Verbatim, there’s not much of a warm nose. However, I don’t buy any solution that predicts 36” unless it’s under 60 hrs.
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Pattern Januworry
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Usual caveats about model wind maps
Storm5
Member
For the record . We are not starting a thread for this potential system until at least 12z Monday .
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Not really support from the GEFS however of a system digging that far SW
The reason there is not much of a warm nose is because the system is so dynamic that the upward motion keeps the column cold… that’s actually the same thing that happened with the ‘93 Superstorm for CLT metro… the changeover to snow occurred as the low was moving directly overhead
Still thought looks like a good amount of hits and a good amount of just barely missed type of storms.. definitely great at this range .. everyone is still in the game on this one
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Well, that was a crazy run.
I don't think 36"+ happens in NC, but there have been players on the field for something to happen here.
If a bomb happens, it'll probably be further NE.
maybe it can bomb out and give DC some rain in the process instead of snow
I don't think 36"+ happens in NC, but there have been players on the field for something to happen here.
If a bomb happens, it'll probably be further NE.
maybe it can bomb out and give DC some rain in the process instead of snow
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Info on what DT thinks about upcoming systems in the middle of the article. If anyone cares at all here it is.
ya, its weird *from what I have looked at* there is really no support for this op solutions.
In all seriousness if you are watching these runs and thinking “am I getting punked” the answer is no. i think we’ve seen enough op run nukes + ensembles supporting essence of the idea to call this legit. There is top tier echelon potential here. Goes without saying this is a huge fish to reel in and the SE is a small boat, but will be fun to see where this goes!
packfan98
Moderator
The 18z GEFS has the western ridge and eastern trough further east than the operational. The signal is there, just too far east on this run it looks like to me.
Batman
Member
Toss every model run 7 days out if you are expecting verbatim results. Sun angle??? In January??? Our temps have been generally below average for 3 weeks...In January... Worried about soils temps???SMH
Next weekend has been showing the potential for something big somewhere in the SE for awhile. It is now getting within 7 days. It's not a slam dunk. It never is for the SE. But, it is certainly worth our attention.
YVille1128
Member
I think he was being sarcastic. I think he's a believer in the big picture potential.
Having two 1"+ snows from separate systems less than a week apart at Charlotte and some other places hasn't happened since way back in January of 2000, well before most wx bbs existed! That's how special this week has been.
Yeah, the GFS has snowfall rates of 3 inches an hour. Warm ground ain't doing squat lol.
It was sarcasm guys.....Good grief.
The GEFS is nada for here with a few good members for NC. Hope its wrong.
The GEFS is nada for here with a few good members for NC. Hope its wrong.
Stormlover
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in a good spot
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3.67 QPF and ONLY 31.7”?? Come on GFS.
Y'all really thought iLMRoss was serious about soil temps, etc? Come on, recognize the member that is making the post and then read a little further and you will see clearly. Wow
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We’ve dropped seven degrees since the sun went down.
To me this is a perfectly reasonable look from the ensembles. We’re in the ballpark. If it slides further east in subsequent runs then yeahhhhhh time to lower your expectationsin a good spot
GEFS took a step towards the euro/EPS, which means more ots, nothing to freak out over now but this setup could be prone to that
HurricaneSolomon
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Once again WRAL has jumped onboard with the “potential” for something to arise this coming weekend...
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Weathernerds.org's snowfall algorithm says that Roxboro jackpots.
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Valid for Buxton
@Myfrotho704_ and others, Tomer Burg has GEFS 500mb Vorticity + Geopotential Height ensembles on his site.
GEFS Panels
arctic.som.ou.edu
Gonna be funny when we go from that to a off the EC late bloomer tonight at 00z, GFS digs the S/W wayyyy SW of the ensemble mean
Oh wow these maps off tomers site is beautiful 
Fun fact about the parent trough/shortwave- it already exists. We are not utilizing combining table scraps/wave propagation in the yukon to form our shortwave.
Watch the 972 low south of the Aleutians stream poleward, round the ridge then start diving. that's our guy. I bet we see a little more run to run continuity with this. I've always thought that the big dogs bark very far in advance and this is no exception.
Watch the 972 low south of the Aleutians stream poleward, round the ridge then start diving. that's our guy. I bet we see a little more run to run continuity with this. I've always thought that the big dogs bark very far in advance and this is no exception.
wow
Member
zero CAD.. all dynamically driven by ULL.. temps marginal
And you know this. Specifics will change but you have to think we make a run at something significant again next weekend
Temps looked just like that on ensembles for this past storm we just went through .. they can see significant storm signals far out.. so I can see how this event was seen in terms of major temp changes and such (those usually come with some sort of big event on the beginning or end of them) so the fact that we continue to see this signal in our medium range right now is another great sign that something else is coming for someone in the SE
Flotown
Member
Anybody with more knowledge can tell me what he is alluding to???wide right ,cutter??