12z was rain in Memphis Thursday morning while most other modeling has been consistently showing ice. The Euro has been doing really badly at the surface with this Arctic airmass. It was showing Union City at 37 at 7pm Tuesday evening and it verified at 29. Missing by 8 degrees at 6 hours is a huge miss. In couple of days leading up to this it's moved the ice from southern Ohio/Indiana to the Tennessee Kentucky border. I don't know why, but it's been swinging wildly at short leads this year and even more wildly at long leads. At one point during the Christmas snow event lead up it had about a 5 run stretch from just a few days out where it showed basically every kind of weather possible in December imby. I noted at the time that at least one run had to be right because it was changing so much that it showed everything that could happen. Ironically it's closest run before inside 24 hours to what actually happened was when it showed it at D9. The GFSV16 also showed it at day 9 but was pretty rock solid with it all the way home.
This was today's 12z run that showed rain in Memphis and Northern Mississippi, now it's showing heavy freezing rain about 80 miles south of where it had been showing it. The snow you're referring to was around 5 days after this event.
