• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol if it’s right it’s lights out in CAD regions, it’s a outlier in a way tho with how cold the CAD is
Click to expand...

Is it the outlier...?

Euro has been useless at this range all winter...but if there is a 1040 high in this spot with a snow pack to our north with true arctic cold...I'm just saying.

I want this to all fall apart and we get into 60F's and frisbee golf weather but it's hard to ignore what we are seeing. I think it ultimately does fall apart somehow, we are lucky that way.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp-3455200.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-snow_depth-3455200.pngecmwf-ensemble-c00-east-t2m_f-3455200.png
 
KyloG said:
Is it the outlier...?

Euro has been useless at this range all winter...but if there is a 1040 high in this spot with a snow pack to our north with true arctic cold...I'm just saying.

I want this to all fall apart and we get into 60F's and frisbee golf weather but it's hard to ignore what we are seeing. I think it ultimately does fall apart somehow, we are lucky that way.

View attachment 73417View attachment 73416View attachment 73418
Click to expand...
I’d consider a couple inches of sleet a big win in a setup like this and very attainable imo. Been a while since we’ve had a sleet storm from nearly start to finish around here.
 
I could be wrong, but I feel like these models are gonna flip flop all the way until Sat/Sun and then out of nowhere show the artic air again blasting in and we are gonna get hit hard with winter weather early next week. It has to happen eventually, right? ?
 
Just a couple reasons why I think a winter storm is honestly more likely than not, even east of the apps.
1. The models are flipping more than a gymnastics team at a regional tournament. You get completely different looks almost every run now. First the TPV was going to be too far west, then it was too slow moving east, then it was too weak once it started speeding up, then it randomly wants to stop in the Great Lakes and not move for 2 days. they just don't know what to do with it at this point.
2. A 1050 HP looks likely at this point with substantial cold both to our north and northwest.
The Snow pack over the northeast and midatlantic is massive and models are not going to be good at picking up on that even in a normal wedge without this massive blast of arctic air.
3. The globals have tried to flex the SER all winter in the medium range and everytime it starts getting beat down once we get into the 3-4 day range and things come in colder. We have had 2 or 3 events this year where the air mass was exceptionally marginal but still ended with a 32/33 degree rain instead of the 36-39 degree rain like they showed. Including last weekend's events that had way more cold air the closer we got to the event. That's the theme of this winter.
4. Globals do not handle normal CAD well at all. They underestimate the level of cold air at the surface, the try to erode it too fast, they try to drive LP directly into it. Now a 1040 HP sitting in the Northeast with a snow pack just screams colder than modeled.
5. Finally these models, including the Euro, are already underestimating just how cold the air mass truly is by being off as much as 10-20 degrees at initialization back over the midwest and central US.

Point of this post is to show you that right now we have the coldest air in the North America sitting just to our north, with a snow pack, models flip flopping every run, and a consistent trend of getting colder the closer we get to events. That tells me that a winter storm both in the western southeast and in the CAD areas is a lot more likely than what the models are showing on their individual runs.
 
gawxnative said:
It is almost going to be "nowcasting" in North 1/3 of GA, with CAD vs Overrunning.. Shift in track of surface low 50-75 miles will make all the difference
Click to expand...

Would like to believe our model technology is a little better than nowcasting for an event like this, but do believe we are talking 48-72hrs out before having some medium confidence in the forecast.
 
iGRXY said:
Just a couple reasons why I think a winter storm is honestly more likely than not, even east of the apps.
1. The models are flipping more than a gymnastics team at a regional tournament. You get completely different looks almost every run now. First the TPV was going to be too far west, then it was too slow moving east, then it was too weak once it started speeding up, then it randomly wants to stop in the Great Lakes and not move for 2 days. they just don't know what to do with it at this point.
2. A 1050 HP looks likely at this point with substantial cold both to our north and northwest.
The Snow pack over the northeast and midatlantic is massive and models are not going to be good at picking up on that even in a normal wedge without this massive blast of arctic air.
3. The globals have tried to flex the SER all winter in the medium range and everytime it starts getting beat down once we get into the 3-4 day range and things come in colder. We have had 2 or 3 events this year where the air mass was exceptionally marginal but still ended with a 32/33 degree rain instead of the 36-39 degree rain like they showed. Including last weekend's events that had way more cold air the closer we got to the event. That's the theme of this winter.
4. Globals do not handle normal CAD well at all. They underestimate the level of cold air at the surface, the try to erode it too fast, they try to drive LP directly into it. Now a 1040 HP sitting in the Northeast with a snow pack just screams colder than modeled.
5. Finally these models, including the Euro, are already underestimating just how cold the air mass truly is by being off as much as 10-20 degrees at initialization back over the midwest and central US.

Point of this post is to show you that right now we have the coldest air in the North America sitting just to our north, with a snow pack, models flip flopping every run, and a consistent trend of getting colder the closer we get to events. That tells me that a winter storm both in the western southeast and in the CAD areas is a lot more likely than what the models are showing on their individual runs.
Click to expand...
Is it possible there's a winter storm in the western southeast and east of the apps and someone in the middle like Atlanta gets left out?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top