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Pattern Jarring January

Storm5 said:
The gefs still likes the idea of a system next Thursday and Friday
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So what would be on the table? App runner? Late bloomer? Southern slider?
 
Storm5 said:
Can the models be bad ? Yes, but they are just one tool used to make a forecast . I think In the southeast it's the unrealistic expectations that make it seem like the models are busting all the time when in reality it's people forgetting we live in the southeast . Let's be real winter weather is rare in the southeast and SOOOO many thing have to come together for systems to work out. I think people see systems on the models and just assume it's logical without really understanding how the model got to thst conclusion in the first . Many times you can look at 500mb and then the surface output and realize the two don't match up. But i think it all starts with the unrealistic expectations
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Well, you're right. When I look at a model I assume it has the right idea and I go with it. You would think they would perform better but then again we know it's rare, so I guess that's why we try to bank on individual systems. I mean look where we are now. The cold air won't be a problem but we can't even get the moisture with it! Do we suck that much in the southeast? I think that what's making us so desperate. We got all this cold air for nothing and as SOON as it moderates then we get moisture as rain. Like really?! That's pathetic. That's why I'm sceptical of the Euro holding the cold on long enough because it seems we are always so close and yet so far. The southeast will forever be the ban of snow lovers I guess but it's not like we can move north.
 
Storm5 said:
Sure it happens everywhere but again , winter weather isn't that common in the southeast so expectations are crazy unrealistic down here . Up there they are happy when systems bust . I lived in Michigan for 4 years . People love it when systems bust

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Ok, can I ask what are your expectations in regards to winter weather? I mean 1-3 inches of snow may be good, but to me it seems like some are overdue for 6+. I mean come on. With gulf moisture and cold air 6+ inches down here shouldn't be to much to ask. Yet we can hardly get an inch sometimes. I wish we could have storms like 1936, 1940, etc. Again. Yet even that seems like a once in a lifetime and out of our reach.
 
1300m said:
It goes back to the fundamental equations of meteorology. In order to get vertical motion (and resultantly precipitation) you have to have warm air advection. You can have all the cold you want, but if you don't get some warm air advection you will never get any rising air that ultimately results in wintry weather. Unfortunately, living in the south we are usually near the boundary of the cold air masses. As the cold erodes, we get precipitation. It's the way meteorology works.
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That's why I hate the bitter cold air like we had last week, because it usually means cold and dry. In fact, it was so dry it hurt us getting more snow here than we could have once the precip moved in. If we are around 28 to 30 degrees, that seems to be when we have a good shot and more significant snow here.
 
People tend to treat modeling as what will happen versus using it as a tool to help make a forecast. Thats where the biggest problem lies. Modeling needs to be looked at with an educated mind, of sorts. This is why we pushed for so many to look along at 500mb with us with the last East coast threat to learn.

You don't need a meteorology degree to learn the basics, but learning to use all of the maps, especially 500mb, over just the surface depiction/ptype maps is key.
 
Shawn said:
People tend to treat modeling as what will happen versus using it as a tool to help make a forecast. Thats where the biggest problem lies.
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Correct. Most of us aren't educated or experienced enough to take that information and make a forecast.
 
12Z Euro: stupid cold showing again 1/17-18 though not quite as cold some areas like ATL but colder in others like RAH
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: stupid cold showing again 1/17-18 though not quite as cold some areas liek atl but colder in others like RAH
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Sounds like it might be more like the last EPS then with the core of the cold in NC and the midatlantic?
 
Euro is likely to have a small chance at Wintry precip, then a much bigger towards the end of the run.

Edit* temps poop out.
 
Storm5 said:
Jb is all in on an east coast storm late next week

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It's not a bad idea. But you have to lean toward it being a clipper Miller b where the primary clipper transfers energy to a developing low off of the VA capes. Hard to get excited about much more than flurries south of the mason Dixon

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Storm5 said:
Beastly cutoff
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Nice to see this look and good see all three global models have it. A little to warm for now but let’s see where we are in a few days with this system.


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whatalife said:
Nice to see this look and good see all three global models have it. A little to warmer for now but let’s see where we are in a few days with this system.


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Im more inclined to think that is correct with the warmth. I don't see a good deal of potential with this. I mean it's not like it'll get back cold when the system comes because we all know the warmth eventually wins out it seems when moisture comes back. So
 
Clayton Reid said:
Im more inclined to think that is correct with the warmth. I don't see a good deal of potential with this. I mean it's not like it'll get back cold when the system comes because we all know the warmth eventually wins out it seems when moisture comes back. So
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It's not really warm . We are talking a few degrees

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Storm5 said:
It's not really warm . We are talking a few degrees

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I mean verbatim that storm has rain all the way back to Nashville, Tn. I doubt it'll trend back cold for that system. It looks more like another so close but too late system to me.
 
12Z Euro: KATL's coldest still down to 14 F 9vs the 0Z Euro's 12 F) on 1/17 during strong cold air advection. On 1/18, the cold is radiative meaning KATL won't be nearly as cold but places that radiate well would be down into the mid to upper teens again per the run.
 
Clayton Reid said:
I mean verbatim that storm has rain all the way back to Nashville, Tn. I doubt it'll trend back cold for that system. It looks more like another so close but too late system to me.
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It's a different setup in the NE vs previous system . We finally have a backed up flow, or should I say a much slower flow vs the progressive B.S. we've been dealing with. Could turn out to be nothing but there is potential

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