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Pattern Januworry

Gfs that storm on 15th has my attention. No it’s not really showing anything. But boy it’s close to phasing


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A bit out in fantasy land though

Yeah that’s why I’m optimistic. Don’t want a perfect look. I’d rather have a signal and a good pattern and I think we have those two things.


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Also this...if we can hold pattern we’re going to have something to track mid January. She’s ripe, boys. Need a steep +PNA preferably with some split flow imo, energy diving out of Canada (common during Niña) and a wave entering Baja at our latitude. That’s the recipe for bigly success here. Always has been. Always will be.65014AA0-3E55-4A11-B606-B5CFB60BF77E.png
 


In the meantime, we have 3 glorious weeks of normal winter weather during the coldest month of the year climowise with this period averaging slightly BN temps and pretty close to normal precip. along with hints of Gulf activity. Compare this to where we were one month ago, when we were facing 4 weeks of mainly anywhere from solid AN to torch domination. Regardless of what does or doesn't happen after January 25th, I'm enjoying these last 2 days and am looking forward to the next 3 weeks, when 3-4 Arctic highs are likely to have a big influence.
 
and within range of some reality ... amazing ... ?
If that jet keeps diving in and out as modeled, we’re as golden as we’ll ever be. It would be great if we could lock it in for an extended period but that may be asking too much. We can certainly time a big one up in this type of pattern.
 
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