• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Januworry

This thing seems like it's going to bomb, it's just a matter of where:

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png


The northeast is more likely, for sure.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, it looks like it needs to dig to be good for us. Is it possible, Yes. Is it likely, No.
Click to expand...
And as fun as that 18z run was, it sure didn’t have a lot of ensemble support. I’d rather have that right now than any single OP run.
 
How often do you see what the GFS showed tonight (7 days out) and it end up being the opposite. What would we need to get this thing to take a path that would have it bombing around Florida or a little before?
 
Faco Thomas said:
The GFS is back to reality with this look. I never believed that a sub 970mb low off the NC bringing blizzard Conditions to Central and Eastern NC/SC was really posssible. Those storms are named after Nor'Easters and not south'easters for a reason.
Click to expand...
It's possible. No reason it couldn't, it's done it before.
 
Down to 27 after a high of 40...may have a good shot at 22 early in the morning.

Btw: The internet not working as well when it's cold deal is definitely legit, it's been in and out outside of for a few hours midday today for the past couple days.
 
GaWx said:
The temperatures here are being held up by clouds. Now it is 39.2, which still made for my coldest walk of the winter so far. This time last night was barely above freezing with rain.
Click to expand...
Glad you dodge the zr. I've got 26.4 here. The cold is holding in these days, with an active gulf. I expect to see a storm come up in a matter of two or three days with some timing. It's the sneaky ones that bolt from the blue, when it's cold. You kind of expect something when it's 70, but when the cold holds in, it's so often dry.
 
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2022

...DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT GAINESVILLE FLORIDA
YESTERDAY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT GAINESVILLE WAS ONLY 46 DEGREES YESTERDAY.
THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 47
DEGREES SET IN 1985.

THIS WAS THE LOWEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SINCE A HIGH OF 41
DEGREES SET ON 01-03-2018.
 
I actually really like the Euro. I was thinking it would blow it off the map but it actually digs the s/w farther west along with the western ridge axis being farther west. May not be the bomb everyone wanted but that could actually trend favorably over the next few days.
 
GaWx said:
The temperatures here are being held up by clouds. Now it is 39.2, which still made for my coldest walk of the winter so far. This time last night was barely above freezing with rain.
Click to expand...

In the last 3 hours, the clouds left thus allowing my temperature to fall 6 to 33.0. KSAV and KSVN both fell rapidly to 31 quite possibly setting the stage for the coldest of the winter so far and the coldest since the 26 of December of 2020 at KSAV.
 
stephend122080 said:
Favorable trend on the EPS, I generally like where this is headed. Ridge over the western US trending stronger and trough dipping further south over the Miss valley.
d91744b2ccf80f13eed47ada83224112.gif


Sent from my SM-A115U1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Energy is over the Pacific, so we probably won't get a better idea until Tuesday.

Sent from my SM-A115U1 using Tapatalk
 
Went to bed and it was 24. Got up and it's 28 here on the hill. Yesterday I was moving firewood form the rows to the porch and I was walking on top for the 4 or so inches of white concrete still left form last Sundays storm. Me being 250ish and arms full of wood not breaking the crust is pretty impressive. On the hills where I had to break it, there is still powder underneath. Pretty impressive cold for a week. The 40s for a few days will be a nice break though.

On next weekends threat, would like to start seeing a west trend soon. Looking at EPS, there were only a few members with any support. Looking out to 360, there were a handfull more that had something in the southeast but no real signal. The one thing I did notice was much less snow cover outside of the WVA mountains except for the handful of members with storms.

Edit: You guys in the foothills 15 degrees colder than me, just wild.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Went to bed and it was 24. Got up and it's 28 here on the hill. Yesterday I was moving firewood form the rows to the porch and I was walking on top for the 4 or so inches of white concrete still left form last Sundays storm. Me being 250ish and arms full of wood not breaking the crust is pretty impressive. On the hills where I had to break it, there is still powder underneath. Pretty impressive cold for a week. The 40s for a few days will be a nice break though.

On next weekends threat, would like to start seeing a west trend soon. Looking at EPS, there were only a few members with any support. Looking out to 360, there were a handfull more that had something in the southeast but no real signal. The one thing I did notice was much less snow cover outside of the WVA mountains except for the handful of members with storms.

Edit: You guys in the foothills 15 degrees colder than me, just wild.
Click to expand...
I hate to sound like you know who, but this is the time frame where we often see muted or far east solutions or no system at all. My guess as to why this happens is sampling. But if we don't see it coming back by Tuesday or 0z Wednesday, we can probably write it off. At this lead, I like that the models generally still have the storm but it's just too far east and doesn't develop quickly enough.
 
looks like 00z models were ok but brought our features a little east last night. thanks to the last storm everyone’s probably up to date on what we need (little more se ridging, western ridge to shift west some, etc). still wonderful potential here but we need to make moves this model cycle
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top