Brick Tamland
Member
Had some rain here at the house around 9:00. Sun is trying to come back out now. Wonder if that will be enough to keep us from reaching 100 today.
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Pattern June 2022
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
smast16
Member
But, But....Wow fellas, tonight's GFS run says next week's heat tells this weeks heat to hold his beer... ?
This weather STINKS!
they said the GFS was wrong and it'll moderate.
smast16
Member
Got .12" last night and another .02 this morning. While not big rains, it's enough to wet the tongue.
Plus it's 10am and i'm still sitting under a decent cloud deck. That's winning.
Plus it's 10am and i'm still sitting under a decent cloud deck. That's winning.
This doesn't look like Excessive Heat Warning verification criteria to me;
Brick Tamland
Member
Man, if the forecast for an excessive heat warning here in the summer busts because of rain, then any forecast can be a bust here.
Yeah seems like theres going to be enough convective debris/stratoform remnants to limit the heat potential today had.
While next week looks pretty monstrous it is practical to apply the same skepticism to those temperatures as a board-wide snow @156 or sub-zero lows in january
While next week looks pretty monstrous it is practical to apply the same skepticism to those temperatures as a board-wide snow @156 or sub-zero lows in january
Will probably curb the MCS threat later too.
But ultimately it’s an extreme solution and one should view it in the same way you’d view a 12-24” snowstorm showing up on the models at D7. It could happen, but chances are it’ll be more moderated than that.
StormDrain
Member
That's highly unlikely to materialize—ECMWF has been going nuts the past two runs showing 850 mb temps above 80°F.
Stormsfury
Member
Just gonna say, EURO is seriously overdoing it.
These would be challenging all time state records with numbers like this.
South Carolina all time high is 113 set June 30th, 2012 at Columbia USC Station and one other locale.
These would be challenging all time state records with numbers like this.
South Carolina all time high is 113 set June 30th, 2012 at Columbia USC Station and one other locale.
whatalife
Moderator
This will work.
It’s happening 
Brick Tamland
Member
Pretty bad when a forecast for excessive heat here in the summer busts because of rain the day of the forecast. Heat here in the summer should be the easiest thing to get right less than 24 hours out.
weather bubba
Member
I think 100 degrees in the RDU area is in doubt today due to the convective debris that has hung around for most of the morning. The NWS is still sticking with the excessive heat warnings/advisories for now but per their latest discussion they may be discontinued later today. I'm still hoping for some thunderstorm activity this afternoon because my area could certainly use the rain.
Euro Ensemble high temps for the next 10 days. Ouch
Atlanta
Birmingham
Atlanta
Birmingham
Stormsfury
Member
Mesoscale convective systems in the summer are not readily or easily picked up (due to timing issue, subtleties that are very hard to predict or pinpoint, etc.).
The HRRR still isn't even picking up on the convective system in South Carolina now and still continues to show nothing although the radar is lit up like a Christmas tree currently... A little chaos theory ongoing. One thing goes wrong, it messes up the whole recipe
Shaggy
Member
Had several trees down in the neighborhood I'm staying at near Boone. Narrow roads and branches blocking only way in and out sucks.
This is true. That being said, I was forecasted a high today of 101 with heat index up to 112. As of right now it’s still just 81 at 12:50pm. With the clouds around, 90 might be pushing, yet both TWC and GSP still has not updated the forecast and is still showing 101. I’ve definitely seen times during the winter when a wedge held in longer than forecast and a forecast of 62 turned into 48, but o don’t think I’ve ever seen a heat forecast be anywhere close to as far off as today appears to be.
Indeed. The whole forecast today hinged on the MCS arriving after 18z which would have allowed us to warm to near 100 today. The mcs that models did a poor job in forecasting yesterday over Indiana really screwed up the entire days forecast from temps to precipitation chances. Riding the theta E gradient on the eastern side of a heat ridge is going to lead to massive forcast errors vs being firmly under a vertically stacked death ridge