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Pattern Jarring January

Tarheel1 said:
Brick says the 8-10th storm, is going to be a home run!
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GEFS still trying to keep the upper trough off the coast of California, if it follows the EPS and pushes into the southwestern US we're going to probably have a storm, question will be exactly how much cold air we have to work with, given how persistent this vortex has been over the Great Lakes/SE Canada and the deep snowcover to our north, odds are pretty good we'll be at least marginal. Need at least a few more days to figure out the evolution of the trough off of California as that will be key in determining whether a big threat for the entire board actually shows up down the road. This winter is definitely reminding me a lot of 2013-14 where modeled warmth kept showing up in the long range, only to get kicked down the road and we eventually ended up w/ several big events later on in the winter
 
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I know I asked for a nice shortwave to crash into California to give us at least some precip but holy crap wasn't expecting this from the GFS. I'm sure there's likely some convective feedback problems here and it's 9 days out so take it for what it's worth, but in any case, a 987 hPa subtropical low is a rarity off southern California aside from big El Nino winters w/ a very stout subtropical jet.
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Webberweather53 said:
I know I asked for a nice shortwave to crash into California to give us at least some precip but holy crap wasn't expecting this from the GFS. I'm sure there's likely some convective feedback problems here and it's 9 days out so take it for what it's worth, but in any case, a 987 hPa subtropical low is a rarity off southern California aside from big El Nino winters w/ a very stout subtropical jet.
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This Winter is trying to defy what we define as La Nina.
 
This is just...ouch
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Let us Pray....Cool pic of GA TECH campus on December 9th..Hope we can ALL see this soon....Oh, of course before ground temps and sun angle become an issue, LOL...HAPPY NEW YEAR, hope it is banging for all,,,,,

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Looks like a pretty cold and boring first few weeks of Jan. Since there is no threat for snow for a while, I may just go back to hibernation.
 
Gonna need it to relax or change to even get a chance of wintry precip up my way. At least its cold but hate wasting it with no snow around.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol those brutal gfs and cmc cold runs from a few days are a distant memory now


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Huh...I guess we differ to what cold is in the deep South esp. minus snow cover temperatures for highs I the 20's to mid 30's at best and lows in the teens and even single digits pretty cold for central AL...far north AL highs in the low 20's and lows in the single digits (near 0 in some areas)... To boot wind chills below zero at times... Pretty f'ing cold for this area
 
RollTide18 said:
Aside from the ZR on here, severe setup?

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Bet you want see a SE trend with that storm. That must be Erics California Wave. I'll complain about timing of rain, but not the rain itself. Getting drier by the day.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol those brutal gfs and cmc cold runs from a few days are a distant memory now


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Not a bad thing. I mean, is it really worth the heating cost, static guard cost, and overall horrible feeling conditions? Euro has CAE in the mid 60's next week with 0.8 inches of QPF... of course.
 
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