John1122
Member
That's a huge fold to all other modeling, which it has been having to do frequently this year in Tennessee. At 12z it was all liquid in Memphis.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
That's a huge fold to all other modeling, which it has been having to do frequently this year in Tennessee. At 12z it was all liquid in Memphis.
I think what sucks is we are gonna waste a great airmass if your GA east south and NE. Just sucks. But her are you gonna do. This outcome will change for sure, but we are getting a little more run to run trends. Bad news is that they are good ones for some, jackpots for others.
That's wx! It has no feelings, Chris. It just is what it is. That's why I don't get mad. It is already predetermined what will happen. But we (models) are not smart enough to know. And it is that not knowing that makes model watching so much fun.
I’d rather have these changes right now in the medium range ... our storms come back short range ... I want NAM range anything is possible outside of there
When in doubt look at the CPC
Snowman63
Member
No, the previous two Euro runs were snow. This run is mostly ice.
John1122
Member
12z was rain in Memphis Thursday morning while most other modeling has been consistently showing ice. The Euro has been doing really badly at the surface with this Arctic airmass. It was showing Union City at 37 at 7pm Tuesday evening and it verified at 29. Missing by 8 degrees at 6 hours is a huge miss. In couple of days leading up to this it's moved the ice from southern Ohio/Indiana to the Tennessee Kentucky border. I don't know why, but it's been swinging wildly at short leads this year and even more wildly at long leads. At one point during the Christmas snow event lead up it had about a 5 run stretch from just a few days out where it showed basically every kind of weather possible in December imby. I noted at the time that at least one run had to be right because it was changing so much that it showed everything that could happen. Ironically it's closest run before inside 24 hours to what actually happened was when it showed it at D9. The GFSV16 also showed it at day 9 but was pretty rock solid with it all the way home.
This was today's 12z run that showed rain in Memphis and Northern Mississippi, now it's showing heavy freezing rain about 80 miles south of where it had been showing it. The snow you're referring to was around 5 days after this event.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 477
- Reaction score
- 1,323
Again check the MJO. It ain’t happening and the MJO is even worse again this morning
It
It
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO is only part of the equation. There's a lot of pure randomness that can dictate whether the vortex shifts 200+ miles in either direction that aren't significantly influenced by tropical forcing.
Downeastnc
Member
ICON coming in colder and stronger with the cold by a good bit especially in SC/ southern NC
00Z hr 126
06Z hr 120
00Z hr 126
06Z hr 120
I hate to get all weenie on you guys (well not really), but the 6Z ICON is significantly colder than the 0Z thanks to the 6Z's center of the big sfc high (1049 mb) being a whopping 500 miles SSW of its 0Z position ( far NE NB vs N MN). The jumpiness from run to run of most models is insane and off the charts! This 500 mile change in the sfc high center is only out 120 hours!
I realize that the ICON isn't the most stable model from run to run and I'd highly doubt the GFS would have a change that drastic, but come on!
I realize that the ICON isn't the most stable model from run to run and I'd highly doubt the GFS would have a change that drastic, but come on!
Last edited:
Downeastnc
Member
I dunno seems the ICON is the least variable over the last day or so (which is saying something ) though it could just be me mixing it up.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The models still don't know what they're doing w/ this TPV lobe, at least enough to where we should have any sort of confidence next week, and the globals (esp the ECMWF) have been nothing short of horrific w/ the southern extent of this arctic air mass in the southern plains and MS valley.
Winter started off with TX and OK getting repeated winter storms and now will finish that way. 18 more days until March...can’t come soon enough.
Hopefully Brent gets hit next week with this. ?
Hopefully Brent gets hit next week with this. ?
?
iGRXY
Member
A lot of doom and gloom just for the GFS to bring the storm back and the Icon to get colder. None of these models are worth anything beyond 72 hours. Not the ensembles, not the OP, none of them. They change on a dime, they look nothing like they did the previous run, they spit out a whole knew solution or evolution to get to a solution.
