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Pattern Jarring January

GaWx said:
Yes, indeed, the warmth this week is, if anything, overperforming.
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I'll certainly take it. I'm interested in the extended. The safe money is on warm but there is an open window for cold to sneak in

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Just to give you an indication how long lasting this cold spell has been. Chattanooga has been below 50 degrees (the normal high for this time of year) since Dec 23. 8 total days below 40. 6 nights in the teens, 15 consecutive nights below freezing. 12 was the official lowest temp.
 
whamby said:
Just to give you an indication how long lasting this cold spell has been. Chattanooga has been below 50 degrees (the normal high for this time of year) since Dec 23. 8 total days below 40. 6 nights in the teens, 15 consecutive nights below freezing. 12 was the official lowest temp.
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Impressive considering there was no snow cover. Imagine how cold it would have been with snow cover.
 
At 2 PM, KCHS was 75 while Folly Beach, which is only 15 miles south, was only 49! That's what the historic cold longevity that ended just two days ago will do.
 
Will be interesting to see if the gfs trends towards the Euro and cmc. Given the gfs bias with a strong northern stream

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Looks like nothing brewing in TX through Tues on 18z GFS
Edit: it's trying on Tuesday , let's see what happens, looks like it will be supressed
 
Storm5 said:
Gfs isn't even close to the Euro and cmc at H5. ------ model

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That's a big improvement over the last few runs of the GFS , but looks like it brings it out way too late, as cold is sliding out
 
Someone read our warm posts today and Goofy's been drinkin' accordingly for Happy Hour ...

2018010918_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_RH_372.gif

... in fact, Goofy insists on closing the bar after last call ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Someone read our warm posts today and Goofy's been drinkin' for Happy Hour ...

View attachment 2640

... in fact, Goofy insists on closing the bar after last call ... :eek:
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Yeah, Happy Hour has an additional Arctic high dropping down. This run has 3 more warm days followed by cold 1/14-18 followed by 3 warm days followed by cold again 1/23-25.
Also, the EPS is trending colder. If things were to keep trending the way of happy hour, any warm dominated period would be delayed even more as that is more back and forth through 1/25. For the record, I have the period 1/16-2/28 warm dominated with at least 2 warmer than normal for the SE as a whole.
 
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MBell said:
Made it up to 56 this afternoon. Felt amazing!


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I retract that. After looking at the data on whnderground there is a GAp from 1:45 to 5:30 *rolls eyes*. The actual station is showing it bit 58.4. Anywho. Looks like it turns colder again this weekend..


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Could someone take time out of their night to make a temperature departure from average assessment on the months of, say, April/May 2017 through the first week of January 2018 for a major city in the southeast such as Asheville Raleigh or Greenville? I'm willing to bet it defies the warming tend we've seen the past 10+ years
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Could someone take time out of their night to make a temperature departure from average assessment on the months of, say, April/May 2017 through the first week of January 2018 for a major city in the southeast such as Asheville Raleigh or Greenville? I'm willing to bet it defies the warming tend we've seen the past 10+ years
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It is still not enough data to come to a sound conclusion. The Jan cold outbreak we just experienced was an extreme and will skew such a small data set.

It might would be better to do all the Januarys from the 1940s through 2018 to get more accurate numbers.
 
Shawn said:
It is still not enough data to come to a sound conclusion. The Jan cold outbreak we just experienced was an extreme and will skew such a small data set.

It might would be better to do all the Januarys from the 1940s through 2018 to get more accurate numbers.
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Yeah. I was just thinking that we had a very pleasant summer in the south. I guess I was wondering how summer 2017 fall 2017and winter 2018 matches up against the rest since winter 2017 really skewed our numbers last year. Maybe when this winter is over we can do that and it will be more sensible
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah. I was just thinking that we had a very pleasant summer in the south. I guess I was wondering how summer 2017 fall 2017and winter 2018 matches up against the rest since winter 2017 really skewed our numbers last year. Maybe when this winter is over we can do that and it will be more sensible
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only a few months fell slightly below normal in 2017 here in CHA... June & Aug were just barely below normal, less than a degree, while July was around +1. Sept was -.1,Both Oct and Nov around +2, Dec started off one week above normal, then the cool spells began. Overall 2017 was AB, but not as much as previous two years. CHA has not had a -2 degree BN month since Feb 2015, which was -8.1. (and I didn't mention climate change once... oops).
 
image.png image.png Also something to maybe keep an eye on. Models are keeping a LP left behind from the big Tennessee storm this weekend and CMC has moved it 250 miles back towards the east coast of Florida in 1 run
 
1300m said:
Ok GaWx I'll do this in two posts. I did all of the dates you requested, then I selected six more of my own. Yours first:

2/4/1967
2.4.67.gif

2/4/1973
2.4.73.gif

2/25/1980
2.25.80.gif

3/19/1983
3.19.83.gif

2/1/1984
2.1.84.gif

1/2/1988
1.2.88.gif

2/12/1989
2.12.89.gif

2/19/2015
2.19.2005.gif


Of these, I would say three could be classified as west-based neg. NAO's (2/4/73, 1/2/88, 2/19/2005) and 3/19/83 may have been a neg. NAO a day or two before but I didn't check.
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1300,
Thanks very much for taking the time to post these! Of these, 2/4/1967, 2/25/1980, 3/19/1983, 2/1/1984, and 2/12/1989 look like pretty solid west based +NAOs based on the solid cold anomalies dominating Greenland and nearby. So, i don't think their high regularly calculated +NAOs are deceiving. Also, you accidentally posted 2/19/2005 instead of 2/19/2015. If you get a chance, please post 2/19/2015 and/or edit your post.
 
image.png At 180 it's actually just off the coast of Cuba. Let's move it further north in the gulf and we may be able to tap into it. Or not..we'll see
 
The 0Z GFS is awfully cold in the SE, especially TN and vicinity but cold throughout, for practically a full week centered on 1/16. It isn't nearly as cold for N FL/SE GA/Carolinas as 1/1-7 but that's because that was historic. That doesn't mean this isn't still repectable solid cold being shown for mid month. The progged mid-month cold keeps getting longer and stronger. If this trend continues and especially if we were to get still another cold shot late month like the Happy Hour was showing (0Z doesn't have that), we could end up with quite a cold January overall.
 
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Goog gosh, fwiw, look at how much less warm is the 0Z GEFS vs prior runs for late month. It is warm for only 1/20-22 before turning colder once more.
 
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Euro was pretty cold too, at 12z... thinking Nina climo is in the back pocket for a moment, at least. Wavy Pacific but still cool climo. January is gonna end up pretty dramatically BN for the SE Us I think.
 
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