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Pattern Jarring January

Anybody want to interpret the UKMET?
GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
 
Let's get that low a little closer, if not right on, the coast and get some snow to the deprived areas just south and east of I85
 
packfan98 said:
Anybody want to interpret the UKMET?
GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
Click to expand...
Not to dissimilar to the GFS except it may have the trough axis a touch west... with 24 hr panels not sure if it had a slp in there or not, looks like it would and maybe close to the coast?

GFS for comparison

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
ce5933473b184a90c64a57c65e586a52.jpg
 
dsaur said:
That's a lot of zr. Was there much damage? Hopefully just slippery fun. And falling ice :)
Click to expand...

Tony,
Very little damage but it was headed there. I roughly estimate that there was as much as 0.25" of ice buildup on some limbs from the up to 0.50" of ZR. Power was starting to go in a few areas when it finally transitioned to sleet.
 
Here's the statewide minimum temperature map for east-central NC during the recent arctic outbreak. Most areas east of the mountains observed temps well into the single digits on the morning of the 7th, with temps nearly reaching -10F in the northern coastal plain.
January 6-7 2018 NC Minimum Temperatures.png
 
image-png.2667
image-png.2666
Also something to maybe keep an eye on. Models are keeping a LP left behind from the big Tennessee storm this weekend and CMC has moved it 250 miles back towards the east coast of Florida in 1 run. Something to keep an eye on


I made this comment on Tuesday. Where's my gold star? And Met offices hiring lol
 
GaWx said:
12Z GFS: Note that big Arctic high coming down day 10. That's a new development.
Click to expand...

New Arctic high supported by the 12Z GEFS to reach the SE 1/22. If so, that means warmup lasts no more than 2 days. Based on this, I don't think it would be premature to increase discussions on how cold this month is liable to turn out vs past cold Januaries. I'm already wondering if it will challenge 2014, which was the coldest January in KATL (6.3 colder than normal) and other areas since 1985! No, it won't be as cold as 1940 or 1977. But a top 10 percentile cold January is becoming more and more possible.
 
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