around too long like on some of yesterday's runs, it blocks the High Pressure from getting in a favorable position for filtering in the cold. Pretty cool to track this and watch it unfold.
 
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