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Pattern Juggernaut June

GaWx said:
The FV3 operational era has just commenced. As much as I’ve been disappointed in its performance as the parallel run, I have no hard feelings and wish it luck as the new operational. Keep in mind that this new GFS is supposed to take longer to complete its run.
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It can be viewed at regular time at the ncep site if I’m not mistaken
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, but the duration from start to end is supposedly going to be longer because of the higher resolution after hour 240 per a pro met.
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Oh it’s getting higher res after hour 240?!? I remember how bad the gfs looks sometimes after hour 240, lmao
 
Corps of engineers and dam officials are headed to Wilkes county. Heavy Water release through next week. No damages and worked as designed to prevent catastrophic flooding downstream like in the 1940’s.
 
GaWx said:
Reminder: despite the new operational GFS, the GEFS is not changing at this time and supposedly won’t til at least 2020.
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We love the ensembles just the way we are. Everyone can appreciate a 6” ensemble mean 4 days out only to have it ripped away at closing time.
 
So, it appears that the 12Z GFS ran faster through hour 240. I have the 240 hour map coming in 12 minutes faster than the old GFS's 240. But since then (after 240), the hamster got real tired and it slowed down a lot vs the old GFS.
 
The GEFS used to be my favorite thing to look at until 2016. We had a huge January 2016 snow bust, and ALL the GEFS members had ATL in 4+ inches. Ever since then it has continued to just embarrass itself.
 
LMAO, one can see the strong cold bias in the FV3 from the start. As Donald Trump might say, this is a disaster, folks! Check out this link, which has the cooling degree days (CDD) for each day. Note how much colder is the 12Z run vs the 3 prior runs from day 1!! This has to be due to a very strong cold bias. Time to scrap this crap.

https://dashboard.truewx.com/energy/

Note the 6 CDD drop for just days 1-5 vs just the 6Z run, which was based on the old GFS! I've been following this for a long time and have never seen that much of a DD change that early in the run from one GFS run to the next.
 
Also, the GEFS is running MUCH faster (by 10 minutes) than prior GEFS runs. It supposedly hasn't changed but is it running faster because it is running on a faster computer?
 
GaWx said:
LMAO, one can see the strong cold bias in the FV3 from the start. As Donald Trump might say, this is a disaster, folks! Check out this link, which has the cooling degree days (CDD) for each day. Note how much colder is the 12Z run vs the 3 prior runs from day 1!! This has to be due to a very strong cold bias. Time to scrap this crap.

https://dashboard.truewx.com/energy/

Note the 6 CDD drop for just days 1-5 vs just the 6Z run, which was based on the old GFS! I've been following this for a long time and have never seen that much of a DD change that early in the run from one GFS run to the next.
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Supposedly they were working on fixing the cold bias and some other issues hence the delay. I guess we will find out soon if they did or not... especially this winter.
 
Here is the link to the update info: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

Here are the important algorithm changes:

GFS Version 15.1 maintains a horizontal resolution of 13 km and has 64 levels in the vertical extending up to 0.2 hPa.
It uses the same physics package as the current operational GFS except for:
-Replacement of Zhao-Carr microphysics with the more advanced GFDL microphysics
-Updated parameterization of ozone photochemistry with additional production and loss terms
-Newly introduced parameterization of middle atmospheric water vapor photochemistry
-Revised bare soil evaporation scheme
-Modified convective parameterization scheme to reduce excessive cloud top cooling.

Assimilation changes:

1) Changes to Data Assimilation
- Add Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) moisture channels
- Add Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) all-sky radiances
- Add Megha-Tropiques SAPHIR data
- Add Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) data from MetOp-B
- Upgrade the use of Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) radiances
- Add Meteosat-11 SEVIRI channels 5 and 6
- Add NPP OMPS profile and total column ozone
- Monitor NOAA-19 SBUV/2, Metop-C AMSUA and MHS, GOES-17 AMVs
- Add ability to read drifting and moored buoy data
- Update quality control for GOES atmospheric motion vector (AMV) winds
- Upgrade specific humidity perturbation and statistics physics tendency perturbation with new parameter settings in ensemble forecast; statistical kinetic energy backscattering perturbation is excluded
- Remove digital filter and storm relocation
- Increase horizontal resolution of the ensemble part of the hybrid data assimilation from 35 km to 25 km
- Update the Near Sea Surface Temperature scheme to apply Sea Surface Temperature climatology tendency to the foundation temperature and reduce background error correlation length

Here is what they say abt the cold bias:

Several individual case studies illustrate the model occasionally produces excessive snow in the medium range.
EMC also noted a persistent cold bias that increases with forecast time. EMC will continue to explore ways to address these issues.

Speed of data: GFS 14 is old. GFS 15 is the FV3

- The current operational GFS V14 is run at a coarser horizontal resolution beyond forecast hour 240; GFS V15 will run at a uniform, high resolution throughout the entire forecast length up to 384 hours. As a result, the delivery of all GFS products after 240 hours of forecast will be delayed. The last products at forecast hour 384 will be delayed by up to 20 minutes.



My understanding is that this is not THE update for the GFS. Rather its the new core that they will build upon in the future. This opens the door to the changes they want to make in the years to come. GFS FV3 is a new engine to work on. It'll have bugs and all that comes with a new model.
 
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When you realize soundings are supportive of small hail tommorow and deep layer shear is very impressive for this time of the year 7C705B12-D8F6-4B77-9524-6E8EC9816D3A.png02F90FAF-B731-441F-979B-F44D39C0CC14.png31BDD6F8-0B86-4932-88A3-22B79DD32C48.png
 
Looks like we get into the typical summer pattern starting Saturday and really getting going next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints either side of 70. Interesting pattern next week with a zonal flow/ low amplitude trough. Going to be quite a few storm complexes and MCVs around not to mention general afternoon instability storms.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Looks like we get into the typical summer pattern starting Saturday and really getting going next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints either side of 70. Interesting pattern next week with a zonal flow/ low amplitude trough. Going to be quite a few storm complexes and MCVs around not to mention general afternoon instability storms.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Microburst SZN FE53C216-F02B-450A-A25D-AADE61CF7E28.jpeg
 
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