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Pattern Jarring January

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_18.png
Here comes my snow lol
 
Only 5 days out, too. I really like the chances more when we see systems like this that develop slowly on the models instead of when they show a big storm 7 to 10 days out.
 
This is what makes these sort of patterns fun. You got nothing but dry and cold air with nothing showing then all of a sudden the models throw a storm in there. This will be fun to watch. Hr 120 is looking good for my particular area.
 
Very nice improvement/trend on the GFS. Looks like moisture for this system will not be a problem but again with this type of system it will be boom or bust.


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The EPS is an utter joke after day 5-6 right now, checking the trend in 0z runs even against yesterday, the trough in the medium range which is associated w/ this threat for wintry weather has continued to strengthen as verification nears and is far cry from a massive ridge it was showing only 3 days ago for the same time frame. Give this another 2 days or so because the solutions even out to day 5 aren't particularly stable... Another ridge is showing up on the EPS at day 10, it probably won't verify either given there's a big ACWB event fixing to transpire over the Bering Sea & GOA coupled w/ a trough near Hawaii and north Atlantic blocking, all of which don't favor ridging along the eastern seaboard... At the very least if there is going to be a ridge here it will be transient at best
ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png
 
Does it look like a low was tryimg to form in the northern gulf? Just was wondering
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS is an utter joke after day 5-6 right now, checking the trend in 0z runs even against yesterday, the trough in the medium range which is associated w/ this threat for wintry weather has continued to strengthen as verification nears and is far cry from a massive ridge it was showing only 3 days ago for the same time frame. Give this another 2 days or so because the solutions even out to day 5 aren't particularly stable... Another ridge is showing up on the EPS at day 10, it probably won't verify either given there's a big ACWB event fixing to transpire over the Bering Sea & GOA coupled w/ a trough near Hawaii and north Atlantic blocking, all of which don't favor ridging along the eastern seaboard... At the very least if there is going to be a ridge here it will be transient at best
View attachment 2746
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Well, "King of 500MB", it seems you have fallen from your throne. Thanks for the update Webber! It's weird to see such a model that did so well become such a laugh. It's bad though because we don't have any good LR models to trust now.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Just my weenie thinking i really think that the moisture will fill up on NGA and NAL better than GFS showed
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According to a met on other board , cold push is modeled to strong, and moisture would be rain se of ATL to CLT
 
Tarheel1 said:
According to a met on other board , cold push is modeled to strong, and moisture would be rain se of ATL to CLT
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Well, then that met thinks all of the models are out to lunch to be honest. The Euro suite has been even colder than the GFS if I'm remembering correctly.

Edit: The GFS seems like it's caved but for a while it was warmer.
 
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