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Pattern Jarring January

Storm5 said:
Can still easily get a system around New Years. In fact I’m a little more optimistic now after seeing the changes on the 00z euro
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Just saw what you posted and I agree. If the energy looks better at 12z, or even has a storm, it could mean a storm before the cold. Would be funny if we get that one and then another 5 or so days later.
 
Storm5 said:
00z euro has the wave in NW and sends it over the top of the ridge which is a change and it’s what the gfs has been doing all along . Didn’t dig the wave and it was absorbed into the northern stream. Huge improvement vs previous runs
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Yay instead of sunny and cold we will get partly cloudy and colder

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Rain Cold said:
The CFS for January looks like hot garbage though. How do the Weeklies look? Haven’t seen any posts about them, so I assume they still look like trash too.
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The weeklies are a dumpster fire after the first week of January, the big ridge over NE Eurasia shuts off the wave activity flux on the polar vortex and it strengthens a lot over the next week or two, with a trough dropping into Alaska and down the Rockies
 
Webberweather53 said:
The weeklies are a dumpster fire after the first week of January, the big ridge over NE Eurasia shuts off the wave activity flux on the polar vortex and it strengthens a lot over the next week or two, with a trough dropping into Alaska and down the Rockies
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Thanks. That sucks, but it’s what I figured. I’m going to guess they start changing their tune a bit by next Monday.
 
Storm5 said:
00z euro has the wave in NW and sends it over the top of the ridge which is a change and it’s what the gfs has been doing all along . Didn’t dig the wave and it was absorbed into the northern stream. Huge improvement vs previous runs
2c346d3f325fd20a930a9dcb815e4a72.jpg
773d8c3de383efe099681e8caf73f95f.jpg
f6a0a814ac54088c0532c44afe217cdf.jpg



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No doubt that's a huge improvement and as much as I hate to say it the long range NAM got it right for once... Would just be really nice if we could take one of these big shortwaves and bulldoze it into south-central California so we can start to kick up some west-southwesterly flow aloft and tap into the rich moisture that's still lingering over the eastern Pacific. At least this shortwave doesn't look like a strung out turd like the one for the 28-29th did before it reached the Rockies
 
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Rain Cold said:
Thanks. That sucks, but it’s what I figured. I’m going to guess they start changing their tune a bit by next Monday.
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As strange as it seems this has been on the weeklies for the past several runs so it has a lot of momentum, I guess if we can get the arctic air to stick around a little longer or get the trough to cut off and slide underneath the blocking high over eastern Canada we could avert/temporarily stall the dumpster fire that's eventually awaiting us
 
Webberweather53 said:
As strange as it seems this has been on the weeklies for the past several runs so it has a lot of momentum, I guess if we can get the arctic air to stick around a little longer or get the trough to cut off and slide underneath the blocking high over eastern Canada we could avert/temporarily stall the dumpster fire that's eventually awaiting us
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Yep, the Weeklies have been rock solid on this idea. Hopefully, should it occur, it can be somewhat transitory.
 
I think parts of central Georgia over the nxt week or two will be able to yank out at least some wintry precip maybe not much but a little
 
Webberweather53 said:
As strange as it seems this has been on the weeklies for the past several runs so it has a lot of momentum, I guess if we can get the arctic air to stick around a little longer or get the trough to cut off and slide underneath the blocking high over eastern Canada we could avert/temporarily stall the dumpster fire that's eventually awaiting us
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The Euro does show the MJO going through phase 2 into 3 but the super warm 4,5,6 don't appear to be coming soon at least at present. Phase 3 is definitely warmer so a milder pattern appears to be coming but not a torch
 
Well if there is going to be a nw trend we’re in a good spot right now.


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For here in SE GA and nearby far S SC, there has been no period even remotely as promising for rare significant wintry precip POTENTIAL as the next week since 12/1989 and 1/1977. This next week has the makings of a once in several decade wintry period and it may not even be all from just one system. There is still the threat of at least a small amount of ZR between tomorrow afternoon and Fri AM. And then there is a threat of just about anything including a very rare accumulating snow chance for near or just after New Year's. Even Phil is not at all out of the game for next week! How often can that be said?

By the way, weak MJO left side of circle ftw as regards a cold SE!
 
1300m said:
This. The 00Z Euro just took a pretty significant step towards the GFS solution. The Euro is not locked in, and this is definitely still in play. I may sound like I am a snow weenie and always optimistic, but anyone who remembers me from last time knows that is definitely not the case lol.
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Oh we remember lol . Will be interesting to see which way the 12z runs go
 
GaWx said:
For here in SE GA and nearby far S SC, there has been no period even remotely as promising for rare significant wintry precip POTENTIAL as the next week since 12/1989 and 1/1977. This next week has the makings of a once in several decade wintry period and it may not even be all from just one system. There is still the threat of at least a small amount of ZR between tomorrow afternoon and Fri AM. And then there is a threat of just about anything including a very rare accumulating snow chance for near or just after New Year's. Even Phil is not at all out of the game for next week! How often can that be said?

By the way, weak MJO left side of circle ftw as regards a cold SE!
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Every 25 years or so, more or less ...
 
FWIW the 12z nam looks like it’s headed for squash city as the wave in the NW has very little separation and looks like the northern stream was gonna eat it up


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Hahah well then at 84 it has stream separation but it still looks flatter vs previous gfs runs
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