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Pattern July '22

Is it just me or have the storms this week just formed the shape of 540 and refused to come south untill after Raleigh?

Looks like a legit forcefield at times.
That’s been the jackpot zone past days but I think with the front moving south means a lot more people southward get involved here. See latest NAM for a general idea
 
Copped an absolute flogging yesterday, where I've had sustained 3-4"/hr rainfall rates from a slow-moving cluster of thunderstorms, of which, the ultimate precip total was 3.29" (83.6 mm) at my PWS yesterday.

Comfortably warm evening here, 88°F with a 78°F dew point @ my PWS as of 6 PM.
 
some flash flooding issues here in Zebulon / lizard lick . Even little river is flooding around its banks a bit because of runoff
 
Solid >2.2” PWAT environment out ahead of this, when it comes down it will be heavy.

I’d want to be south of this line, evening is still early. Once mesoscale boundaries start colliding it could get a little more hit or miss.

Stoked.


1644A13C-16D1-4159-B7E9-73DE957D9E33.jpeg
 
IMO someone in this highlighted area are going to be seeing flash flood warnings later and someone inside there will see a significant amount of rainfall. Convergent boundary sliding southward already past VA border along with decaying MCS from yesterday moving over the mountains now with an attached meso low sliding with it generally to the East. Where these converge will squeeze out the immense amount of water the atmosphere is holding currently and cause big problems. Back building/ training all the sorts will cause problems .. I think more people “hit” today than usual but still more than likely there will be losers again. Hopefully whoever they are have already seen their fair share of water.View attachment 119840View attachment 119839
Not too shabby of a call C0CE1619-263B-4C98-A2C1-1B65C82B4E34.jpeg
 
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