• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Juggernaut June

Since model upgrades were recently discussed in here, I thought this would be a relevant piece of information to pass along to everyone. The HRRR will be running out to 48 hours on the 0z, 6z, 12z, & 18z runs instead of 36 as is currently the case.

View attachment 20372

What’s the reason they don’t extend it out to 36 currently (and 48 in the future) for every run? Too much processing power to do that every hour? Or lack of info?
 
Nice Mid October like feeling here, such a nice night
But wth are those 2 orbs I see in the middle of the pic , no joke, ofc that’s a plane on the left since I live near concord regional airport 1BE877D3-3EBD-473B-9127-564ACF43D04B.jpeg
 
Hmm, we’ve seen those weird, very local bands of rain occur before, through convergence and Convective processes, hrrr gets a mesoscale type band going tommorow, a little similar to a deform band but much thinner 295697C8-19A3-4FFB-961A-7D9599C66C47.jpeg
 
Got the feeling that that currently modeled weaker ridge will trend stronger as time gets closer, EPS is beginning to look like that, this will likely be a “humid” heatwave, hopefully it can stay like this so warm midlevels that cap off convection won’t be a issue 2C16D937-00D5-4833-9914-0DCE56162770.gif71F116F7-E5BE-4644-9A71-AFAF0588536C.gif
 
Prelim. flood damage total is out. $2 million dollars in Wilkes County in the agriculture sector.
 
not quite as good as the models progs over there, but its Dallas in the summer...

so I went to break in my car at work like usual at 4pm today and it was dark and dreary and started to rain and was 75 degrees... had to turn off the AC(which is usually blasting) and open the windows

Junetober

The airport only hit 78... crazy
 
Assuming the NAM is out to lunch since the NWS doesn’t even mention it. If it’s off by 1 county that 1-3” would flood the escarpment.
 
Assuming the NAM is out to lunch since the NWS doesn’t even mention it. If it’s off by 1 county that 1-3” would flood the escarpment.
A freeze watch may be needed Thursday night
 
Likely gonna see microburst activity really flare up next week as high cape/solid lapse rates and high amounts of low level moisture become present along with weak SWs passing through along with the lee trough, also dry air aloft and typical summer temps from diabatic heating likely gonna allow high Downdraft cape, This is what has been taking a minute, but this pattern definitely supports it, D11437BC-4261-4B5F-B1E8-62A218790ABB.gifand also leftover thunderstorms clusters
 
The FV3 operational era has just commenced. As much as I’ve been disappointed in its performance as the parallel run, I have no hard feelings and wish it luck as the new operational. Keep in mind that this new GFS is supposed to take longer to complete its run.
 
Back
Top