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Pattern Jarring January

BPATL said:
One thing to note, IS that they measure in the middle of a runway median only at the BUSIEST AIRPORT IN THE WORLD, very stupid...many many parts of ATL in the city limits had 6 in or more Dec 8th, and years before as well. The airport has a massive heat island effect so thier measurement readings are never accurate.
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Oh, I never knew that! I always assumed it's been a while since ATL had 6+ inches. But yeah I heard there was 10+ inches of snow in downtown Atlanta in the January 1940 storm where the airport reported 8.3 inches. So yeah that does have some merit it seems. I'll keep that in mind. It would be nice if I actually got 6 inches in my backyard tho haha.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Hey Larry. I recall you telling me that ATL got a foot of snow in one month before if I remember correctly. When was the month and year of this occurrence? Also, when was the ATL's snowiest season/year on record and how many inches? Thanks.
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They got about a foot (I think it was at or near 11.5" but I don't have the info with me right now) in 2/1895 at the official measuring station, which was then downtown, from three different storms, including 2 major snows just a few days apart!

The most seasonal total SN/IP on record is I believe either 1894-5 or 1884-5, both of which got near a foot. Not far behind are 1898-9, 1935-6, and 1982-3.
 
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18z GEFS is picking up on something for the middle of next week that wasn't there at 12z. It probably is just one member that is skewing the mean. Seems to have some cold temps around for the majority of the 16 days too.
snod.conus.png
 
packfan98 said:
18z GEFS is picking up on something for the middle of next week that wasn't there at 12z. It probably is just one member that is skewing the mean. Seems to have some cold temps around for the majority of the 16 days too.
snod.conus.png
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Probably reacting to this. Not a bad look honestly
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Mr. Grinch said:
Probably reacting to this. Not a bad look honestly
152686252af30593d255cbe61a412974.jpg


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I hope that's not a clipper, I mean you NC folk can get a few inches on rare occasions, but upstate/midlands SC snow drought would continue !
 
packfan98 said:
18z GEFS is picking up on something for the middle of next week that wasn't there at 12z. It probably is just one member that is skewing the mean. Seems to have some cold temps around for the majority of the 16 days too.
snod.conus.png
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E1 is the main member that has a major winter storm.


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Peering down the tunnel ...

There are so many other factors in play, but looking at the two major indices that have seemed to dominate ...

Screen Shot 2018-01-10 at 8.00.04 PM.png
Screen Shot 2018-01-10 at 8.00.26 PM.png

and with the MJO hanging a hard right,

How can anyone argue with ...

814temp.new.gif
 
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MichaelJ said:
What model is this? EURO looks different than this
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Here's the source ... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/
Look - I'm just sharing a thought and an observation ... not trying to start an argument or for that matter a discussion. Just posted something to think about. Or it seemed so ... :oops:
Now, I have to crash ... day job thing ... :confused:
 
We all knew that we were going to get moderation compared to how major the early month cold snap was. The question after that will be if we are able to get what the long range says we might see.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
We all knew that we were going to get moderation compared to how major the early month cold snap was. The question after that will be if we are able to get what the long range says we might see.
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I was only going out 16 days - not real long range ... indices support a warm up after the 17th of this month. Beyond that, I personally have no Magic 8 Ball.
Now, crash time ... ;)
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Not really. The PNA does go down into the negative range in the LR, but notice it keeps getting further and further away each run.
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Kind of an erratic pattern shown there, but we generally want a +PNA and a -AO for the SE correct? Phil is right that we will most likely moderate until the end of January but lot of differing opinions from people on the month of Feb. Time will tell.
 
MichaelJ said:
Kind of an erratic pattern shown there, but we generally want a +PNA and a -AO for the SE correct? Phil is right that we will most likely moderate until the end of January but lot of differing opinions from people on the month of Feb. Time will tell.
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Yes. The +PNA and -AO are the two indices with the highest correlation to cold for much of the SE US.
 
GaWx said:
The ~0.50" of ZR and ~0.25" of sleet was an incredible base for the 2" of snow that SAV received on top of it all last week. As long as it stayed cold (highs in 40s and lows in 20s), the snow in shaded areas hardly melted! It became like little glaciers.
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That's a lot of zr. Was there much damage? Hopefully just slippery fun. And falling ice :)
 
Short wave is basically non existent on the GFS for that next system. That High/Northern Branch is going to absolutely crush anything that can get going in that timeframe.
 
Need a s/w entering Southern California to stay unaffected by the northern stream while, at the same time, temps are cooperating

I feel this is my only recipe for a solid snow event
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Need a s/w entering Southern California to stay unaffected by the northern stream while, at the same time, temps are cooperating

I feel this is my only recipe for a solid snow event
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And that sir, is why we get more chances in an El Nino! More active Southern Stream!
 
Shawn said:
And that sir, is why we get more chances in an El Nino! More active Southern Stream!
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When you say "we" are you referring to Central SC ? Because it seems like there have been way more chances for snow for the SE as a whole compared to a normal winter.
 
Arcc said:
No way you get a cutter with big Bertha sitting over the NE. No way you get a storm with her there either.
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Maybe my terminology wasn't right but that sw looks like it enters OR/WA and rides the Canadian border grabbing our moisture out of the gulf causing it to cut. Or maybe the two are phasing and it's not necessarily cutting. Idk i'm no met
 
SoutheastRidge said:
When you say "we" are you referring to Central SC ? Because it seems like there have been way more chances for snow for the SE as a whole compared to a normal winter.
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I mean, right now the Northern stream is dominate and it's *supposed to be* mild and dry; but we had a raging -EPO that wouldn't let go; finally looking to let go. There are always extremes.

Looks like even further on this run of the GFS the Pacific is going to flood into the continental usa and well, ew.
 
Im going to go out on a limb and say no one in the south gets snow from that look on the 19th. The rain/snow map is deceiving. We are nowhere close st H5
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Im going to go out on a limb and say no one in the south gets snow from that look on the 19th. The rain/snow map is deceiving. We are nowhere close st H5
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Residual cold air lingering at onset, but I agree overall; it'd be a big fat nothing. We are going to be waiting for a while; guys. Enjoy the warmth the next couple of days and lets see what we can get into Feb.
 
The gfs has me below freezing for 5 of 6 days staring Friday when temps go below 32. The one day it shows me above freezing during this period is Monday and only by 3-4 degrees. I was literally below freezing 7 straight days minus 2 hours during this last stretch and even then I only got up to 32.9. All the lakes still had ice on them today even though we haven’t been below freezing since Sunday morning. It will be pretty amazing if I get another 6 day stretch of below freezing temps starting not even one week later after the last one.

Edit: I want to add that this post was not an attempt to argue with anyone who is talking of a possible warm up later this month. I just thought it was pretty amazing that I could have two such streaks in one winter let alone month.
 
Please don't buy the silly 0Z Doc SE snow for 1/19-20. It is pure entertainment that far out and it is a highly unusual solution to say the least. I'd even buy the 1/17-18 stupid cold over this craziness.
 
Well Euro's cold would be colder for most areas than the last cold snap if it were to verify. At least in many locations.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS says that the 0Z Doc's stupid cold may be not be a stupid idea as it says it may be legit.
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Bahaha, it has minimum temps 32F or lower in the 70-100%. Whew! OP isn't crazy. From these low resolution maps, looks like some are down right frigid, colder than the last event by a large margin.

This is coming just because Larry mentioned torching and warm temperatures recently.
 
If the Euro and EPS cold do verify, there is a chance there is a SE snow at least between 1/14-1/20 if the northern stream doesn't completely crush it like it has this year. Just trying to be hopeful. If you keep getting cold over and over, eventually moisture will meet up at the right time. It happens everywhere, even in the SE. @GaWx @Shawn
 
Shawn said:
Bahaha, it has minimum temps 32F or lower in the 70-100%. Whew! OP isn't crazy. From these low resolution maps, looks like some are down right frigid, colder than the last event by a large margin.

This is coming just because Larry mentioned torching and warm temperatures recently.
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The morning AFD from FFC mentions that this cold will likely be stronger and last longer than the last.. I can t remember two prolonged cold snaps so close together
 
gawxnative said:
The morning AFD from FFC mentions that this cold will likely be stronger and last longer than the last.. I can t remember two prolonged cold snaps so close together
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It's not possible to have 2 record breaking , once every 30 year , cold snaps in one winter! Can't happen! Somebody said so! ;)
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS says that the 0Z Doc's stupid cold may be not be a stupid idea as it says it may be legit.
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This puzzles me. I see how we warm up, pattern wise, but for some reason ( I think Pacific) is driving the pattern and it just can't sustain the widespread warmth for long. What an interesting winter so far
 
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