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Pattern Januworry

SD said:
Looking at the mslp maps I think it's clipper dominated/late blooming. I would like to see at least one or 2 wild members in there but then again how many times have we had good means only to go to crap?
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From the looks of it, ensembles and operationals have the trough axis too far to the east, so cold and dry. In my experience, far out in time they tend to retrograde as we get closer, so I kind of like the look at this point. And as you mentioned , we don’t do well with good snow means, LOL!
 
wxdaniel said:
I hope they don't measure on patio tables..?
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Also need to expand east along the NC/VA border, Warrenton in Warren Co. officially had 1.6, Littleton in Halifax Co appeared by pics I saw to have around an inch, I had .5 here. Good looking map though
 
Heelyes said:
I feel left out, my mulch turned white!
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If you all could point me to peer reviewed resource. I would appreciate that. I tried the famous NC State winter storm database. Just went by CoCoRaHS. I didn’t mean to leave anyone out. Luckily, I saved the file.
 
wxdaniel said:
If you all could point me to peer reviewed resource. I would appreciate that. I tried the famous NC State winter storm database. Just went by CoCoRaHS. I didn’t mean to leave anyone out. Luckily, I saved the file.
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I think our observations are just as important as the observations of CoCoRaHS.
 
wxdaniel said:
If you all could point me to peer reviewed resource. I would appreciate that. I tried the famous NC State winter storm database. Just went by CoCoRaHS. I didn’t mean to leave anyone out. Luckily, I saved the file.
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No one is upset you "left them out", just passing along info to assist, we're all here to learn and contribute. Again the map looked professional good work.
 
SD said:
Looking at the mslp maps I think it's clipper dominated/late blooming. I would like to see at least one or 2 wild members in there but then again how many times have we had good means only to go to crap?
Click to expand...
Yeah it's a pattern that supports fairly fast movers and late developing systems, like you said. The north-Atlantic ridge won't help suppress and slow the flow, so we're having to rely on the PV, which often squashes waves. The position of the PV will make it hard for HP to lock into a favorable damming position.

That said, it's a decent pattern for timing something out. The model just isn't excited about any particular opportunity yet. But I bet if it continues to show this pattern shaping up, we'll see some nice fantasy systems and snow means on future runs.
 
Temps really look seasonable on the GFS which may not be a bad thing for wintery mischief.

At least that’s what I’m telling myself.

Too many times we have gotten burned by the PV shredder.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah it's a pattern that supports fairly fast movers and late developing systems, like you said. The north-Atlantic ridge won't help suppress and slow the flow, so we're having to rely on the PV, which often squashes waves. The position of the PV will make it hard for HP to lock into a favorable damming position.

That said, it's a decent pattern for timing something out. The model just isn't excited about any particular opportunity yet. But I bet if it continues to show this pattern shaping up, we'll see some nice fantasy systems and snow means on future runs.
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We have energy flying around. We have op runs with energy cut off around Baja. Some modeling has the trough too far east and broad, some models have it just right. Most importantly cold appears to be there. All the pieces are there. There are things I don't like, like ridging in the 50/50 region, +NAO etc. But no pattern is perfect and this one is workable. If we had to have a phase 8 MJO, a +PNA coupled to a -EPO, -AO, -NAO and a 50/50 low all together we'd never snow.
 
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