• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jarring January

I don't see Larry's stupid cold high coming down, but there is some significant cold on the 18z GFS. Looks to be above average for hours 192-222. Not much of a warm up. I'll be interested to see how it verifies and the final tally for the winter.
 
Here's hour 312. Looks like lots of "potential."
prateptype_cat.us_ma.png
 
I wouldn't call this a true clipper but that's just me. We saw a similar situation in Jan 2000 and December of 2000 where an upper trough dropped in and strong energy drove down the backside of the trough while the northern part of the trough exited stage right. This allowed the southern part to slow, close off and spawn a sfc low. Perhaps I'm wrong but that's how I see it. It's a real butt clinching scenario since we are waiting on a negative tilt and precip to essentially blossom over the area. Not my favorite but the net result can be awesome if all goes well

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
NW trend may be unlikely here with the depth of the cold push. The low that spawns off the coast of North Carolina needs to be figured out, though. A further South and Western development (faster amplification) will lead to massive forecast challenges for the Carolinas.
 
In fact if you take a look at some members of the ensemble runs, they show a much different scenario with the formation of the low and how much moisture really gets involved. See "E11" from the 12z GEFS.
 
Shawn said:
NW trend may be unlikely here with the depth of the cold push. The low that spawns off the coast of North Carolina needs to be figured out, though. A further South and Western development (faster amplification) will lead to massive forecast challenges for the Carolinas.
Click to expand...
I'm much more concerned about a later negative tilt and an eastward end result. Hard to get excited about this outside of 72 hours until there is some model agreement on how the energy is dispersed and handled in the trough construct

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
This gives you a good picture of what I'm talking about with how the trough starts leaving elongates the strong energy at the base of the trough gets left behind and goes nuts instead if just rushing through if the trough was more full latitude and really carved out

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
aec58f615695fa40ead7b8644ec77152.gif
 
Looks like a good run for the 18z GEFS. Looks better on the initial wave in AL, N GA, and NW SC. Also looks like there were not as many that bombed the coastal up the east coast. I'm sure someone will post the better maps in a bit, but here's one of the snow depth maps:
snod.conus.png
 
Storm5 said:
Not gonna get a NW trend with this . If anything squash city is a higher risk

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
If we don't get a NW trend, I don't see this as being a meaningful event. I was at least shooting for a 2-3+ event for most possibly with temps in the 20s but looks like we.cant get any bigger than that this season it seems. Okay then
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like a good run for the 18z GEFS. Looks better on the initial wave in AL, N GA, and NW SC. Also looks like there were not as many that bombed the coastal up the east coast. I'm sure someone will post the better maps in a bit, but here's one of the snow depth maps:
snod.conus.png
Click to expand...

That looks better then the 12z GEFS overall. Wxbell maps are slow coming out...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Thanks Alot!!
Click to expand...
Meteorologist1999 said:
I was talking about members... Maybe you CAN,T Read!! Thanks 1300M thats all I been asking!!
Click to expand...
Members are on here somewhere already. Relax, just see you asking a lot of the same question and letting you know that everything you need to know for the most part gets posted by everyone else. Wasn’t trying to be rude.
 
ColaSnow said:
Concur. Asking that question after every run is annoying. If you can halfway follow the conversation and extrapolate the maps/model runs, then really no reason to constantly ask that question over and over.
Click to expand...
I wasn't asking you... This is a Forum where we should all be able questions.. I am a proud supporter of this site.. and enjoy hearing information from the People on here if you don't have an answer to my question just don't respond!!
 
Storm5 said:
For sure not looking for a big hit out of this setup. But I'll sure as hell take an inch with temps in the 20s

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I think the possibility is there 2-4" if we can have this continue to trend away from being a straight clipper.
 
Arcc said:
I don't agree. A NW trend is likely with the system IMO. Now you may be right about a squash, but it will probably be a squashed NW trend.
Click to expand...
What's the catalyst for a NW trend ??? The Pacific is driving the pattern , it's extremely progressive . The typical NW trend worry is far less in this setup . I'm far more worried about squash city
 
Storm5 said:
What's the catalyst for a NW trend ??? The Pacific is driving the pattern , it's extremely progressive . The typical NW trend worry is far less in this setup . I'm far more worried about squash city
Click to expand...
Yeah, the only ones really worried about a NW trend right now are the MA and NE states with the coastal.
 
Like @Storm5 said, I suggest you guys keep a look out on the precipitable water maps from the GFS and other modeling at "pivotal weather". (the ones on tropical tidbits wont show much, as they are anomaly maps). The drier they get, the less chance of appreciable moisture breaking out for all areas.

If they continue to show wetter, that's a good thing!
 
I agree this is not a clipper at this point. Yes origins are around there but it's a piece that pretty much or almost become detached from the main trof. Oh btw, I hope this isn't rude, but since when is the potential for 2-3" of snow NOT a big deal??
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree this is not a clipper at this point. Yes origins are around there but it's a piece that pretty much or almost become detached from the main trof. Oh btw, I hope this isn't rude, but since when is the potential for 2-3" of snow NOT a big deal??
Click to expand...

I'm happy to even see half an inch showing up through here; and am noticing the GEFS going a bit wetter each run. Ensemble support isn't horrible, and while it may be unlikely to see a "big one" from this; there are a lot of things that can go in a lot of our favors to see a notable event.

If we can get around 0.25 QPF +, I call that a great thing, as the 2-3 inch snows will likely happen.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree this is not a clipper at this point. Yes origins are around there but it's a piece that pretty much or almost become detached from the main trof. Oh btw, I hope this isn't rude, but since when is the potential for 2-3" of snow NOT a big deal??
Click to expand...

Right, 2-3" is Winter Storm Warning criteria around these parts.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top