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Pattern Januworry

GFS very similar to ICON. really pretty good.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
 
Still a big bomb off the coast. Still lots of time for this one to change.
This said, if the trend on the Euro continues its DOA right now. Looks like the reverse of the normal trend continues to happen this year where the northern stream speeds up and the southern slows down. Not a good trend to be seeing start again.
 
Seems like more ensemble support for a low forming closer to the coast?

View attachment 109574
Gonna be lots of shifts in every direction. I wouldn’t pay attention to shifts until 100 hours out. Just need the storm signal to still be there 100 hours out.
 
For the next 10 days, both the Euro and GFS look supportive, pattern-wise of chilly and potentially wintry weather in the east. After that, at least on the GFS of, the pattern seems to come apart. Yesterday's 18z looked great but the 0z and 6z looked crappy. But things can change, and I haven't looked at the ensembles, the CFS, the Bleaklies, or any Strat or MJO stuff.

0z Euro D10

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_4.png

6z GFS D16

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65-3.png
 
This sort of stuff excites me, the energy is already in Canada on Tuesday, this is about as good as a signal as you can get for this range, this has some big dog potential, everything is so classic. the western ridge, TPV near Hudson Bay, the hook. Woof View attachment 109630View attachment 109629
I know I said I hated the setup yesterday, but I changed my mind. My concern is that this thing doesn't dig enough and can't develop until it gets to the northeast. Otherwise, lots of cold air is available.
 
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