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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Zander98al said:
I'm concerned about this axis of heavy freezing rain shifting into downtown birmingham and surrounding areas. This would be absolutely crippling for the downtown and business. Still remember snowmageddon from a inch of ice how bad things were downtown. Although that was mainly snow and was more so unexpected. As I've learned always to expect something unexpected lol. It ALWAYS seems to happen. Wether it's a good unexpected or bad idunno?
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But will it be cold enough for that type of crippling event. If its around 31 or 32 i would imagine it wouldnt be as bad ?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
But will it be cold enough for that type of crippling event. If its around 31 or 32 i would imagine it wouldnt be as bad ?
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Don't really know, temp forecasts have been kinda wonky in the past 48 hours so it's more a watch and see now.
 
Zander98al said:
I'm concerned about this axis of heavy freezing rain shifting into downtown birmingham and surrounding areas. This would be absolutely crippling for the downtown and business. Still remember snowmageddon from a inch of ice how bad things were downtown. Although that was mainly snow and was more so unexpected. As I've learned always to expect something unexpected lol. It ALWAYS seems to happen. Wether it's a good unexpected or bad idunno?
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At least flash freezing isn't likely as with that event. I think temperatures were around 20 when the snow started falling. Probably more warning tomorrow if it looks like Birmingham will have freezing rain.
 
David in SW Blount said:
At least flash freezing isn't likely as with that event. I think temperatures were around 20 when the snow started falling. Probably more warning tomorrow if it looks like Birmingham will have freezing rain.
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Definitely more warning and yes temperatures were in the low 20s from what I can remember when it started falling then.
 
With heavy snow moving in from the west, white-out to near white-
out conditions are being reported with the heavier snow bands.
These conditions are making travel nearly impossible west of I-35
at the moment. The same conditions are expected to move closer to
the I-35 corridor in the coming hours. In addition, heavy snow
will lead to quick accumulations of around 1" per hour with the
heavier bands.

Again, the white-out to near white-out conditions will make any
travel very difficult, if not impossible. Snow drifts are likely
to develop through the afternoon/evening, some of which will need
to be measured with a yard stick.
 
David in SW Blount said:
At least flash freezing isn't likely as with that event. I think temperatures were around 20 when the snow started falling. Probably more warning tomorrow if it looks like Birmingham will have freezing rain.
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Flash freezing with be an issue tomorrow night once the cold finally pushes in . I bet the nws goes with a WWA for Jefferson for that reason alone . They can always upgrade if need be but right now it looks 2-3 degrees too warm


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The temperature has been holding right around 32 degrees all day here in Arab al. I still have ice in the trees from Friday night and sat morning.


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Brent said:
Its so close ahhhView attachment 74958
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This 10 day period is in my eyes sort of like DFW's version of early to mid Feb of 1899 for the SE US. Also, it is not too unlike the 2nd week of Jan of 1982 in Atlanta (Snowjam 1982) and much of the SE US. Enjoy every minute of it as this will always be remembered as an incredible period. I still vividly remember the Atl Snowjam 1982 like it was yesterday!

Thanks should be given for the sub -5 AO. I wonder where the AO was in Feb of 1899.
 
Forecasted high was 31 but haven’t gone above 25.5 yet. Although not in the bullseye I think I’m in a good area to get at least 3 inches with some sleet. Obviously if the warm layer comes a little further northwest then totals go down. Temps have been so much colder then forecasted this whole week and that makes me tend to believe the snow totals end up on the higher side For this area. If the damn warm layer wasn’t above us a foot would be common across a lot of middle Tennessee I would think.
 
Brent said:
With heavy snow moving in from the west, white-out to near white-
out conditions are being reported with the heavier snow bands.
These conditions are making travel nearly impossible west of I-35
at the moment. The same conditions are expected to move closer to
the I-35 corridor in the coming hours. In addition, heavy snow
will lead to quick accumulations of around 1" per hour with the
heavier bands.

Again, the white-out to near white-out conditions will make any
travel very difficult, if not impossible. Snow drifts are likely
to develop through the afternoon/evening, some of which will need
to be measured with a yard stick.
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Brent, I hope you have at the least popped the top on one can! Lol. Make sure to give us all a play by play once this starts for you if it hasn't already. Load us up with photos.
 
olhausen said:
Forecasted high was 31 but haven’t gone above 25.5 yet. Although not in the bullseye I think I’m in a good area to get at least 3 inches with some sleet. Obviously if the warm layer comes a little further northwest then totals go down. Temps have been so much colder then forecasted this whole week and that makes me tend to believe the snow totals end up on the higher side For this area. If the damn warm layer wasn’t above us a foot would be common across a lot of middle Tennessee I would think.
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Yea we was supposed to hit like 37 here. Got to 31 here.
 
Well the cold push into AL has halted....wherever you are now is probably where you will be for the majority of this event. Maybe a degree or 2 warmer based on reasons previously given. So close!!
 
I was talking to one of my cousin’s back in Tuscaloosa and he believes the temperature warmed quite a bit it was forecasted to go up to 39 but warmed 2 to 3 degrees warmer and think the area is going to bust big time with just a cold chilly rain
 
olhausen said:
Forecasted high was 31 but haven’t gone above 25.5 yet. Although not in the bullseye I think I’m in a good area to get at least 3 inches with some sleet. Obviously if the warm layer comes a little further northwest then totals go down. Temps have been so much colder then forecasted this whole week and that makes me tend to believe the snow totals end up on the higher side For this area. If the damn warm layer wasn’t above us a foot would be common across a lot of middle Tennessee I would think.
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Going to be interesting to see what the schools do. I think virtual will be difficult on Tuesday (tomorrow’s a holiday).
 
NWMSGuy said:
Brent, I hope you have at the least popped the top on one can! Lol. Make sure to give us all a play by play once this starts for you if it hasn't already. Load us up with photos.
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It is kind of surreal after 6 years two chases this winter several chases trips the years before being at home watching this for once lol especially when I'm moving to Oklahoma in a little over a month this week is like the finale of my time here
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I was talking to one of my cousin’s back in Tuscaloosa and he believes the temperature warmed quite a bit it was forecasted to go up to 39 but warmed 2 to 3 degrees warmer and think the area is going to bust big time with just a cold chilly rain
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3 degrees above the NWS forecast here too, looks like a cold rain/nonevent here
 
Brent said:
It is kind of surreal after 6 years two chases this winter several chases trips the years before being at home watching this for once lol especially when I'm moving to Oklahoma in a little over a month this week is like the finale of my time here
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Going out with a bang !
 
Brent said:
It is kind of surreal after 6 years two chases this winter several chases trips the years before being at home watching this for once lol especially when I'm moving to Oklahoma in a little over a month this week is like the finale of my time here
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That's awesome! I imagine in Oklahoma you will get a taste of everything. Back in '06 I had the opportunity to tour NSSL & SPC before SPC transitioned to their new location. Met some great people, and had a wonderful time at the annual Severe Weather symposium that particular year. My dad was clueless to the discussions of meteorology lol but I am grateful to him tagging along and being appreciative of my interest in weather. First time to OK as well.
 
Kbmx making no changes to the watches or warnings . Said areas around 65 should have trouble reaching the freezing mark during the event and they will leave the watches up and watch further model runs to see if that holds


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This is just going to be a sleet storm for me. No other way around it. Kind of frustrating with temps as cold as they are.
 

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Just saw a posting, that the Agency that oversees Power in Texac (ERCOT) is asking customers to "greatly conserve" usage until Wednesday, due more to issues with production, rather than distribution (lines down) . Seems problems with covered Solar panels and frozen turbines.
 
I’m no met, but it seems like the only way for Birmingham to get some meaningful wintry precipitation is either for a temperature forecast bust (probably not happening) or dynamic cooling via heavy rain rates. Am I wrong here?
 
blitzgunner said:
I’m no met, but it seems like the only way for Birmingham to get some meaningful wintry precipitation is either for a temperature forecast bust (probably not happening) or dynamic cooling via heavy rain rates. Am I wrong here?
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Depends on the track of the low. Further east allows colder air. Futher west over Alabama as the nam shows and we get a cold rain and get to look at pretty pictures from areas west of us.
 
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