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Pattern Juggernaut June

A stellar day here in Nashville on Music Row, sunny and temps in the upper 70's.

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0z CMC has upper 30s and low 40s for northern NC mountains at hr 102. Bring the plants in.
 
Record low not far from here of 51 in Jackson TN this morning. Nice!!
 
Ugh oh. NAM really trending west with 1-3” of rain this week for Boone, Hickory and Wilkesboro.
 
NAM could be wrong, for a developing cyclone it could be difficult to predict until it forms. NWS is watching a enhanced bullseye on the stable north-west quad per Blacksburg AFD. The following day shear increases quiet a bit for VA Piedmont.
 
Some 2 day rainfall totals include 19.7” in Watauga in the mountains to 16.7” in Alexander (foothills). -Brad Pan
 
A lot more people would have died if it wasn’t for the Kerr Scott Damn in Wilkes holding everything from going down stream. The pool exceeded 1970 records at 1,065ft. It will be released today as areas downstream can handle it now.
 
I'm expecting very generous rainfall (2-4") between today and tomorrow. I've already received ~3.5" of drought reducing rainfall over the last week.

Note that the big drought busting rains over much of the SE have occurred without a tropical cyclone but rather just with tropical moisture.
 
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DOT saying some of the roads that got washed out in northern Wake might take until the end of August to open back up.
 
Over 80+ swift water rescues and 4,000 NCSHP calls for help were made during the June 2019 flood. -WXII12
 
.9" last night to bring up the total to 5.15" and finally a break for today.

New drought map should have most of the yellows/dark yellows/oranges gone in the southeast.
 
I wish the CMC would update. The rain totals it showed were biblical.
 
GaWx said:
Yes. I think it is a coincidence that they're only one day apart since the GFS "upgrade" has been delayed several times.
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Going to be fun to see how accurate they are this winter.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
u gonna whine even more if they become more accurate. Maybe the north-west trend will vanish and just show the right solution to begin with over the foothills instead of wake county
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$2.99 32oz Dos Equis was flowing a’plenty tonight. How them monthly’s looking?
 
Like I said, when the west coast is done with their heat it will scorch the east coast while they snow out again up in Rockies. Rinse and repeat pattern. Nothing is sticking. Hurricane season is trending up in numbers but the pattern is largely unknown.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Like I said, when the west coast is done with their heat it will scorch the east coast while they snow out again up in Rockies. Rinse and repeat pattern. Nothing is sticking. Hurricane season is trending up in numbers but the pattern is largely unknown.
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The bird is right
 
GaWx said:
Well, the first run of the upgraded Euro suite is done and the verdict is...……………………....a stronger SE ridge. Yay!!! I say send it back for another update.
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What SER ... the whole eastern continent looks to bask in its gory glory ..

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Since model upgrades were recently discussed in here, I thought this would be a relevant piece of information to pass along to everyone. The HRRR will be running out to 48 hours on the 0z, 6z, 12z, & 18z runs instead of 36 as is currently the case.

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