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Pattern Januworry

East on this run of the gfs, the 500mb look changes every run pretty drastically still. General idea is some kind of phased system is probable next weekend, but will it phase far enough west to impact us or will it phase late and crush New England


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NorthGaWinter4 said:
It’s just not the year for north Georgia. Losing everything to the East....
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This one is 7 days out at this range all long range models will have pretty big shifts one way are other just hope they all slowly starting closing in on same idea by Monday/Tuesday... or maybe don't the 12z GFS was a monster
 
malak05 said:
This one is 7 days out at this range all long range models will have pretty big shifts one way are other just hope they all slowly starting closing in on same idea by Monday/Tuesday... or maybe don't the 12z GFS was a monster
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Far too early to talk trends. We just have a signal, same with Tuesday. Fluctuations are too significant and Tuesday thus suite warmed a ton. Trends with recent storms have been clueless on certain elements until verification so we can still have 100s of miles of shifts within days.
 
NCSNOW said:
Oh yea. Perfect spot 6 days out. 991 as she blows off the coast. That was a decent shot eastern NC.

Dont sleep on mid week. Close enough to keep watching. Get low out of the way in NE, just a wrinkle away
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Got the weak low crossing Fla. Got the 0 line close by. I agree....just want the timing. Keep getting the shots, and one might hit a good bit of the viewing area instead of being so selective.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
It’s just not the year for north Georgia. Losing everything to the East....
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It's way too early for that. We have time for things to happen next week and beyond. Happy for the guys back east, especially our SC neighbors. I get it though. I am ready for something to happen our way but the small event last week kind of worked out.
 
GFS very similar to ICON. really pretty good.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
 
Arcc said:
Still a big bomb off the coast. Still lots of time for this one to change.
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This said, if the trend on the Euro continues its DOA right now. Looks like the reverse of the normal trend continues to happen this year where the northern stream speeds up and the southern slows down. Not a good trend to be seeing start again.
 
ajr said:
Seems like more ensemble support for a low forming closer to the coast?

View attachment 109574
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Gonna be lots of shifts in every direction. I wouldn’t pay attention to shifts until 100 hours out. Just need the storm signal to still be there 100 hours out.
 
For the next 10 days, both the Euro and GFS look supportive, pattern-wise of chilly and potentially wintry weather in the east. After that, at least on the GFS of, the pattern seems to come apart. Yesterday's 18z looked great but the 0z and 6z looked crappy. But things can change, and I haven't looked at the ensembles, the CFS, the Bleaklies, or any Strat or MJO stuff.

0z Euro D10

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_4.png

6z GFS D16

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65-3.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This sort of stuff excites me, the energy is already in Canada on Tuesday, this is about as good as a signal as you can get for this range, this has some big dog potential, everything is so classic. the western ridge, TPV near Hudson Bay, the hook. Woof View attachment 109630View attachment 109629
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I know I said I hated the setup yesterday, but I changed my mind. My concern is that this thing doesn't dig enough and can't develop until it gets to the northeast. Otherwise, lots of cold air is available.
 
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