• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jarring January

Webberweather53 said:
Really hope this verifies in 8-9 days w/ a s/w bulldozing into south-central California and an intense vortex hanging tough in SE Canada and New England. If nothing else, many of us may finally get some precipitation, we're going into a moderate drought in central NC, and we need any rain/snow we can get....
View attachment 2418
Click to expand...
That my friends, is a classic split-flow. Could not have drawn it any better.
 
We can work this is if anything remotely close to what the Operational Euro, CMC, Euro control, and EPS verifies, at the very least many of us would at least get some welcome and much needed precipitation

eps_z500a_c_conus_35.png
eps_z500a_conus_35.png eps_t850a_conus_35.png
 
FWIW the eps likes the day 9/10 euro system to slowly slide east through the plains towards the SE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
FWIW the eps likes the day 9/10 euro system to slowly slide east through the plains towards the SE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It ain’t worth much with how things have played out lately. While it would be a different setup I’m betting on nothing more then rain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
FWIW the eps likes the day 9/10 euro system to slowly slide east through the plains towards the SE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I still think we will have a nice boardwide event before the winter is over. I just hate we took a step back it seems like.
 
The control in general looks good w/ a beastly 1044 over Washington DC, we just have to hope this s/w doesn't decide to camp out over Baja and Desert southwest or all is lost. Of course I'll be leaving for Austin on the 5th for the AMS conference so it would be my luck to miss a big dog
eps_slp_c_east_41.png
 
gefs_ptype_se_192.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The control in general looks good w/ a beastly 1044 over Washington DC, we just have to hope this s/w doesn't decide to camp out over Baja and Desert southwest or all is lost. Of course I'll be leaving for Austin on the 5th for the AMS conference
Click to expand...
WeatherLC said:
Thought you were in new mexico?
Click to expand...
i am from Ambequerque yes. Currently I stay at Capstone. I was in Bates house but it was not very nice
 
As was alluded above about the period going forward with the EURO, a nice Snowpack to our Northwest in the Midwest is also modeled. I'm hyped at what's coming. A much better pattern for the entire Southeast than what we currently are going through.

IMG_3337.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Encouraging news if you wanted this winter to keep on chugging after mid January, maybe this year will be one of the few, rare exceptions that have a normal or BN February despite the ongoing NINA. That would be nice.

View attachment 2434
Click to expand...

The #1 reason this winter has refused to turn torchy is the big vortex over NE Siberia brought about in part by stronger bgd Indian Ocean forcing and an extensive Siberian snow cover helping to anchor a persist, and very resilient ridge over the Northeastern Pacific and Alaska which continues to flood North America with Siberian air... The extensive snowpack and long-term changes in tropical forcing are 2 big factors not accounted for by classical NINA analogs even if you bin for other phenomena like the EQBO, solar, etc... I certainly will not complain at all.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Encouraging news if you wanted this winter to keep on chugging after mid January, maybe this year will be one of the few, rare exceptions that have a normal or BN February despite the ongoing NINA. That would be nice.

View attachment 2434
Click to expand...
Seems like the January blowtorch some were hyping, is a no go!
 
If we could just get a -NAO in there somewhere...or an active STJ.
 
I'm not going to call this "historic," because I really do not know. But for my area in NW tennessee, I wonder how long it's been since we have 150+ consecutive hours at or below freezing? That's the forecast, per NWS MEG. Pretty amazing for a southern state with no frozen precipitation on the ground.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top