Feb 14 redux?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Something about the placement of that LP in the OV juxtaposed to NC doesn't look right for winter weather here.
iGRXY
Member
The midlands, I20 corridor, and western pee dee regions of SC get crushed with freezing rain.
EDIT: just checked the soundings and it's definitely a ZR sounding with temps at the surface in the mid 20's. That would be crushing.
EDIT: just checked the soundings and it's definitely a ZR sounding with temps at the surface in the mid 20's. That would be crushing.
Cary_Snow95
Member
GRIT IS HERE. Now it’s really winter ? welcome grit, excited to have you over here.I am such a virgin, this is my first post......."but don't call it a comeback! I've been here for years!" ?
What I mean by that is...the very first post I made on a weather board back in Dec 2007 was on Talkweather where I barged into an ongoing thread and got into a debate with the legend himself, SD, over the ideal placement of western ridging lol, lol...which is ironic given the upcoming pattern.
Anyway, hopefully I can add to the discussion in here and not take away from it or be a distraction.
From a pattern standpoint, we've had a bit of a delay here in early Jan as the Pac Jet extension has trended stronger and farther east on the modeling. The dates I'm watching are Jan 17-18 as this is at the point where the pattern retrogrades off the E Coast a bit, and the + anomalies are at a point along the Rocky Mtn divide. I want to see how this changes over the next week (i.e. whether it moves up in time or is delayed). I don't anticipate a delay, but we'll see.
Sexy look here on Jan 19...Aleutian Low with high pressure lined up from Bismark to China
iGRXY
Member
GEFS hinting at CAD in the 13th timeframe as well.
whatalife
Moderator
Playing quite the dangerous game on the gfs. Trough axis starts its retrogression but a -nao builds over top. Miller B ice storm city
packfan98
Moderator
Decent setup at the end of the GFS too -
Get out of here with that talk
griteater
Member
^ Thanks all for the welcome and kind words, appreciate it!
Cutoff low in Baja / SW states that is kicked east by a northern stream / Gulf of AK wave dropping down isn't an uncommon setup for a winter storm in the SE. Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 1982, early Feb 1979 all had it
griteater
Member
I think it makes sense that we could make an attempt at a period of -NAO. As the Pac jet retracts after Jan 10, the jet will get wavy and slow down in the NE Pac and along with W Coast....and should also do the same in the N Atlantic. Also, we should see some easterly momentum in the high latitudes with the ongoing westerly momentum in the mid-latitudes via the current AAM processes. The strength of the lower stratosphere will fight back though (would be better if it were in a weakened state)
It’s a Miller B set up so it’s gonna hand off to a coastal. Where exactly that handoff occurs would determine how much snow before it switches to sleet/ice storm. One thing about that look is that the CAD looks to be quite strong and deep, which would argue for a handoff further south like February 2014. Ultimately we’re just looking for a signal in that time frame right now.
lots of potential in this upcoming pattern and retrogression phases
1. Get some SS energy with confluence in the NE US/off the coast and get a Miller B/CAD setup
2. Get some energy to dig down from the western ridge and given lower heights in the ATL there would be some level of CAA/confluence, get a SS/Miller A setup
3. With a TPV in place under the -NAO block, get some S/S energy under this either from the Baja low or down from the PNA ridge
tons of potential with this pattern
1. Get some SS energy with confluence in the NE US/off the coast and get a Miller B/CAD setup
2. Get some energy to dig down from the western ridge and given lower heights in the ATL there would be some level of CAA/confluence, get a SS/Miller A setup
3. With a TPV in place under the -NAO block, get some S/S energy under this either from the Baja low or down from the PNA ridge
tons of potential with this patternAlso another thing to watch for in that type of set up would be development of a mesohigh in the mid-Atlantic that can help reinforce CAD….this is something that wouldn’t be picked up on until short range models, but with the snowpack that will be in place to our north, it certainly is a possibility. In February 2015, many on this board including myself were saved from a crippling ZR event by a mesohigh that formed just to our north. It turned what was headed to be a widespread .50-.75” ice accrual into a 1-2” sleet event with much lower ice.
smast16
Member
I measured on the roof of the car, and had 2" during the heavy stuff, and 1.5" at the end.
Slacks annihilatedWow!
Stephenb888
Member
Why does the cold always retreat when the precipitation starts rolling in? What does it take to have cold move in and stay in place the entire duration of a storm without warming up?
