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Pattern Jarring January

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I would feel a lot better about this setup if this s/w was separated from the northern stream but it's still attached all the way to the SE US coast and enters the US from MN & WI... Hard to put much trust into a weak frontal wave riding along an arctic front to spread moisture back into the Carolinas at day 5... Need another 36-48 hours before I'm very interested.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I would feel a lot better about this setup if this s/w was separated from the northern stream but it's still attached all the way to the SE US coast and enters the US from MN & WI... Hard to put much trust into a weak frontal wave riding along an arctic front to spread moisture back into the Carolinas at day 5... Need another 36-48 hours before I'm very interested.
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Same here. I would love to see some separation here.
 
hartselleweather said:
Why is there a snow hole in Birmingham ? Should it be something to worry about ?? Lol
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Yes, but it's exact location will change. You have the clipper moisture drying out and then the overrunning/weak wave taking off. There will be a shaft zone in this setup almost like a Miller B.
 
Damn, this is fun watching and reading; got thoughts but not worth posting, except to say i) that for perhaps the 3rd time this year Gainesville will be rooting for y'all north and west of here, and ii) that if only the PNA and MJO would cooperate and allow this to continue until March ... :confused:

Good luck on some more snow, Folks! ;)
 
GaWx said:
New Arctic high supported by the 12Z GEFS to reach the SE 1/22. If so, that means warmup lasts no more than 2 days. Based on this, I don't think it would be premature to increase discussions on how cold this month is liable to turn out vs past cold Januaries. I'm already wondering if it will challenge 2014, which was the coldest January in KATL (6.3 colder than normal) and other areas since 1985! No, it won't be as cold as 1940 or 1977. But a top 10 percentile cold January is becoming more and more possible.
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The 122Z GFS/GEFS 1/22 Arctic high not on the 12Z Euro at all (nor the 0Z).
 
Hard not to get excited with the Euro and GFS both showing a good storm with similar totals.
 
Looks like the totals went down some on the Euro. Still a good 3 to 4 here.
 
1300m said:
Ignore. Would have been 6-8" like the GFS depicted.
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Euro is further West than the GFS with the axis of heaviest snow. You talk as though it should be further East which would benefit central NC more. Which one looks more likely in this type of scenario?
 
1300m said:
Should be a widespread area of moderate to heavy snow with that H5 solution, like the GFS depicted. We'll see if the EPS doesn't tick up again for much of the state.
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Yeah, I was going to say the GFS just seemed to have a wider area covered with the higher totals.
 
ForsythSnow said:
40 of those frames have snow here, and it's the correct time frame as well! I'm going to jump aboard this train, but I have a fear that those models with a sharp cutoff around here is a possibility. Those warm noses are pains.
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No . We need you off the train it's bringing good luck . Keep taking about dry air until Monday please

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