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Pattern Jarring January

1300m said:
Oh yeah I knew you were referring to the collective southeast. And like others have been saying, for much of the region it's been a historic winter. Which is what makes it hurt all the more!
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This was one of the primary motivations for me to start reanalyzing thousands of case studies for NC going back over the last 120 years or so. I'm really curious to see which parts of the state are suffering the most and in all likelihood once I'm able to reconstruct the snowfall data for hundreds of locations across the state, odds are Raleigh is not hurting the most even though we're obviously hurting a lot. Also likely going to see more robust results wrt patterns that are most favorable for snowfall in RDU, GSO, & CLT, FAY, etc when integrating over a surrounding region of the state
 
Webberweather53 said:
This was one of the primary motivations for me to start reanalyzing thousands of case studies for NC going back over the last 120 years or so. I'm really curious to see which parts of the state are suffering the most and in all likelihood once I'm able to reconstruct the snowfall data for hundreds of locations across the state, odds are Raleigh is not hurting the most even though we're obviously hurting a lot. Also likely going to see more robust results wrt patterns that are most favorable for snowfall in RDU, GSO, & CLT, FAY, etc when integrating over a surrounding region of the state
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It feels like the past few years everyone around to the west, south, and even east have had bigger storms than Wake County. The exception I can think of is the 2010 Christmas storm.
 
Those of us SE of I-85 in NC have had many snowstorms ruined with sleet and freezing rain. Mixed bag storms seem more common now than pure snowstorms. We know how to mix!
 
Webberweather53 said:
This was one of the primary motivations for me to start reanalyzing thousands of case studies for NC going back over the last 120 years or so. I'm really curious to see which parts of the state are suffering the most and in all likelihood once I'm able to reconstruct the snowfall data for hundreds of locations across the state, odds are Raleigh is not hurting the most even though we're obviously hurting a lot. Also likely going to see more robust results wrt patterns that are most favorable for snowfall in RDU, GSO, & CLT, FAY, etc when integrating over a surrounding region of the state
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I suspect the last 5-7 years or so will show a different result than the totality of your research. Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing the analysis. Always like looking over your research.
 
packfan98 said:
Those of us SE of I-85 in NC have had many snowstorms ruined with sleet and freezing rain. Mixed bag storms seem more common now than pure snowstorms. We know how to mix!
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May be related to the lack of a true west-based NAO and/or lack of a persistent STJ. We've had a lot of -EPO, which seems to support Miller Bish type activity around here. I remember growing up, I would watch The Weather Channel and see snow in TX and see that move across the deep south and into the SE. Now, you see snow in TX and it either evaporates as it moves east (i.e. gets crushed) or it moves from TX up through AR into IL and MI (i.e. Lakes Cutter) or it moves just up the west side of the Apps before reforming along the coast (i.e. Miller B).
 
A west-based -NAO with an active STJ with the coldest air on our side of the globe. What are weather patterns you'll never see again?, for $1000, Alex.
 
Related to the above discussion, here are the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950 or about one every 3 winters on average:


-1/19/1955

- 12/11/1958

- 3/2-3/1960

- 3/9/1960

- 2/26/1963

- 1/25-7/1966

- 2/9/1967

- 3/1/1969

- 1/7-8/1973

- 2/18-9/1979

- 3/1-2/1980

- 1/13-14/1982

- 3/24/1983

- 2/6/1984

- 1/7-8/1988

- 2/17-8/1989

- 1/24-5/2000

- 1/2-3/2002

- 2/26-7/2004

- 12/25-6/2010

- 2/24-6/2015

Really since 2000, they haven't been far off the 3/decade average. The 1990s were a shutout. The 1980s and 1960s were big overperformers with each having 6 vs the longterm average of only 3/decade. Perhaps the 1980s spoiled some folks into thinking that was normal.
 
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BHS1975 said:
And 95-96 where we had back to back smaller events and it stayed cold in between with a slab of ice on the ground for over a week.


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Wasn't the 1993-94 winter also very cold and snowy across much of the US ?
 
GaWx said:
Related to the above discussion, here are the 21 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms since 1950 or about one every 3 winters on average:


-1/19/1955

- 12/11/1958

- 3/2-3/1960

- 3/9/1960

- 2/26/1963

- 1/25-7/1966

- 2/9/1967

- 3/1/1969

- 1/7-8/1973

- 2/18-9/1979

- 3/1-2/1980

- 1/13-14/1982

- 3/24/1983

- 2/6/1984

- 1/7-8/1988

- 2/17-8/1989

- 1/24-5/2000

- 1/2-3/2002

- 2/26-7/2004

- 12/25-6/2010

- 2/24-6/2015

Really since 2000, they haven't been far off the 3/decade average. The 1990s were a shutout. The 1980s and 1960s were big overperformers with each having 6 vs the longterm average of only 3/decade. Perhaps the 1980s spoiled some folks into thinking that was normal.
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Looks like RAH is due
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks like RAH is due
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Not that due though. They've had 5 since 2000 and one 3 years ago. Not far off at all vs average of just under one every 3 years frequency since 1950.

If we were in the late 1990s, then I'd say bigtime overdue.
 
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The EPS has ridiculous spread for month's end, lots of variation in the placement of the ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern North America
 
^ Thanks. I was wondering if I Rip Van Winkle'ed through the 2015 one!
 
1300m said:
RDU has not had a 6"+ single storm snowfall since 12/26/2010. That 2015 period you reference was from two entirely different systems. And the second one started off as rain and ended as sleet, again RDU's numbers can be quite deceiving with all the sleet.

accum.20150224.png


accum.20150226.png
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My bad on treating the two as one storm. So, the 2nd one produced 5.1" of SN/IP, which means they just missed a 6" SN/IP in 2/2015. So, in that regard, RAH is overdue for a 6"+ storm.

2015-02-24 30 19 24.5 -21.8 40 0 0.09 1.4 T
2015-02-25 46 18 32.0 -14.5 33 0 0.36 1.9 1
2015-02-26 35 28 31.5 -15.3 33 0 0.72 3.2 4

This means they've had 20 6"+ storms since 1950 rather than 21 assuming those 20 were from just one storm or one every 3.4 years. They did just fine 2000-2010.

I count all SN and IP toward the 6" as do the records since 1950. Many storms have had a mix of SN and IP. Why not count it? It all goes toward accumulation and the sleet is a much hardier accumulation per inch. 1" of sleet is on average like ~2.5" of SN in water content/staying power.

I still think some folks were spoiled by the heavy overproducing of the 1980s,
 
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Maaaaaaaaaaybeee it's possible this could yield work into something over the next 6 days. Of course, the standard caveats of needing a sharp PNA and trough axis farther west apply:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png
 
This jarring January is lit. The wind has been howling 15-20 most the afternoon and I am up at 62.2! It feels like spring is here for a day or two anyways.


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1300m said:
Of all the wintry modes of precipitation, sleet is by far the biggest waster of liquid-equivalent. And I've lived through numerous snow to sleet storms. Sleet doesn't accumulate on top of snow, it falls through it and compacts the snow accumulation you have. Others may love sleet, that's fine. Me personally, I'd be fine if I never saw another sleet pellet in my life.
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OMG, I hope Tony doesn't read this. ;)

Different strokes for different folks. I get what you're saying. But what I'm saying is that if a storm has both sleet and snow and still achieves 6" of total accumulation, that's even more impressive than a pure 6" snow since it is harder to do as you pretty much stated/has more water content.

I learned to love sleet in ATL in 2/1979. I never had thought of sleet accumulating til the great 2/1979 4.2" sleetstorm. That storm was forecasted to be largely snow. So, when it turned to sleet very early on, I was initially very disappointed as I wanted to see a multi-inch snowstorm and also the sleet didn't look pretty while falling. I figured at that point that the storm wasn't going to be a big deal after all. And boy was I wrong! As the storm continued, I started noticing the sleet was piling up and looking like snowcover. I started to love the loud sound of sleet! And talk about staying power!

Yes, it would have been 10" if it all had fallen as snow. But I was more than happy with my 4" of sleet/concrete. OMG that was a huge mess and it melted so slowly!
 
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A full on four inch sleet storm would be fun. But it usually just screws up snow for me and I don't get much of either. Toss in a little zr for good measure, and you have a wintry mixed bag of sucktitude.
 
1300m said:
This is very true, and a valid point. My only counter to that is often this stuff is measured on a snow board and you never see that much on the actual ground when it's a mixed event and that is what I'm really getting at when I say it's "deceiving". Perhaps I could have phrased it a little better!

You're also right that if you can get a good base of sleet and then snow on top of that it really does have a lot longer staying power. I think a lot of the sleet bitterness for me revolves around Jan. 2017, when every model under the sun 24 hours out (except the NAM!!) painted us in 12" of snow with no warm nose to only end up with about 2" of sleet/snow accumulation due to a multitude of factors (rain to start, then sleet and light snow to finish).
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The ~0.50" of ZR and ~0.25" of sleet was an incredible base for the 2" of snow that SAV received on top of it all last week. As long as it stayed cold (highs in 40s and lows in 20s), the snow in shaded areas hardly melted! It became like little glaciers.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If you say Raleigh is overdue for a 6" snowstorm then I guess Atlanta is due also since it's been 35 years !
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One thing to note, IS that they measure in the middle of a runway median only at the BUSIEST AIRPORT IN THE WORLD, very stupid...many many parts of ATL in the city limits had 6 in or more Dec 8th, and years before as well. The airport has a massive heat island effect so thier measurement readings are never accurate.
 
BPATL said:
One thing to note, IS that they measure in the middle of a runway median only at the BUSIEST AIRPORT IN THE WORLD, very stupid...many many parts of ATL in the city limits had 6 in or more Dec 8th, and years before as well. The airport has a massive heat island effect so thier measurement readings are never accurate.
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It's not a bad place to get an average. You folks NW of the city almost always score, just like Dec 8.
 
BPATL said:
One thing to note, IS that they measure in the middle of a runway median only at the BUSIEST AIRPORT IN THE WORLD, very stupid...many many parts of ATL in the city limits had 6 in or more Dec 8th, and years before as well. The airport has a massive heat island effect so thier measurement readings are never accurate.
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Yeah it doesn't make sense. I mean in Carrollton I've seen at least 3 snows of 6" in the last 30 years and yet the airport hasn't had any ? That makes no sense at all.
 
tractor girl said:
You're still slightly WNW of the city, so it makes sense that you see more snow.
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No, Carrollton is actually south of I-20 which means it's slightly south in latitude of the city. Atlanta averages just as much snow as Carrollton so there's no reason why Atlanta should have gone 35 years without having a 6" snowfall.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
No, Carrollton is actually south of I-20 which means it's slightly south in latitude of the city.
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You are far west of the city and barely south of 20. My point stands those to the west and north of the city almost always get snow where folks to the east and actual south of the city do not. The airport is a good spot otherwise people would have the wrong idea about Atlanta getting snow all the time. A LOT of people in Atlanta did not see any snow in our Dec event. It was frustrating to be one of those individuals.
 
tractor girl said:
You are far west of the city and barely south of 20. My point stands those to the west and north of the city almost always get snow where folks to the east and actual south of the city do not. The airport is a good spot otherwise people would have the wrong idea about Atlanta getting snow all the time. A LOT of people in Atlanta did not see any snow in our Dec event. It was frustrating to be one of those individuals.
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I've always wondered why areas west of I-85 seem to get more snow than areas east of I-85.
 
Gfs keeps improving at H5 . We just need the NS to bacl just a little to allow a more SW. Like previous runs showed

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1300m said:
This is very true, and a valid point. My only counter to that is often this stuff is measured on a snow board and you never see that much on the actual ground when it's a mixed event and that is what I'm really getting at when I say it's "deceiving". Perhaps I could have phrased it a little better!

You're also right that if you can get a good base of sleet and then snow on top of that it really does have a lot longer staying power. I think a lot of the sleet bitterness for me revolves around Jan. 2017, when every model under the sun 24 hours out (except the NAM!!) painted us in 12" of snow with no warm nose to only end up with about 2" of sleet/snow accumulation due to a multitude of factors (rain to start, then sleet and light snow to finish).
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1300/Rain Cold/SD,
Do you know if 2/26-7 6.5" SN/IP was all from one storm? Per the hourlies, there was a four hour break between the 0.12" of 2/26, when there was 2.0", and the 0.55" of 2/27, when there was 4.5".

2004-02-26 38 31 34.5 -12.3 30 0 0.12 2.0 0
2004-02-27 46 30 38.0 -9.0 27 0 0.55 4.5 2
 
GaWx said:
1300/Rain Cold/SD,
Do you know if 2/26-7 6.5" SN/IP was all from one storm? Per the hourlies, there was a four hour break between the 0.12" of 2/26, when there was 2.0", and the 0.55" of 2/27, when there was 4.5".

2004-02-26 38 31 34.5 -12.3 30 0 0.12 2.0 0
2004-02-27 46 30 38.0 -9.0 27 0 0.55 4.5 2
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I just remember getting screwed again. That’s the only memory that got imprinted, unfortunately.
 
GaWx said:
1300/Rain Cold/SD,
Do you know if 2/26-7 6.5" SN/IP was all from one storm? Per the hourlies, there was a four hour break between the 0.12" of 2/26, when there was 2.0", and the 0.55" of 2/27, when there was 4.5".

2004-02-26 38 31 34.5 -12.3 30 0 0.12 2.0 0
2004-02-27 46 30 38.0 -9.0 27 0 0.55 4.5 2
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Hey Larry. I recall you telling me that ATL got a foot of snow in one month before if I remember correctly. When was the month and year of this occurrence? Also, when was the ATL's snowiest season/year on record and how many inches? Thanks.
 
Storm5 said:
Gfs keeps improving at H5 . We just need the NS to bacl just a little to allow a more SW. Like previous runs showed

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Thing I'm worried about is if we get the NS to back off too much it may not be cold enough to support snow. Hopefully I'm wrong
 
GaWx said:
1300/Rain Cold/SD,
Do you know if 2/26-7 6.5" SN/IP was all from one storm? Per the hourlies, there was a four hour break between the 0.12" of 2/26, when there was 2.0", and the 0.55" of 2/27, when there was 4.5".

2004-02-26 38 31 34.5 -12.3 30 0 0.12 2.0 0
2004-02-27 46 30 38.0 -9.0 27 0 0.55 4.5 2
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I'm not sure if I'm mixing storms here but I remember one in this time period that dropped snow we got dry slotted. Precip started again mixed with ip then went back to snow overnight. Jan-Feb 04 was a great period for us and capped off the stellar Jan 2000-Feb 04 period. We had a long drought until Jan 09
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