Whatever source it's from, looks a lot better than nothing, like it showed last run! Maybe time for a thread!?Euro snow-depth (what sticks around) through 1/04/18:
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Pattern Jarring January
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Quite possibly. I say start it if the 12z GFS holds on to it later this morning. It's become the focal point of this thread now, so it likely needs to be on it's own to likely fail like the Thurs/Friday event; Lol.
Finally got some vort maps, and notice the snowfall on the Euro is not from the energy for the New Years idea the GFS has. That wave never dives, which therefore, GFS is still on it's own right now with that idea.
The snow comes around the 3rd-4th instead.
The snow comes around the 3rd-4th instead.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I personally think that wave or the one behind it has the best shot to give us a good hit here in the SE US, and has been consistently in the EPS for the past several days or so. However, the Euro technically had the storm the GFS shows near New Years with snow falling around Charleston. Well we at least have the GFS, Euro, UKMET, & German with at least something in the past run or two.:. Should name the next thread New Tears instead of New Years because our hearts are likely to get broken
packfan98
Moderator
For those wanting to get caught up on any potential winter weather, Matthew East's daily video is a great place to start:
6z GFS maintains a pretty cold pattern virtually through the end of the run. The expected flip to winter cancel may not be as easy as we were anticipating.
MichaelJ
Member
It's the GFS, and I am going to say that anytime someone post a GFS comment after 24 hours out. A model this bad deserves it! (don't know why this is all bolded, I didn't do it!)
strongwxnc
Member
Matt just doing his thing by making great videos all year long
Would be sad not to score on one of these.
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Guess the GFS is good if we get the NW trend as usual.
BHS1975
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like the Euro adopted the GFS's cold to some extent overnight. Even the EPS has several teens days here and cooled in the long range several degrees.
Eps loves the second system next week
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, and If you think about it, ignore everything up until then, because that is right at a pattern change point. Storms like to come out of the end of a pattern, not in the middle of one. It's going to be cold beforehand though.Eps loves the second system next week
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tractor girl
Member
shhh. We only discuss the NW trend only when it falls in line with the wishcasts.
Lol the euro completely caved to the gfs in regards to the cold. Much colder now
I hope that one of these upcoming “threats” turns into something. We will have created the almost ideal background environment for a snowstorm: Short days, low sun angle, very cold antecedent ground temps, snow cover to the north and west, and a bitterly cold air mass over us or on the doorstep. The ONLY thing we need for the perfect winter storm is snow!!
The CFS for January looks like hot garbage though. How do the Weeklies look? Haven’t seen any posts about them, so I assume they still look like trash too.
00z eps was colder as well
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00z euro has the wave in NW and sends it over the top of the ridge which is a change and it’s what the gfs has been doing all along . Didn’t dig the wave and it was absorbed into the northern stream. Huge improvement vs previous runs
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Can still easily get a system around New Years. In fact I’m a little more optimistic now after seeing the changes on the 00z euro