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Pattern Januworry

bigstick10 said:
Hey GaWx love your insight. Wasn't January 21, 1985,, a day I will never forget in Atlanta, a La Nina year? Temps dropped from 56 to 14 in about 4 hours then down to -8 at KATL, I had -11..
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I was there! It was a very similarly strengthed 2nd year La Nina as a matter of fact that was preceded by a similarly very warm Dec. that also had a near record -PNA, was in the warm MJO phases, and was warmer than November of 1984. January came along with the left side MJO and a transition to very strong +PNA along with very strong -NAO/-AO and then came history with cold throughout the month highlighted by the monster cold front 1/21. What's different about Jan 2022 is that the forecast for the first half of January is neutral AO and slightly +NAO.
 
GaWx said:
I was there! It was a very similarly strengthed 2nd year La Nina as a matter of fact that was preceded by a similarly very warm Dec. that also had a near record -PNA, was in the warm MJO phases, and was warmer than November of 1984. January came along with the left side MJO and a transition to very strong +PNA along with very strong -NAO/-AO and then came history with cold throughout the month highlighted by the monster cold front 1/21. What's different about Jan 2022 is that the forecast for the first half of January is neutral AO and slightly +NAO.
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Thank you, you are quite an asset to this board.
 
GaWx said:
I was there! It was a very similarly strengthed 2nd year La Nina as a matter of fact that was preceded by a similarly very warm Dec. that also had a near record -PNA, was in the warm MJO phases, and was warmer than November of 1984. January came along with the left side MJO and a transition to very strong +PNA along with very strong -NAO/-AO and then came history with cold throughout the month highlighted by the monster cold front 1/21. What's different about Jan 2022 is that the forecast for the first half of January is neutral AO and slightly +NAO.
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Coincidentally, the record high that CLT set today of 78 broke the previous record of 74 on 1/1/1985
 
Chazwin said:
Coincidentally, the record high that CLT set today of 78 broke the previous record of 74 on 1/1/1985
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Yeah, I see that the first two days of January 1985 were mild though I didn't realize that was the old record high at Charlotte. Then the bottom fell out with January 4th-February 16th dominated by intense cold due to a bunch of Arctic highs. Only 9 of those 43 days didn't have a freeze and only 3 warmer than 35 at KATL! So, there was a lot more to the cold than just the historic 1/21 cold front though naturally that's what those of us around then remember the most by far about that winter. If only we could get the -AO/-NAO back later this month!
 
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GaWx said:
Yeah, I see that the first two days of January 1985 were mild though I didn't realize that was the old record high at Charlotte. Then the bottom fell out with January 4th-February 16th dominated by intense cold due to a bunch of Arctic highs. Only 9 of those 43 days didn't have a freeze and only 3 warmer than 35 at KATL! So, there was a lot more to the cold than just the historic 1/21 cold front though naturally that's what those of us around then remember the most by far about that winter. If only we had the -AO/-NAO back!
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I was only 8 that winter, but I do have some memory of that cold front on 1/21. It was a Sunday and the front actually came through while we were in church that morning. It was in the 30s when we went into church, and we came out it was snowing lightly with a coating on the ground and the temperature had dropped to 11… it was in the single digits most of the afternoon
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Got my new tempest set up just in time for the big front tomorrow. Oddly enough I’ve warmed from 65 to 68 in the last hour. Classic New Year’s Day temps ?
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I’m ready, too. Check out my 1968 Tempest!

098D7551-241E-47A4-B934-4DF55B31CE04.jpeg

It was a record high of 82 today here and Fayetteville, NC, tied its alltime January record high of 81!
 
The lack of tall ridging out west from this really hurts us in this case so it’s hard to dig AA6125E0-F3A0-4862-A56E-180ECAF0D200.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Another GFS and CMC run that have backed way off on the PNA ridging in the day ten timeframe. The extended cold spell advertised for this period is looking like a head-fake at this time.
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It’s not a head fake. It will go back and forth until it’s closer in time. A lot of people thought this coming week was a headfake as well.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Another GFS and CMC run that have backed way off on the PNA ridging in the day ten timeframe. The extended cold spell advertised for this period is looking like a head-fake at this time.
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We in the Carolinas truly do suck. Seeing Central Alabama and North Georgia possibly getting a suprise mini snowstorm ,while we watch the cold pattern was supposed to make to the eastern SE starting on the Jan 10-12 timeframe fading away quick is hard to watch. Also the MJO appears to be staying in phase 7 for a longer period of time,which the Models appears to be responding to that doesn't help neither.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Another GFS and CMC run that have backed way off on the PNA ridging in the day ten timeframe. The extended cold spell advertised for this period is looking like a head-fake at this time.
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Don’t know what you’re looking at but all the models I’m seeing show continued cold air pushing through the SE maybe not crazy arctic air but cold enough for winter mischief and storm chances and definitely nothing more than 1-2 warm days throughout the entire run
 
Um, we've gone to this:
gfs_z500a_namer_41.png

From this:
gfs_z500a_namer_45.png

CMC is similar, EURO OP too.
 
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