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Pattern Januworry

Stephenb888 said:
Why does the cold always retreat when the precipitation starts rolling in? What does it take to have cold move in and stay in place the entire duration of a storm without warming up?
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This may sound weird, but we have to work hard to earn a good winter storm in the SE. It's like trying to put together a team that can win the Super Bowl. I'm a Philadelphia Eagles fan even though I've lived in the Charlotte area almost all of my life. It took me 30 years of being a fan before I got to enjoy a Super Bowl win - makes it sweeter in the end
 
Chazwin said:
Also another thing to watch for in that type of set up would be development of a mesohigh in the mid-Atlantic that can help reinforce CAD….this is something that wouldn’t be picked up on until short range models, but with the snowpack that will be in place to our north, it certainly is a possibility. In February 2015, many on this board including myself were saved from a crippling ZR event by a mesohigh that formed just to our north. It turned what was headed to be a widespread .50-.75” ice accrual into a 1-2” sleet event with much lower ice.
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Yea from anecdotal observation, it seems that most of the time CAD NC areas get saved from what could be considered crippling ice effects because precip type trends more IP than ZR as it gets closer to onset. That's why I don't get too concerned about heavy ZR until it's shown within 3 days or so.
 
griteater said:
This may sound weird, but we have to work hard to earn a good winter storm in the SE. It's like trying to put together a team that can win the Super Bowl. I'm a Philadelphia Eagles fan even though I've lived in the Charlotte area almost all of my life. It took me 30 years of being a fan before I got to enjoy a Super Bowl win - makes it sweeter in the end
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Then you have Charlotte and the Carolina panthers….
 
Stephenb888 said:
Why does the cold always retreat when the precipitation starts rolling in? What does it take to have cold move in and stay in place the entire duration of a storm without warming up?
Click to expand...
You gotta start learning a little on here. As been noted any times without perfect timing which rarely happens we need blocking in the northeast to keep the cold air from getting run out by low pressure systems.
Upper Level Lows sometimes work out when there's real cold to tap into but then it's track dependant for us.
Until we get High pressure in the northeast(it's being modeled after the 15th) we are 99% screwed here in the upstate.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
We’re definitely way passed due for an ice storm that is for sure I don’t remember the last time we had a decent one
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Way overdue in most of NC and SC. There is a better chance this year than we have had in a while too I think with this being a LaNina winter.. It has been since Dec 2005 that we had a major icestorm here. It is since Dec 2002 since most of us have seen a really serious icestorm. 2005 was really bad too but in a smaller area just outside of the mountains from northeast GA up through the foothills of NC.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Why does the cold always retreat when the precipitation starts rolling in? What does it take to have cold move in and stay in place the entire duration of a storm without warming up?
Click to expand...
I grew up about 4 hours up the road north from you and even there I can only remember 4 or 5 purely snow events that were big since 1980.
 
Chazwin said:
Also another thing to watch for in that type of set up would be development of a mesohigh in the mid-Atlantic that can help reinforce CAD….this is something that wouldn’t be picked up on until short range models, but with the snowpack that will be in place to our north, it certainly is a possibility. In February 2015, many on this board including myself were saved from a crippling ZR event by a mesohigh that formed just to our north. It turned what was headed to be a widespread .50-.75” ice accrual into a 1-2” sleet event with much lower ice.
Click to expand...
I remember that very well. We were not even supposed to have ZR here, much less any sleet, but around 1 inch of sleet is what we got thankfully. That was going to be all of that ice too with temps around 28 for many of us like you said, but we got that sleet. Northern GA got the ice from it.
 
Oconeexman said:
You gotta start learning a little on here. As been noted any times without perfect timing which rarely happens we need blocking in the northeast to keep the cold air from getting run out by low pressure systems.
Upper Level Lows sometimes work out when there's real cold to tap into but then it's track dependant for us.
Until we get High pressure in the northeast(it's being modeled after the 15th) we are 99% screwed here in the upstate.
Click to expand...
It has been a while since the cold was in place before precip. The result was a nice sleet storm for many of us.
 
JHS said:
Way overdue in most of NC and SC. There is a better chance this year than we have had in a while too I think with this being a LaNina winter.. It has been since Dec 2005 that we had a major icestorm here. It is since Dec 2002 since most of us have seen a really serious icestorm. 2005 was really bad too but in a smaller area just outside of the mountains from northeast GA up through the foothills of NC.
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ATL area had two major icestorms in 2005. Then came February of 2014, which had major impacts for the southern half of ATL metro eastward to Augusta and Columbia. This storm took down the famous Eisenhower tree at Augusta National.

Corrected for details about the tree
 
Was that the storm when everybody got stranded on the interstates?
GaWx said:
ATL area had two major icestorms in 2005. Then came February of 2014, which had major impacts for the southern half of ATL metro eastward to Augusta and Columbia. This storm killed the famous Eisenhower tree at Augusta National.
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