Whats this ? 
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Look how far south the 0C line is. Goodness 
I was just about to say fro! We gotta be carful boys we’re clearly missing the threats that are right under our noses .. this is BEFORE donocane!! .. almost looks like this past storm to be completely honest! Multiple low pressures scooting along that boundary with cold air pressing in from the north .. Jesus 
Regarding the overall January pattern, just a quick run through the GFS model run shows legit chances of a winter storm for parts of this board's footprint every few days for the next 10-14 days and including the past two systems for much of the month of January. Not too shabby.
No I’m just stating this storm could be much bigger than modeled but the GFS. You just had the GFS loop posted.
Here we are after weeks of a cold pattern and after two winter storms and a novelty event.. we’re even getting a lot of people in the game this year everyone’s had some sort of “score” storm .. and yet we’re still tracking multiple threats UNDER 240 hours .. I just can’t believe this January pattern. I guess that’s what happens when peak climo meets a good storm pattern .. the GEFS for Donocane look absolutely salivating at this juncture. 
We are living in good times right now weather wise 
iGRXY
Member
I’m Tellinya, whenever models starting honking at a pattern change you need to add at least 7-10 days to that date. Models always try and rush the pattern change too fast. December is a perfect example of the models showing a change around the 21st to cold but quickly got pushed to the 3rd. See no difference here except it’s cold to warmth. As far as next weeks system goes, you give me a phase and trough digging well into the gulf and I’ll gladly take my chances that says that’s a board wide hit. Especially I20 north.
This tells me we aren’t done yet by any stretch of the imagination 
Shaggy
Member
That's a beautiful map.for me but realistically that would never hold in this range and this one is primed to cut inland.
The CMC is the worst case. Misses all three s/w phases. Amazing, right on the cusp of nothing or a triple jet phase SE monster.
Shaggy
Member
Leave that low out there and we would be go for another big SC NC hit
what if in some alternate reality we hit on both of these..
Comparing the 12z CMC / UKMet / GFS gives a feel for the goal posts with the wave handling
CMC has a stronger GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and the wave digging thru the Rockies splits with one piece tucking down into AZ. So the splitting wave packet leads to a less consolidated system over the SE
UKMet has a weaker GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and the wave diving down into the SE isn't as strong and consolidated
GFS also has a strong GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and it's in between the CMC and UKMet...it tries to tuck a piece of the wave into AZ, but then kicks it out and a the whole wave sharpens in the SE
Just want to stay in the ballpark at this time range with a super-ensemble of Op and Ensemble member runs
CMC has a stronger GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and the wave digging thru the Rockies splits with one piece tucking down into AZ. So the splitting wave packet leads to a less consolidated system over the SE
UKMet has a weaker GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and the wave diving down into the SE isn't as strong and consolidated
GFS also has a strong GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and it's in between the CMC and UKMet...it tries to tuck a piece of the wave into AZ, but then kicks it out and a the whole wave sharpens in the SE
Just want to stay in the ballpark at this time range with a super-ensemble of Op and Ensemble member runs
Last edited:
Oconeexman
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All in all there's a decent shot here for sure. Thanks grit!Comparing the 12z CMC / UKMet / GFS gives a feel for the goal posts with the wave handling
CMC has a stronger GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and the wave digging thru the Rockies splits with one piece tucking down into AZ. So the splitting wave packet leads to a less consolidated system over the SE
UKMet has a weaker GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and the wave diving down into the SE isn't as strong and consolidated
GFS also has a strong GOAK trough / BC ridge spike and it's in between the CMC and UKMet...it tries to tuck a piece of the wave into AZ, but then kicks it out and a the whole wave sharpens in the SE
Just want to stay in the ballpark at this time range with a super-ensemble of Op and Ensemble member runs
RollTide18
Member
I’ll definitely take these looks a week out, hoping the central Deep South can score, long overdue for a big storm here.
Shaggy
Member
This is in no way a prediction or scientific but some of my best winters had cyclic repeating storms. I wanna say it was maybe 2009 we had a storm every 7-9 days and they all delivered
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
February-March 1980 comes to mind, which of course culminated with a big dog.
Euro gonna miss the first phase.
+PNA printer go brrrr 
Sheesh I still think we need to watch this little guy .. no one’s really looking at it but if a NW trend is what we usually get then this guy could be fun 
Lol 
Another classic situation we’re getting used to.. going to have to wait to get more observations of this wave .. data will be key with all of our storms originating from the NW diving down
Whiff on the Euro.
Interestingly enough this isn’t the donocane system .. this is a bit before .. a threat that has gone under our radar
Storm5
Member
Yeah the first system is a whiff on the euro now let's see what the main show does
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Both whiff.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If this is the system that I'm thinking of, on the long-range NAM, it's a cold core low that was reminding some of February 2020 (which was a surprise little event in Georgia) and has a thread.
Honestly...while I'm kind of wiped out...it feels as if with that system, that's what it'd have to be if it produces from what I was seeing.
Euro looked a lot like the UKMet - just didn’t dig quite sharp enough. Has some light stuff Friday with low tracking well off the coast
Not mad. Some key ingredients in play 
Euro was a big dull nothing burger. Things seem like they are trying to avoid eastern Arkansas, west and middle tenn and western Kentucky. Action to our north,south and east. Nada to our west. Had one good snow here and too small ones. But we can’t seem to time right even when we have the cold. Everything is south and east. Heck the way things are trending storms will go from gulf to Caribbean and then the Atlantic. Lots of wasted cold in the western half of the south.