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Pattern Juggernaut June

Webberweather53 said:
Since model upgrades were recently discussed in here, I thought this would be a relevant piece of information to pass along to everyone. The HRRR will be running out to 48 hours on the 0z, 6z, 12z, & 18z runs instead of 36 as is currently the case.

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What’s the reason they don’t extend it out to 36 currently (and 48 in the future) for every run? Too much processing power to do that every hour? Or lack of info?
 
Nice Mid October like feeling here, such a nice night
But wth are those 2 orbs I see in the middle of the pic , no joke, ofc that’s a plane on the left since I live near concord regional airport 1BE877D3-3EBD-473B-9127-564ACF43D04B.jpeg
 
Hmm, we’ve seen those weird, very local bands of rain occur before, through convergence and Convective processes, hrrr gets a mesoscale type band going tommorow, a little similar to a deform band but much thinner 295697C8-19A3-4FFB-961A-7D9599C66C47.jpeg
 
Got the feeling that that currently modeled weaker ridge will trend stronger as time gets closer, EPS is beginning to look like that, this will likely be a “humid” heatwave, hopefully it can stay like this so warm midlevels that cap off convection won’t be a issue 2C16D937-00D5-4833-9914-0DCE56162770.gif71F116F7-E5BE-4644-9A71-AFAF0588536C.gif
 
Prelim. flood damage total is out. $2 million dollars in Wilkes County in the agriculture sector.
 
not quite as good as the models progs over there, but its Dallas in the summer...

so I went to break in my car at work like usual at 4pm today and it was dark and dreary and started to rain and was 75 degrees... had to turn off the AC(which is usually blasting) and open the windows

Junetober

The airport only hit 78... crazy
 
Assuming the NAM is out to lunch since the NWS doesn’t even mention it. If it’s off by 1 county that 1-3” would flood the escarpment.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Assuming the NAM is out to lunch since the NWS doesn’t even mention it. If it’s off by 1 county that 1-3” would flood the escarpment.
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A freeze watch may be needed Thursday night
 
Likely gonna see microburst activity really flare up next week as high cape/solid lapse rates and high amounts of low level moisture become present along with weak SWs passing through along with the lee trough, also dry air aloft and typical summer temps from diabatic heating likely gonna allow high Downdraft cape, This is what has been taking a minute, but this pattern definitely supports it, D11437BC-4261-4B5F-B1E8-62A218790ABB.gifand also leftover thunderstorms clusters
 
The FV3 operational era has just commenced. As much as I’ve been disappointed in its performance as the parallel run, I have no hard feelings and wish it luck as the new operational. Keep in mind that this new GFS is supposed to take longer to complete its run.
 
GaWx said:
The FV3 operational era has just commenced. As much as I’ve been disappointed in its performance as the parallel run, I have no hard feelings and wish it luck as the new operational. Keep in mind that this new GFS is supposed to take longer to complete its run.
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It can be viewed at regular time at the ncep site if I’m not mistaken
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, but the duration from start to end is supposedly going to be longer because of the higher resolution after hour 240 per a pro met.
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Oh it’s getting higher res after hour 240?!? I remember how bad the gfs looks sometimes after hour 240, lmao
 
Corps of engineers and dam officials are headed to Wilkes county. Heavy Water release through next week. No damages and worked as designed to prevent catastrophic flooding downstream like in the 1940’s.
 
GaWx said:
Reminder: despite the new operational GFS, the GEFS is not changing at this time and supposedly won’t til at least 2020.
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We love the ensembles just the way we are. Everyone can appreciate a 6” ensemble mean 4 days out only to have it ripped away at closing time.
 
So, it appears that the 12Z GFS ran faster through hour 240. I have the 240 hour map coming in 12 minutes faster than the old GFS's 240. But since then (after 240), the hamster got real tired and it slowed down a lot vs the old GFS.
 
The GEFS used to be my favorite thing to look at until 2016. We had a huge January 2016 snow bust, and ALL the GEFS members had ATL in 4+ inches. Ever since then it has continued to just embarrass itself.
 
LMAO, one can see the strong cold bias in the FV3 from the start. As Donald Trump might say, this is a disaster, folks! Check out this link, which has the cooling degree days (CDD) for each day. Note how much colder is the 12Z run vs the 3 prior runs from day 1!! This has to be due to a very strong cold bias. Time to scrap this crap.

https://dashboard.truewx.com/energy/

Note the 6 CDD drop for just days 1-5 vs just the 6Z run, which was based on the old GFS! I've been following this for a long time and have never seen that much of a DD change that early in the run from one GFS run to the next.
 
Also, the GEFS is running MUCH faster (by 10 minutes) than prior GEFS runs. It supposedly hasn't changed but is it running faster because it is running on a faster computer?
 
GaWx said:
LMAO, one can see the strong cold bias in the FV3 from the start. As Donald Trump might say, this is a disaster, folks! Check out this link, which has the cooling degree days (CDD) for each day. Note how much colder is the 12Z run vs the 3 prior runs from day 1!! This has to be due to a very strong cold bias. Time to scrap this crap.

https://dashboard.truewx.com/energy/

Note the 6 CDD drop for just days 1-5 vs just the 6Z run, which was based on the old GFS! I've been following this for a long time and have never seen that much of a DD change that early in the run from one GFS run to the next.
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Supposedly they were working on fixing the cold bias and some other issues hence the delay. I guess we will find out soon if they did or not... especially this winter.
 
Here is the link to the update info: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

Here are the important algorithm changes:

GFS Version 15.1 maintains a horizontal resolution of 13 km and has 64 levels in the vertical extending up to 0.2 hPa.
It uses the same physics package as the current operational GFS except for:
-Replacement of Zhao-Carr microphysics with the more advanced GFDL microphysics
-Updated parameterization of ozone photochemistry with additional production and loss terms
-Newly introduced parameterization of middle atmospheric water vapor photochemistry
-Revised bare soil evaporation scheme
-Modified convective parameterization scheme to reduce excessive cloud top cooling.

Assimilation changes:

1) Changes to Data Assimilation
- Add Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) moisture channels
- Add Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) all-sky radiances
- Add Megha-Tropiques SAPHIR data
- Add Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) data from MetOp-B
- Upgrade the use of Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) radiances
- Add Meteosat-11 SEVIRI channels 5 and 6
- Add NPP OMPS profile and total column ozone
- Monitor NOAA-19 SBUV/2, Metop-C AMSUA and MHS, GOES-17 AMVs
- Add ability to read drifting and moored buoy data
- Update quality control for GOES atmospheric motion vector (AMV) winds
- Upgrade specific humidity perturbation and statistics physics tendency perturbation with new parameter settings in ensemble forecast; statistical kinetic energy backscattering perturbation is excluded
- Remove digital filter and storm relocation
- Increase horizontal resolution of the ensemble part of the hybrid data assimilation from 35 km to 25 km
- Update the Near Sea Surface Temperature scheme to apply Sea Surface Temperature climatology tendency to the foundation temperature and reduce background error correlation length

Here is what they say abt the cold bias:

Several individual case studies illustrate the model occasionally produces excessive snow in the medium range.
EMC also noted a persistent cold bias that increases with forecast time. EMC will continue to explore ways to address these issues.

Speed of data: GFS 14 is old. GFS 15 is the FV3

- The current operational GFS V14 is run at a coarser horizontal resolution beyond forecast hour 240; GFS V15 will run at a uniform, high resolution throughout the entire forecast length up to 384 hours. As a result, the delivery of all GFS products after 240 hours of forecast will be delayed. The last products at forecast hour 384 will be delayed by up to 20 minutes.



My understanding is that this is not THE update for the GFS. Rather its the new core that they will build upon in the future. This opens the door to the changes they want to make in the years to come. GFS FV3 is a new engine to work on. It'll have bugs and all that comes with a new model.
 
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When you realize soundings are supportive of small hail tommorow and deep layer shear is very impressive for this time of the year 7C705B12-D8F6-4B77-9524-6E8EC9816D3A.png02F90FAF-B731-441F-979B-F44D39C0CC14.png31BDD6F8-0B86-4932-88A3-22B79DD32C48.png
 
Looks like we get into the typical summer pattern starting Saturday and really getting going next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints either side of 70. Interesting pattern next week with a zonal flow/ low amplitude trough. Going to be quite a few storm complexes and MCVs around not to mention general afternoon instability storms.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Looks like we get into the typical summer pattern starting Saturday and really getting going next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints either side of 70. Interesting pattern next week with a zonal flow/ low amplitude trough. Going to be quite a few storm complexes and MCVs around not to mention general afternoon instability storms.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Microburst SZN FE53C216-F02B-450A-A25D-AADE61CF7E28.jpeg
 
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