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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

WeatherBuddy21 said:
CFS nailed our last storm farther out than any other model.
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I'm no expert in how the model is configured, but it seems to be more geared towards climatology input values. For this upcoming even, it may have a better or at least equal handle on the event. My thought is the other models are faulting on too much details in a complex setup. This is where climatology with "real" people forecasting (like RAH, Eric, DeltaDog) can sort things the best.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Is it possible there's a winter storm in the western southeast and east of the apps and someone in the middle like Atlanta gets left out?
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Sure. That’s been the look we’ve been getting. PV stays to the west. CAD helps to filter in shallow cold to the northeast. This look has been probably the most consistent thing we’ve seen the last week when we have seen a strong PV to our west. It’s the likeliest outcome based on modeling. Some are certainly arguing that it’s just not possible. I’m not smart enough to know if that is the case.

The caveat here is there are two variables at play that keep us from putting this threat to bed for ATL:

1) The PV is awfully close and could decide to drift further east is as some have argued the SER is being overdone in models.

2) The CAD is underdone and could press further southwest than modeled.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
Perhaps what's been going on this year is that normal Nina climo gets factored in in the medium term, but then it ends up correcting again once it's known that this won't be the case?
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I’ve wondered the same thing. Obviously climo is one very important piece of data that goes into these models. As we all know, this has been very far from the normal Niña
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve wondered the same thing. Obviously climo is one very important piece of data that goes into these models. As we all know, this has been very far from the normal Niña
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I think the app runners are the one normal Nina feature we've been getting. Otherwise everything else is upside down. The above normal precipitation with below normal temps are more Nino like.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Could be wrong but seems like this separation between the tpv and the sw will allow the SER to pump and that sw will amp be prone to cut
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Yep, a more consolidated TPV peice means it can survive the shredder more as it’s exits
 
ICON really is that much different from the 6z honestly. It's not as cold (talking a couple of degrees) to our northwest as the previous run. But temps are actually the same in NC/SC at 65.
 
ICON looks like the 06z Euro, overall the TPV is weaker/more NW this run vs the last 2 suites on the icon 14029E49-FE50-4751-82B1-569B48F33C83.png27ACB6D4-7DF1-44AD-8C67-2D0218066571.png
 
iGRXY said:
Temps over the midwest and Ohio valley are warmer. Talking single digits versus below zero but NC and SC are actually a little colder with more CAD.
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Still, with a TPV more NW the CAD wont be as impressive when the vortex moves East, that’s being shown now as it’s warmer then 06z/00z so far. Still will prob be some ZR tho
 
smast16 said:
People keep talking about the how the -NAO is going to squash the SER as we get into the short range, but I guess people have been missing that the -NAO is vanishing.
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It’s like how people always talk about how a surface low couldn’t possibly crash into the wedge or some high pressure system, or whatever, which may be true, but then the reality is that the HP/wedge comes in weaker than modeled and the surface low has no problem overcoming it and raining hard all.
 
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