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Pattern Jarring January

Stormlover said:
Wow, almost all of this in ala is tue/wed
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Glad I am not in the sweet spot...NW trend..lol...yeah I did it.
 
Amazing how Euro keeps spitting out snowy solutions the past few days but nada for the GFS. Hope it is just it’s bias in play
 
GFS is trying it's just too late, something to watch over next few days anyway.
Last 4 GFS
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Clippers stress me out. This thing can go poof in one run. I’d like to see support on the GFS (there’s some on individual ensembles but overall the energy is too far NE), also I don’t believe the snow will be that far west as the 00z Euro snowfall map shows. Tons of questions need to be answered for this one.


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Here's what BMX said about it

There has
been a shift in operational and ensemble guidance toward more
moisture along the Arctic front on Tuesday. 20 percent POPs have
been added back to our forecast, all in the form of light snow,
affecting potentially the entire forecast area. We will have to
watch this situation very closely due to the prospect of snow
falling with temperatures well into the 20s The strong cold
advection is likely to send temperatures plunging into the teens
and maybe even the single digits on Wednesday morning with
sustained winds around 10 mph. This would push wind chill values
to near and possibly below zero across the entire area. Another
cold night is expected on Wednesday night into Thursday with more
lows in the teens and lower 20s.
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20% chance of all snow and only snow, don't see that often lol
 
1300m said:
06z NAVGEM also digs the shortwave similar to the Euro and is a very nice hit.

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I had a feeling we'd start seeing some nice maps pop up during this period. Hopefully, we can start to see a bit more agreement. I don't hate the setup entirely.
 
1300m said:
I love the Euro setup, but I was most concerned at how much further southwest it was with the digging but most guidance is trending that direction now. Regardless of how it turns out, I'd say this one has potential and kudos to you for being first to really jump on it!
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Thanks! I'd just be happy scoring more than a few flakes. It would be nice to see a coastal develop sooner and a bit farther to the south and sling some moisture back this way. We're probably going to have to mainly work with the clipper, though. Anyway, it gives us something to watch, which is all we can ask for at this point.
 
1300m said:
I love the Euro setup, but I was most concerned at how much further southwest it was with the digging but most guidance is trending that direction now. Regardless of how it turns out, I'd say this one has potential and kudos to you for being first to really jump on it!
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Your right gonna be a fine line we are walking with that. All or nada. Again. Lmao
 
Like the last one, looks like the Triad will be a little too far West but does look good for the Triangle
 
Rain Cold said:
I had a feeling we'd start seeing some nice maps pop up during this period. Hopefully, we can start to see a bit more agreement. I don't hate the setup entirely.
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Well the good thing about these clippers is you know it's not going to bust with rain when precipitation is coming from the snow side of the 540 line
 
Wow, love how things look now with the Euro. Hope it keeps trending that way and the other models fall in place. This is exactly what I was talking about a few days ago - watch out about a week later when we have a big warm up in winter here.
 
Spann:

NEXT WEEK: An “Alberta Clipper” will drop in here Tuesday, pulling down even colder air, and potentially bringing a few snow flakes to the state. Traditionally, clippers are starved for moisture and don’t produce much in the way of wintry precipitation. We do note the European global model is a bit aggressive and suggests some chance of accumulating snow over North Alabama, but for now we will discount that solution and just mention a chance of snow flurries Tuesday. We will have plenty of time to watch model trends over the weekend and make adjustments if needed.
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Well the good thing about these clippers is you know it's not going to bust with rain when precipitation is coming from the snow side of the 540 line
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That's true. Clippers are usually a bust, but when they produce appreciable precip, they're usually a lot of fun...and clean, as you say, in terms of getting snow vs. other slop.
 
Any chance this energy could close off at the base of the trough? Looked like Euro was close to that, although probably just my optimism imagining it.
 
1300m said:
No doubt, the euro is a super clipper. I mean it goes neutral tilt near the MS/AL border.
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Can it possibly tap gulf moisture ?
 
1300m said:
No doubt, the euro is a super clipper. I mean it goes neutral tilt near the MS/AL border.
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That's much different than what we were talking about yesterday. I'm getting sucked in just like I'm getting sucked in to NC state basketball
 
Jon said:
Clippers stress me out. This thing can go poof in one run. I’d like to see support on the GFS (there’s some on individual ensembles but overall the energy is too far NE), also I don’t believe the snow will be that far west as the 00z Euro snowfall map shows. Tons of questions need to be answered for this one.


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Sorry I’m from Atlanta. What is a clipper??

Those suckers just die in the mountains.


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ATLwxfan said:
Sorry I’m from Atlanta. What is a clipper??

Those suckers just die in the mountains.


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I remember one - and only one. Circa 1977. We got about 2-3 inches and it was so cold and windy, and the snow so dry, we stayed out and played for about four minutes and then went back inside!
 
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