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Pattern June 2022

Chazwin said:
that’s what sticks out about this set up. Typically when we see triple digit temperatures in the Carolinas, the humidity tends to be held in check a bit or at least where heat indicies are not out of control… that doesn’t appear to be the case this week
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Dews may mix out into the 60s and even upper 50s. We'll see.
 
DFW has broken the record high miminum again today, with a low of only 80°F (previous record was 79°F).

Record high today is also 103°F, which should be tied or broken again.
 
If DFW makes it to at least 105°F today, it would be the earliest Dallas has seen a temp this warm so early in the season in 95 years, only beat by 5/27/1927 with a high of 107°F. It would also be the earliest Dallas has ever seen a daily average this warm on record (92°F
 
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Pretty good consensus on RDU and CLT making a real run at 100+ on Tuesday but we are going to see how hard it is to make 100 around here. Debris clouds, extensive CU field, convection, ofbs could easily cut high short in the 96-99 range
 
A high of 102 is forecasted here for me in Linden, NC on Tuesday.
Fayetteville just 15 miles south of me is forecasted for a high of 103 on Tuesday.
Now to see where the dew points end up.
 
Forecast for Cayce SC (right outside of downtown Columbia) next week. Ouch.
 

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SD said:
Pretty good consensus on RDU and CLT making a real run at 100+ on Tuesday but we are going to see how hard it is to make 100 around here. Debris clouds, extensive CU field, convection, ofbs could easily cut high short in the 96-99 range
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Yeah, ---- all this --------!2963494B-ABA4-4A77-8F5F-26DB54842385.png
 
The 500mb ridge placement is horrible for parts of the Carolinas. It centers itself just to the west of the Apps and creates further compression of the subsiding air because of the mountains. Exactly how one would get a prolific summer heat wave for those areas. The 12z NAM does shift the center of the upper level ridge towards the east and puts the core of the heat more towards GA on Wednesday(it might be overmodeling the temps though)....otherwise it's really a lot of pain for the entire SE this week.
 
Storms north of me but so far nothing within 30 miles of me. Crops looking bleak and PGV has slipped down to a 6.25 inch deficit and counting
 
OK, now NWS shows a high of 106 for my area Tuesday. I can't remember the last time I saw these kind of temps in Central NC.
I think the record for Fayetteville (just south of me) is 110, which is the record for the state I believe set back in 1983.
 
ragtop50 said:
OK, now NWS shows a high of 106 for my area Tuesday. I can't remember the last time I saw these kind of temps in Central NC.
I think the record for Fayetteville (just south of me) is 110, which is the record for the state I believe set back in 1983.
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I’m gonna guess that it was August 2007. The three hottest days I’ve ever experienced occurred during that heat wave… 105, 107. and 106 on successive days. That heat wave also had dewpoints well into the 60s during the hottest part of the day
 
Chazwin said:
I’m gonna guess that it was August 2007. The three hottest days I’ve ever experienced occurred during that heat wave… 105, 107. and 106 on successive days. That heat wave also had dewpoints well into the 60s during the hottest part of the day
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It was on August 21 1983 that Fayetteville hit 110.


Edit: Also, Asheville NC hit 100 with that heatwave
 
JHS said:
It was on August 21 1983 that Fayetteville hit 110.


Edit: Also, Asheville NC hit 100 with that heatwave
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Yeah i couldn’t remember if it was ‘83 or ‘84 on that one. I just have better memory of the 2007. I would have to check, but if I’m not mistaken Albemarle recorded a 110 degree high in August 2007
 
Garden is throwing the cucumbers,squash,zuchinni out in droves. Tomatoes are green. Humidity is a blessing with the heat coming, although its not good for the body. Garden will be wrapped up by June 30,save tomatoes,beans and peppers. Corn is always at risk of svre gullywasher laying it down these next 4 weeks. Field corn no problem.
 
DFW only made it to 102*F today, one degree shy of the record.

Despite no cirrus unlike yesterday, winds weren't as veered (mostly out of the South), which led to slightly poorer mixing.
 
0.36" for June so far. Ruh Roh shaggy....

Drove to my sisters outside Reidsville. Corn not looking good.

1655124271938.png

Here's the zoomed in view. Rolled up tight like the leaves on a Cigar.

1655124373081.png

Most of the corn that is not irrigated looks like this. If we don't get some rain this week, we might get a flash drought mention.
 
Those of use east of the apps/ especially west of 77 likely will see transient heat before we level back out to normal summer time temps wit elevated rain chances for everyone east of the apps. The Coastal plain in NC/SC likely will get those upper 90's and isolated 100 readings at the heat really settles along the flat land, but I still think it will be transient. The -NAO is likely going to help "protect" us from the surging heat that is out west and at least keep scattered storms across much of the area. Everyone west of the Apps? good luck the rest of summer as it looks right now.
 
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