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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

I just see Jefferson County getting shafted with this one. IMO I feel like Tuscaloosa is by far the best place to be for those of us in the central part of the state for a boom over bust standpoint. Those of us in the beam metro pretty much better hope the majority of the models are off by a degree or two in order for us to get anything worthy. Either way, I feel like roads are going to be awful tomorrow night and until we can get above freezing tuesday with how fast and hard the temps are going to drop behind the front.

Models have a hard time with he shallow cold air, so I am still definitely interested, but once temps start trending warmer with under 24 hours till go time, they typically don't start coming back in our favor down here. I am not trying to be pessimistic, but that's just typically how it goes. Maybe models will be off with the temps, but I am super anxious to see how Tuscaloosa does with this storm and our Northern Alabama posters.
 
MRX going with a flizzard for western half of it's area Monday night, including Chattanooga and Cleveland. I would expect we'll be under a SWS to account for black ice due to crashing temps after all the rain, and the minor snowfall. Thankful we'll be just warm enough to avoid the frz rain though, don't want any of that

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Parker said:
I just see Jefferson County getting shafted with this one. IMO I feel like Tuscaloosa is by far the best place to be for those of us in the central part of the state for a boom over bust standpoint. Those of us in the beam metro pretty much better hope the majority of the models are off by a degree or two in order for us to get anything worthy. Either way, I feel like roads are going to be awful tomorrow night and until we can get above freezing tuesday with how fast and hard the temps are going to drop behind the front.

Models have a hard time with he shallow cold air, so I am still definitely interested, but once temps start trending warmer with under 24 hours till go time, they typically don't start coming back in our favor down here. I am not trying to be pessimistic, but that's just typically how it goes. Maybe models will be off with the temps, but I am super anxious to see how Tuscaloosa does with this storm and our Northern Alabama posters.
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Yeah temps aren’t in our favor for this one in Bham metro. Only hope is heavy precipitation causing dynamic cooling.
 
Just dropped my youngest off at a friend's house for a couple of hours and the temp dropped 2 degrees while I was gone. I'm about a mile or so off of 231 and I was shocked at the amount of ice in the trees. The freezing fog has definitely rolled in. Currently sitting at 31
 
Arcc said:
Heavy precipitation will most likely hurt even more if you want ice in BHM.
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Yep, temps above surface are gonna be rather warm. Dont want to mix that down if you want to see ice.
 
NWS Birmingham has expanded the ice accumulations further east:

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My temperature has been hovering between 32 and 35 so far today. I got a little rain earlier, but it's not yet cold enough to accumulate on surfaces.
 
Arcc said:
Heavy precipitation will most likely hurt even more if you want ice in BHM.
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Exactly what I said yesterday I think...heavy precip going to make it hard to get accretion as well as bring down warm temps aloft. This may be something the whole state has to worry about except the NW corner. JMO
 
SWVAwxfan said:
James Spann doubles down and says no winter weather for Birmingham. Only issues will be black ice.
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I tend to agree with him with the way things look right now. It can obviously still change, but it is starting to look like that.

18z HRRR is running now. Lets see what it does.
 
HRRR not great. One hour of frozen Precipitation for metro and then back to rain. Temps warm up as heavier stuff moves through.



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DadOfJax said:
Exactly what I said yesterday I think...heavy precip going to make it hard to get accretion as well as bring down warm temps aloft. This may be something the whole state has to worry about except the NW corner. JMO
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I think that heavy precip will be a problem with those whose temps are right close to freezing(31-32), latent heat release will also hurt. For those in the 20’s are just gonna have big problems with ice.
 
The nws in bhm didn’t expand the ice . But they did just put out a tweet with the ice graphic from early this am which is weird
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