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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

ryan1234 said:
Based on one model run? If we manage to end up with all rain and a high of 51 on Monday I will eat crow. This pattern just screams a classic CAD set up. Yes, things can change of course. And things will certainly jump around between now and then, I do expect them to because well... modeling. But I will be listening to the pro's on this board like @Webberweather53 and @Myfrotho704_ before I go off one or two model runs. They know their stuff!
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I’m not saying it can’t change. I’m just saying what I think the outcome will be based on the Track the Gfs and Euro showed. I think eastern nc to about Asheville sees some ice maybe even extreme northern Pickens Greenville Spartanburg county. But to me this looks like cold rain for a lot of upstate sc and NE Georgia. Now could that change absolutely! So stay tuned


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StormStalker said:
We had about 4 inches of sleet here and a couple inches of snow on top of it. It started in the evening and continued well into the next day. There was snow/ice on the ground for at least 4-5 days. It was just pouring sleet. One of my favorite winter storms due to rarity in sleet totals and how long it lasted.
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Thanks. 4'' of sleet is impressive. We got a 1-2'' sleet here, but less snow and more zr than you did.

There is not a lot of info on this storm compared to others. Maybe it's been overshadowed over the years by other storms.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Dang, icon really backed off at H5,
12z
View attachment 7359918zView attachment 73598
If there’s one thing that’s been popping up time to time, it’s a tail of vorticity that gets left behind, still might be ZR but not as impressive of a H5 look
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Past few runs have trended much warmer. The Atlantic ridge is no joke. Falling in line with warmer euro.
 
Webberweather53 said:
To compliment my earlier season-to-date snow/sleet accumulation map for NC, here's a map of the number of winter storms thus far in 2020-21. Storms that produced at least a glaze of freezing rain or a dusting of snow (0.2"+) were included

I see @packfan98 & @NCSNOW are living life dangerously, 5 events near Randleman vs 0 in Asheboro.
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You are spot on this year. This happens alot in our county. Usually more pronounced from seagrove or Farmer up to Asheboro. You gain elevation. The Dec 2009 Storm, I lived out toward Farmer. Had white Rain, went 3 miles up to hwy 64 and 3 inches was on the gorund before they mixed.
 
Webberweather53 said:
To compliment my earlier season-to-date snow/sleet accumulation map for NC, here's a map of the number of winter storms thus far in 2020-21. Storms that produced at least a glaze of freezing rain or a dusting of snow (0.2"+) were included

I see @packfan98 & @NCSNOW are living life dangerously, 5 events near Randleman vs 0 in Asheboro.
View attachment 73583
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Thank you Webber
By recent years standards it has been an epic winter in the NC High Country.

Over 4500’ since November 29 there has been at least partial snow cover for 72 of the last 74 days.

That makes for a great memorable winter.

I wish everyone had snow in all areas and I also wish more people who like snow would head to the mountains to enjoy it .

In areas where I have cross country skied the last 2 weekends I did not see a single person. Just deep virgin untouched snow
 
KyloG said:
Compare the runs today...all warmer with stronger ridge.


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I should correct myself... I’m looking solely at how the models are handling that TPV, because that appears to be the key in this whole set up. The ICON was further SE on every run since 12z yesterday, while the 12z Euro today was SE. Also it should be mentioned that the model runs from 3 days ago that were showing that TPV so far west have missed greatly. It’s much further east which is why so many global model runs have performed so poorly with temperatures out in the Plains
 
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Chris justice even says it’s Track dependent. This is what I’ve been saying today


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I thought we agreed to toss the 18Z runs? Webb said they do not have new data ingested like the 12 and 00Z does
 
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