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Pattern Jarring January

Let me remind; that this potential could be coming during another pattern shift of sorts. Lets be happy we are looking at a snowier situation versus ice.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree this is not a clipper at this point. Yes origins are around there but it's a piece that pretty much or almost become detached from the main trof. Oh btw, I hope this isn't rude, but since when is the potential for 2-3" of snow NOT a big deal??
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I mean it's a big deal I guess especially for Macon. I might be spoiled because I live in the ATL and I haven't seen a 4+ snow in a while since 2011. Really wanna see that again. And I hope for the day when I have 6+ possibly in my backyard. I've researched a couple of storms that were 5-8 inches officially in the ATL. Would love for that to happen again soon in my lifetime and backyard haha.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree this is not a clipper at this point. Yes origins are around there but it's a piece that pretty much or almost become detached from the main trof. Oh btw, I hope this isn't rude, but since when is the potential for 2-3" of snow NOT a big deal??
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Hmm, someone posted a video of Brad Travis about it, and it is an Alberta Clipper. Not saying it can't pick up some energy from a wave, but it's origins are as a clipper.
 
1300m said:
I don't see the cold air lagging being an issue nor do I see the coastal low factoring into this at all for anyone other than far eastern Carolinas and northward without the upper trough dramatically digging further southwest. I do agree that the critical element is how soon the trough tilts - there is little to no wiggle room with that. All in all, we have pretty different interpretations of this event, that much is clear, and that's ok. Good to have more than one viewpoint sometimes.
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I disagree, the EPS and ECMWF clearly suggest however that cold air could be an issue (even aloft) with RDU sitting on the SE fringe of the heaviest snows arguing that sleet and rain are liable to mix in (while the GFS as usual is probably too flat and too east) and climatolgically cold air is almost always an issue in at least 90% of winter storms here... The coastal low is definitely in play at this juncture even further west, a weak/flat overrunning could sneak in even inland of the coast with impressive broad southwesterly flow ahead of the upper level trough. A localized center of excess diabatic heating in concurrence with convection that will develop along the Gulf Coast could easily evolve and propagate upscale further NW into the Carolinas and GA and result in a weak/flat wave that's inland of the Carolinas and lead to issue with cold air especially in the mid levels where we often need it the most.
 
Stormlover said:
Hmm, someone posted a video of Brad Travis about it, and it is an Alberta Clipper
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As it swings through from the source region of Alberta, it will be considered that. As it continues to amplify and change "forms" at H5, it will be an entirely separate entity with a likely surface low/coastal becoming dominant.
 
I've heard that clippers tend to not produce well for Alabama. What will we be looking for that may give us a sign that we could get snow this next week? I live above B'ham in Etowah. We tend to fair well in most snow scenarios. Just curious.
 
whatalife said:
The 18z GEFS is wetter then the last couple of runs.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Whoa, this is huge! Very good confidence booster that we will have a good snow storm.
 
Alias47 said:
I've heard that clippers tend to not produce well for Alabama. What will we be looking for that may give us a sign that we could get snow this next week? I live above B'ham in Etowah. We tend to fair well in most snow scenarios. Just curious.
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A deeper, track with a strong push of the cold. Watch the wind directions and flow. It's not a standard "clipper" when it comes across in the way you are used to seeing them swing through to your North. Usually, even NC struggles with a standard clipper feature, while this time the Southern dive and strength is better for many further into the South.
 
Shawn said:
Like @Storm5 said, I suggest you guys keep a look out on the precipitable water maps from the GFS and other modeling at "pivotal weather". (the ones on tropical tidbits wont show much, as they are anomaly maps). The drier they get, the less chance of appreciable moisture breaking out for all areas.

If they continue to show wetter, that's a good thing!
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deltadog03 said:
I agree this is not a clipper at this point. Yes origins are around there but it's a piece that pretty much or almost become detached from the main trof. Oh btw, I hope this isn't rude, but since when is the potential for 2-3" of snow NOT a big deal??
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Very good pts on both parts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
A deeper, track with a strong push of the cold. Watch the wind directions and flow. It's not a standard "clipper" when it comes across in the way you are used to seeing them swing through to your North. Usually, even NC struggles with a standard clipper feature, while this time the Southern dive and strength is better for many further into the South.
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You can’t explain it no better then that!!!
 
Shawn said:
A deeper, track with a strong push of the cold. Watch the wind directions and flow. It's not a standard "clipper" when it comes across in the way you are used to seeing them swing through to your North. Usually, even NC struggles with a standard clipper feature, while this time the Southern dive and strength is better for many further into the South.
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Awesome explanation! Thanks!
 
Shawn said:
As it swings through from the source region of Alberta, it will be considered that. As it continues to amplify and change "forms" at H5, it will be an entirely separate entity with a likely surface low/coastal becoming dominant.
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I'm all for that!
 
Webberweather53 said:
I disagree, the EPS and ECMWF clearly suggest however that cold air could be an issue (even aloft) with RDU sitting on the SE fringe of the heaviest snows arguing that sleet and rain are liable to mix in (while the GFS as usual is probably too flat and too east) and climatolgically cold air is almost always an issue in at least 90% of winter storms here... The coastal low is definitely in play at this juncture even further west, a weak/flat overrunning could sneak in even inland of the coast with impressive broad southwesterly flow ahead of the upper level trough. A localized center of excess diabatic heating in concurrence with convection that will develop along the Gulf Coast could easily evolve and propagate upscale further NW into the Carolinas and GA and result in a weak/flat wave that's inland of the Carolinas and lead to issue with cold air especially in the mid levels where we often need it the most.
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Even in the Feb 1984 case where our s/w came out of ND and dove SE practically all the way to the apps and central Carolinas and GA the R-S line was as far west as eastern Wake County...
 
From NWS Mobile:

A strong surface cold front will continue moving south across the
Gulf of Mexico, allowing very cold temperatures to advect into the
forecast area from the north through Tuesday night. Sub-freezing
temperatures are expected to push all the way to the gulf coast by
late Tuesday night, allowing the light rain to change over to all
snow as far south as the northern gulf.

Snow accumulations will be determined at a late time, but a blend
of the GFS and ECMWF currently have up to one inch snow north of
I-10. Snow accumulations may end up being even higher as the
thermal profiles may still be a bit a underdone. Dynamic cooling
in the lower levels due to evaporative cooling and the "dragging"
of cold air aloft closer to surface is sometimes not accounted for
in the models, and additional moisture may be drawn in ahead of
the system. This system is pushing through rather fast, so the
entire event will be less then 24 hours. Dry conditions will
follow Wednesday and Thursday behind the cold front. Much below
normal temperatures will persist through the long term. /22
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1300m said:
That's fine, but that is not what the EPS and ECMWF are indicating at this juncture with this system. The only reason for the sharp cutoff is due to the heaviest QPF axis being further west, not warm air.
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Actually, the ECMWF is in fact showing mixing over RDU like I said & surface temps are above freezing for some of the event
ecmwf_ptype_raleigh_22.png
 
Storm5 said:
What's the catalyst for a NW trend ??? The Pacific is driving the pattern , it's extremely progressive . The typical NW trend worry is far less in this setup . I'm far more worried about squash city
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It can easily trend north, the models love to over do the northern stream all the time. It can still "squash" it and move the trough farther NW.
 
NWS CAE mentioning a possibility of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. A local met around these parts (WIS) is sorta honking the horn a bit to early though.
 
Stormlover said:
there is nothing to trend northwest, this is clipper
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Sure there is, you weaken the trough and the wave axis is farther north. The models overdo the cold push all the time. Is it gonna trend long distances, no but it can definitely end up farther north that modeled.
 
1300m said:
Nice try. RDU is below freezing from 925 up and surface temp is at 35F. You think that would be a mix? Get real.
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Lol idk why you're getting angry about this it's actually warmer in earlier frames at the surface. We need enough time to push the isothermal melting layer to the ground with surface temps in the mid 30s, light QPF won't cut it. Taking the surface output from the models verbatim this far out isn't a good idea even if it's warmer by a degree or two than advertised that will lead to more mixing
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol idk why you're getting angry about this it's actually warmer in earlier frames at the surface. We need enough time to push the isothermal melting layer to the ground with surface temps in the mid 30s and light QPF won't cut it. Taking the surface output from the models verbatim this far out isn't a good idea even if it's warmer by a degree or two than advertised that will lead to more mixing
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Let's not argue guys. But @1300 does have a point. There seems to be inaccuracies with the cold air aloft supportive if snow all through the column on the Euro, but yet it shows rain and mixing well inland. Seems wrong and suspicious.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Let's not argue guys. But @1300 does have a point. There seems to be inaccuracies with the cold air aloft supportive if snow all through the column on the Euro, but yet it shows rain and mixing well inland. Seems wrong and suspicious.
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It's showing rain because the temps are above freezing at the surface and the QPF is too light... I'd like to see a storm where RDU doesn't get shafted and observes all snow because historically that almost never happens. Even the infamous Jan 88 event where snow fell with temps in the 10s at RDU we changed over to ZR near the end
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's showing rain because the temps are above freezing at the surface and the QPF is too light... I'd like to see a storm where RDU doesn't get shafted and observes all snow because historically that almost never happens. Even the infamous Jan 88 event where snow fell with temps in the 10s at RDU we changed over to ZR near the end
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Well dang! I imagine the rain must have froze on the surface instantly! Okay I see your point. Understood. It needs to fall heavier to support snow to fall all the way down from the column in this situation otherwise it's just sleet and freezing rain. Gotcha. It's like what happened in Atlanta back in early December. We started as rain but the heavier precip changed it over to snow while you got shafted with just rain.
 
Clayton Reid said:
I mean it's a big deal I guess especially for Macon. I might be spoiled because I live in the ATL and I haven't seen a 4+ snow in a while since 2011. Really wanna see that again. And I hope for the day when I have 6+ possibly in my backyard. I've researched a couple of storms that were 5-8 inches officially in the ATL. Would love for that to happen again soon in my lifetime and backyard haha.
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I live near Northside Hospital ITP. It happened five weeks ago.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Well dang! I imagine the rain most have froze on the surface instantly! Okay I see your point. Understood. It needs to fall heavier to support snow to fall all the way down from the column in this situation otherwise it's just sleet and freezing rain. Gotcha. It's like what happened in Atlanta back in early December. We started as rain but the heavier precip changed it over to snow while you got shafted with just rain.
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It's a risky proposition to claim we're gonna be all snow here even with a fantastic large scale setup, it rarely if ever happens for a reason. Sure it could be a majority snow but if surface temps are warmer than forecast by the Euro that will delay the changeover to all snow.
1300m said:
It's just an error in the ptype-algorithm (probably just a WxBell thing), that precip would be snow in real life. With temps from 925 to 850mb well below freezing, the 1000-850mb thickness is most assuredly below 1300m (hey, that looks familiar!), and even colder from 850 to 700mb, so the ptype would be snow.
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Again have to be careful here, even if the temps are below 32F to the ground light-very light QPF depicted at the onset on this Euro run is often just freezing drizzle until legitimate precipitation moves in.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Well dang! I imagine the rain must have froze on the surface instantly! Okay I see your point. Understood. It needs to fall heavier to support snow to fall all the way down from the column in this situation otherwise it's just sleet and freezing rain. Gotcha. It's like what happened in Atlanta back in early December. We started as rain but the heavier precip changed it over to snow while you got shafted with just rain.
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I'll try not to take this too off topic, but I remember when I experienced the Christmas snow of 2010, in the evening there was very light drizzle (and no it wasn't even freezing drizzle as it was 34-35).
It didn't hurt it but then again there was another half inch to an inch of snow that fell overnight on top of the about 4" that we saw during that day.
 
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