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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NC special
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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More to the NW, maybe can filter in?
Are there ever lots of mixing issues here ? Or is it just a snow rain set up usually cause you em either on the east side which has wound up warm air or the west side which has wound up cold air
Crushed 
Going to wind up and come north?
Toeing a fine line here. Need a perfect phase. Too soon and it rubs the apps. Too late and it’s a whiff. Doable but lower than average probability. Energy is diving in the right spots though which is key. Signal still showing up. So everyone’s still in the game.
Dunno. I thought that about yesterday’s system but at this point anything is possible
Oh your talking about the storm, looks like it is on the GFS
I’m happy for now with this setup the 12z GFS output for the upstate. I would like to see more push from Iowa 1028mb a little stronger to try to avoid any kind of advection issues.
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Flotown
Member
Man it's gonna be a fun week of model watching
That was a major improvement for us back to the west. Should be some good ensemble members coming up, but like jimmy said it’s a fine line, but when is it not.
My dad got covid and wasn’t able to make the NC trip last weekend, he asked when the next big snow was…..we may just have to go the smokies next weekend if it doesn’t work out here.
My dad got covid and wasn’t able to make the NC trip last weekend, he asked when the next big snow was…..we may just have to go the smokies next weekend if it doesn’t work out here.
bnathanb1982
Member
Overall is that the same thing we should be worried about in NGA as well? With these setups yall folks in NC need it to bomb off the coast to get your big snow totals right? Sorry for the stupid questions in advance ?
Going to be some big totals on this run. Not the same monster as we saw on previous days, though.
perfect track for many...just wish we had more overall cold air available initially.
Where’s a 50/50 low when you need it?
I was thinking the same. The High over Iowa will work just don’t feel comfortable. Would like to see more CAD.
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Flotown
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West?
Oconeexman
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Agree this is absolute perfect timing or it's a no go on the gfs. Could easily turn into apps rubber or ots. Let's see what the euro has to say
bingcrosbyb
Member
12z GFS takes it from 1010mb to 987mb in about 16-24 hours. Close to textbook bomb.
The 12z GFS was January 2000.
Yep, a earlier digging system/earlier tilt is better there as well !!
Would like to see that PV dig in a bit more so we can tap into that cold air supply. Plenty of time to pull a rabbit out of the hat.
There's nothing stopping this system from being a Nor'easter or a inland/mountain cutter. No -NAO and the cold is marginal. I don't really like our chances as of now.
That AK ridge/weak rex/western ridge during the system tho ?
Alway hear only if we had a gulf low in January. lol
Just missed the big phase on the 12z GFS.
Not really, it's the same exact evolution.
We had a nice digging arctic wave phasing in with those really big ones in previous runs. Nothing is really off the table at this point. Could end up being a whiff, a marginal slopfest, or a generational storm. It's not a bad thing to at least have the option on the table. Most times, it isn't.
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- this is crazy we’re are trying to extend this pattern 
Don’t know where to put this since it kind of has to do with this storm.. if this storm makes a big impact and really gets that phase right it sets up a nearly great set up for the system right behind it but obviously our storm would have to set these conditions up .. so this is obviously fantasy land but I’m seeing signs of a double trouble sort of deal, storm wise, in this time frame (been seeing in GEFS members) 
See evolution here.. as to what I was talking about in previous post 
This looks like what happened to us in December with the warm pattern .. those big time patterns really do like to stay around past their due date
I really like this trend.
