Gfs now showing something similar, looks warmer tho
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah, the -AO returning mid month per todays GEFS is interesting to say the least. That’s never a bad thing. Hoping it is real.
This might be interesting 
Also will be key how strong that arctic front is that delivers cold air to the region .. looks fairly stout but maybe a bit shallow which allows cold air to retreat a little quicker than we would like for this coming down the pipe
Broken024
Member
Need that high to win the race east
Yeah I don’t really have much hope that we could get good west based -NAO in the next couple weeks. I am more interested that the AO could go back negative.
Broken024
Member
Hmm
I would like to live in a CAD location with this look
Well this is helpful 
With the amount of snow pack that is being put down in the coming days over the mid-Atlantic and NE, any CAD set up has a great chance to overperform… definitely a change from the anemic CAD set ups we’ve seen the last several years
iGRXY
Member
Almost a 1040 high sliding out ahead. With CAD building in. Very interesting look.
Probably gonna get sheared but this look reminds me of early December 2018 with split flow/active subtropical jet stream/active southern stream, really something to watch as the icon shows something similar, only thing that could be fixed is the confluence more SW but slightly quicker and or a quicker SS wave 
LeConte got 10”, probably safe to infer other spots in the Smokies are in the 8-12”.
Man that was frustrating. Looked like for all the world it was on its way.
I like the pieces being on the table but a storm NOT showing up more than likely if you get a storm to show up 180-240 and you’re in the thick of it you’re probably not going to be in the thick of it at hour 80-120 .. we like to trend things better as we enter the medium range most of the time with our successful winter storms .. 2010 being an exception obviously lol and maybe 2018 too
Can’t hate this set up for our 15-19 time period 
What does “in the thick of it” mean? Are you saying it’s better to have a storm up to 80-120 or 180-240?
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The key right now is that pieces continue to be there in that time frame. There is just a lot of pieces of energy flying around and it will be hard for these models to latch onto them.
I know the 15th-20th time frame is our best shot but man you have pieces here around this time frame, you have troughing in the NE US clipping us acting as confluence with high pressure following behind, and a active Subtropical jet stream, could easily sneak a legitimate wintry CAD/Miller B setup with this look 
Where’s the lotion 