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Pattern Jarring January

Anybody want to interpret the UKMET?
GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
 
Let's get that low a little closer, if not right on, the coast and get some snow to the deprived areas just south and east of I85
 
packfan98 said:
Anybody want to interpret the UKMET?
GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
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Not to dissimilar to the GFS except it may have the trough axis a touch west... with 24 hr panels not sure if it had a slp in there or not, looks like it would and maybe close to the coast?

GFS for comparison

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CMC was a wiff fwiw...it tried but trough positive longer, too late with development

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dsaur said:
That's a lot of zr. Was there much damage? Hopefully just slippery fun. And falling ice :)
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Tony,
Very little damage but it was headed there. I roughly estimate that there was as much as 0.25" of ice buildup on some limbs from the up to 0.50" of ZR. Power was starting to go in a few areas when it finally transitioned to sleet.
 
Here's the statewide minimum temperature map for east-central NC during the recent arctic outbreak. Most areas east of the mountains observed temps well into the single digits on the morning of the 7th, with temps nearly reaching -10F in the northern coastal plain.
January 6-7 2018 NC Minimum Temperatures.png
 
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Also something to maybe keep an eye on. Models are keeping a LP left behind from the big Tennessee storm this weekend and CMC has moved it 250 miles back towards the east coast of Florida in 1 run. Something to keep an eye on


I made this comment on Tuesday. Where's my gold star? And Met offices hiring lol
 
GaWx said:
12Z GFS: Note that big Arctic high coming down day 10. That's a new development.
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New Arctic high supported by the 12Z GEFS to reach the SE 1/22. If so, that means warmup lasts no more than 2 days. Based on this, I don't think it would be premature to increase discussions on how cold this month is liable to turn out vs past cold Januaries. I'm already wondering if it will challenge 2014, which was the coldest January in KATL (6.3 colder than normal) and other areas since 1985! No, it won't be as cold as 1940 or 1977. But a top 10 percentile cold January is becoming more and more possible.
 
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GaWx said:
New Arctic high supported by the 12Z GEFS to reach the SE 1/22. If so, that means warmup lasts no more than 2 days. Based on this, I don't think it would be premature to increase discussions on how cold this month is liable to turn out vs past cold Januaries. I'm already wondering if it will challenge 2014, which was the coldest January in KATL (6.3 colder than normal) and other areas since 1985! No, it won't be as cold as 1940 or 1977. But a top 10 percentile January is becoming more and more possible.
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It would funny to cap it off with a cold 2-4" snow next week.

It hasn't reached 2014 here yet, but a strong cold wave with snow cover would put it pretty close.
 
If we manage to slow down a system and let it grab some gulf moisture many will be in the game with all the cold air around. The AO is more than likely going to be -3 or lower by next week as well. We sure are making up for the last 2 winters!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
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Also something to maybe keep an eye on. Models are keeping a LP left behind from the big Tennessee storm this weekend and CMC has moved it 250 miles back towards the east coast of Florida in 1 run. Something to keep an eye on


I made this comment on Tuesday. Where's my gold star? And Met offices hiring lol
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What could this imply for us here in the Carolinas?
 
Any analogs where a clipper dropped down and tapped gulf moisture and also phased with a coastal?
 
packfan98 said:
@Shawn, can we get the live thread add on?
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I turned it on . We will see how it does with the chat running as well. We are in the process of s massive upgrade. Once complete we will be able to run every t ing we want. So we will see how live thread does. If it lags I'll turn it off until we turn off the live chat
 
Storm5 said:
I turned it on . We will see how it does with the chat running as well. We are in the process of s massive upgrade. Once complete we will be able to run every t ing we want. So we will see how live thread does. If it lags I'll turn it off until we turn off the live chat
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Thanks! It's so helpful during model runs, especially the Euro.
 
The winter of 2017/2018 already has made some great history from a winter lovers perspective across the SE. Saw a post reading through everything and I dont want to rehash/document all the events up until this point. I just want to call attention to the increasing possibility that this winter could end up being one we reference back to for years to come. All we need is 1 to 2 more decent hits in the right spot and just about everyone on this board will end up above to much above normal climo wise for snowfall. Couple that with the cold(guranteed BN for RDU (Nov,Dec,Jan) we start getting into the wowza territory. Im rooting for FEB and March to end up BN. I would never in my lifetime thought Id see RDU run BN Nov-March no matter what the pattern. Just food for thought and definitely putting the cart before the hoarse here, but its doable no doubt.
 
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