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Pattern July '22

I'm more offended by heat fizzers (i.e. that fail to come into fruition), but I fuсking hate all forecast downgrades with a passion, be they be cold, heat, or precip. Where models fool you into thinking there'll be an interesting weather event but fail to materialize. Wazzup fizzer derping fizzler wazzup fizzer derping wazzzzuuuuuuup?

11.52" of precip at my PWS thus far here. Looking slightly above average and largely dry the next few days here—maybe a few isolated T-storms initiated by sea breeze fronts...gotta enjoy summer while it lasts:

Screen Shot 2022-07-23 at 6.22.38 PM.pngScreen Shot 2022-07-23 at 6.22.45 PM.png
 
Large hail and very large hail, sound fun!94376821-29CA-4141-9F9E-502D82C504A5.png
 
Yeah we do that. In all seriousness the short range guidance has absolutly sucked recently and just can’t see the CAP breaking these past few days with and explosion of outflows that collide .. would expect more of the same over the next couple days. NAM 18z finally sees todays stuff (better late than never I guess) and is also more active tomorrow and very active on Tuesday .. fun .. we’re at over an inch now here in the rain capital of apex ;) 1610EE40-2717-4EF5-B837-DFE2B6297269.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah we do that. In all seriousness the short range guidance has absolutly sucked recently and just can’t see the CAP breaking these past few days with and explosion of outflows that collide .. would expect more of the same over the next couple days. NAM 18z finally sees todays stuff (better late than never I guess) and is also more active tomorrow and very active on Tuesday .. fun .. we’re at over an inch now here in the rain capital of apex ;) View attachment 120125
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Wonder why they form and move over the exact same places every day?
 
Rain Cold said:
Wonder why they form and move over the exact same places every day?
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Wonder why nasty cities that don’t need rain always get rain? It’s detrimental to the literal entire planet for a city to get rain. I can almost guarantee if you had a way to measure it , there would be a direct correlation to rain totals over city areas and cancer cases in that cities watershed . Nasty cancerous runoffs.
 
Really cool features on the radar from storms popping up in NC. Check out the rings:

SeriousTartHarvestmen-size_restricted.gif
 
If I'm not mistaken, 2022 has featured the warmest May-June-July (to date) on record for Dallas, only tied with 1998. The average temp is 85.2°F.

While the Summers of 1980 and 2011 are frequently compared to this season (in which May was normal to below normal), it really has rhymed more so with 1998 and 2018, which both featured torchy months of May.
 
Snippet for the long term from RAH Disco.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty
regarding how far south the front will make it and when it will
start lifting back north, with the GFS bringing it farther south
than the ECMWF. Excessive rainfall could be a concern if the
boundary stays stalled near our area for too long.
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Like music to my ears. Here's to hoping the front doesn't pass!
 
cyclogent said:
Funky precip distribution the next 7 days...all or nothing depending on proximity to the front.
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it may look a little 'off' because of a bit of a rainshadow going on over the apps. usually our wet patterns in the summer are because of moisture streaming in from the atlantic/gulf with storm motions moving due north or nnw. our soupy air here is coming from new madrid.
 
cyclogent said:
Funky precip distribution the next 7 days...all or nothing depending on proximity to the front.

View attachment 120144
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Rah Disco talks about that.

An elongated area of high pressure aloft will extend across the
Southern US on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a closed mid/upper
low will be slowly moving east over southern Ontario. Central NC
will be located in between these two features, opening the door for
disturbances aloft to move across our region. At the surface, a
trough will remain anchored over the Piedmont, with a Bermuda High
well offshore.
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You can see it here on the MSLP anomaly maps as well.
1658756744289.png
 
smast16 said:
Snippet for the long term from RAH Disco.

Like music to my ears. Here's to hoping the front doesn't pass!
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I'll be honest my concern is we are too far south versus a front passing through at least this work week. We are really depending on old ofbs and any subtle forcing embedded in the w to wnw flow aloft. After today this turns into a great pattern for local areas to get a big rain day but it's hard to find a catalyst for huge areas to get big totals through at least Thursday. Things may try to get a little more interesting Friday night into the weekend and the first half of next week as the heat ridge tries to bulge out west again helping to beat back the subtropical ridge over the SE allowing the next front to get much closer
 
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If you want to be ultra optimistic about the pattern any of these convective clusters that are likely to slide by to the north could leave an old ofb and differential heating boundary in its wake which would likely be situated west to east across nc any day this week leading to far better coverage that modeled. On the pessimistic side we could easily get trapped in debris clouds/subsidence any day this week and see nearly 0 coverage with better storms to our north closer to better forcing and to our south where better instability would reside. Again I wouldn't pin my hopes on high rain chances other than today and late week, the middle is a mess
 
smast16 said:
Well, i guess it's better than nothing. 0.16". was really hoping for more.

View attachment 120149
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Round 2 dropped another .2"

1658781581715.png

Had a lightning bolt fire off really close. As soon as i was able to register what was happening, it was thundering. Ear splitting thunder, and i could feel it. Like the bolt had 3 pulses, and i felt the 3 pulses, also heard the street light clicking 3 times with the pulses.
 
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